Cleveland Fed nowcast m/m as of today, vs. Bloomberg consensus. The nowcast is a mechanical prediction based on reported CPI and PCE, as well as daily oil prices and weekly gasoline prices.

Figure 1: CPI as reported (bold black, left log scale), Cleveland Fed nowcast (gray, left log scale), Bloomberg consensus (light blue +, left log scale), Quarter-on-Quarter annualized CPI headline inflation using nowcasts (red, right scale). Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed accessed 4/7, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

Here are some energy prices:

NY Fed Survey of Consumers median 1 year inflation expectations rose from 3.0% to 3.4% in March.