Given nominal wage growth in the private sector for production and nonsuperivisory workers, and nowcasted CPI, real wages are lower than in February.

Figure 1: Real average hourly earnings for private production and nonsupervisory worker, using CPI (blue), CPI for wage earners and clerical workers (red), in 2025$. June observation uses Cleveland Fed nowcast of 7/2/2026. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, NBER and author’s calculations.