Nominal and real exports are down.
Figure 1: Wisconsin goods exports, mn $/mo (blue), in mn 2000$/mo (red), seasonally adjusted by author using X-13. Wisconsin exports deflated by US export price index. Light orange shading denotes Trump 2.0 administration. Source: Census, BLS, and author’s calculations.
Manufacturing employment continues to decline, contra Mr. Trump’s promise that tariffs would rescue manufacturing employment.
Figure 2: Wisconsin manufacturing employment, 000’s (blue). Light orange shading denotes Trump 2.0 administration. Source: BLS, DWD.
Total private employment has essentially flatlined since September 2024.
Let’s put aside concern for all the lives lost, resources spent, infrastructure ruined, hunger imposed, deterioration in international relationships, lost output and so on, from the stupid war on Iran. Have a moment’s thought for the harm done to ocean shipping:
“Hapag-Lloyd AG, one of the world’s largest container shipping companies, says the Hormuz situation is costing it $60 million a week, particularly in skyrocketing prices of fuel and insurance. It has a fleet of 301 ships, including four stranded in the Persian Gulf.”
https://www.bostonherald.com/2026/05/06/iran-war-shipping/
So, $60 million divided by 301 ships comes to about $200,000 per ship, per week. As of 2022, UNCTAD put the number of ocean-freight-carrying ships of all types at about 25,700. So if every ship is facing $200,000 per week in additional cost, that adds $5 billion per week in additional shipping expenses.
Hapag-Lloyd, a big company, operates big ships; the average loss per ship is lower than Hapag-Lloyd’s loss. Let’s cut it in half and say that the world is facing an additional $2.5 billion per week in shipping costs. This extra burden won’t last forever. What does it add up to over a single quarter, thirteen weeks? That’s $32.5 billion.
If we add up the gross revenues for the top 10 ocean carriers in a recent quarter, we get $225 billion:
https://container-news.com/top-10-ocean-carriers-by-revenue-in-2024/
Oil tanker gross revenue for all of 2025 is estimated at $15.8 billion, about $4.1 billion per quarter :
https://dataintelo.com/report/crude-oil-tankers-market
(I’m surprised at the disparity between freight and oil – shows what I know.)
There is more to commercial ocean transport than is reflected in just these figures, but in any case, comparing the wild-ass-guestimated loss number to operating revenues for a fair chunk of the ocean shipping business suggests a hefty dent in the ocean transport revenue from the closure of Hormuz. That money has to come from somewhere, and press reports indicate a sharp rise in shipping rates. If Iran makes its toll for shipments through Hormuz stick, that will add further to shipping costs. The tolls are likely to applied specifically to products shipped through Hormuz (oil, fertilizer, aluminum, gas), but the losses from stranded boats will be spread more evenly across the ocean freight business.
This looks like something we’re going to be hearing about for some time to come. It’s inflationary. It may also screw up capital spending in the shipping industry for a while. All for a war we didn’t have to fight and were never going to “win”, whatever that means.
By the way, there are other ships on the ocean, a total of over 100,000, again according to UNCTAD. They mostly face higher costs, too.
Maybe it’s time to install some windmills on big ships so they can get a lift and a brake on fuel cost. I would actually pay extra to have ships passing Mar-A-Logo have windmills.
“Project Freedom” to have the US military escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz lasted just one day. It turns out the clowns in the White House failed to consult with their Arab allies. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had an angry phone call with Trump and threatened to forbid use of the airbase in Riyadh or Saudi airspace to support the operation. The Saudis didn’t like the idea of being in the line of fire for another Trump blustering performance for the rubes in the US.
So Trump called it off using the excuse that there was a sudden new peace proposal on the table. These MAGA bozos couldn’t organize a one-car parade. You can’t believe a single thing they say from day to day. It’s hard to tell who is really running this war — Netanyahu, MBS or Putin. It certainly isn’t Trump.
Coincidentally there was a mysterious $920 million short bet on oil 70 minutes before this new peace announcement. Somebody on the inside is getting rich on this war.