From Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone, continuously updated risk assessment, at https://recessionrisk.com/ (discussed previously in this post).
The dashboard refreshes automatically on the first business day of each month when the ISM PMI is released, so it provides a real-time pulse on recession risk.
Source: recessionrisk.com accessed 7/6/2026.
Note this is the risk of a recession now (well, June), not into the next 12 months etc.
One leading, one coincident business-cycle indicator:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1X1Mk
Both look good.
However, here’s a somewhat worrying indicator with a too-brief history:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1X1Mv
The weekly payroll index, adjusted for inflation, is nearly flat vs year ago.
This much longer series, payroll employment, y/y % change, is forecasting recession pretty hard:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1X1My
So confusing – nicer to have everything pointing in the same direction. Maybe we don’t need the paycheck part of the economy anymore.
Looks like Democrats just lost the Senate majority:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/maine-woman-alleges-senate-candidate-221726944.html
Could be dirty tricks, but seriously, rape allegations are rarely discovered to be false. The data are not as good as in other categories of crime, but only between 2% and 12% of rape allegations are found to be false, and false allegations are strongly skewed toward black men:
https://worldmetrics.org/false-rape-allegations-statistics/