Cleveland Fed nowcast m/m as of today, vs. Bloomberg consensus. The nowcast is a mechanical prediction based on reported CPI and PCE, as well as daily oil prices and weekly gasoline prices.
Figure 1: CPI as reported (bold black, left log scale), Cleveland Fed nowcast (gray, left log scale), Bloomberg consensus (light blue +, left log scale), Quarter-on-Quarter annualized CPI headline inflation using nowcasts (red, right scale). Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed accessed 4/7, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
Here are some energy prices:
NY Fed Survey of Consumers median 1 year inflation expectations rose from 3.0% to 3.4% in March.
When is a war crime not a war crime?:
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/06/pentagon-iran-war-crime-accusations-00860468
Pentagon planners are looking for targets – bridges, desalinization plants, etc. – which are used by the military as well as by civilians. When the order comes to commit war crimes, our military will try to skirt violations of the letter of the law. The spirit, not so much.
Not a surprise to anyone following the news.
Domestic consumers of U.S. petroleum are in heavy competition with the rest of the world:
“U.S. exports of refined petroleum products hit a record high in March 2026, averaging 3.11 million barrels per day. According to data from shipping tracking firm Kpler, [up] from the 2.5 million barrels per day… in February 2026…”
https://www.vietnam.vn/en/xuat-khau-nhien-lieu-my-lap-ky-luc-3-11-trieu-thung-moi-ngay-trong-thang-3-2026
That’s a 24% m/m increase in refined petroleum exports. In recent years, the U.S. has imported about 2 million bpd of refined petroleum. I assume imports are down now, but I have no data. Keep in mind that China is scheduled to ship 600,000 bbls of crude per day from the U.S. in April, after ending its ban on purchases from the U.S.
December 2029 gasoline futures closed at $2.063 today, up from $1.83-$1.84 in late February, $1.64-$1.65 in early January. Market participants are pricing in substantial odds of elevated gasoline prices for at least the next three years.