Assuming April value persists into May and June.

Figure 1: WTI Net Oil Price, using previous 3 years (blue). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: EIA via FRED, and author’s calculations.

The three year version is due to Hamilton (J.Econometrics, 2003). See Jim’s recent review of oil prices and macroeconomy in the New Palgrave of Economics here.

The association between recession and NOP is unclear, or not as clear as the pre-2010 period. On the other hand, the correlation between NOP and PCE deflator inflation is more obvious.