From Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone, continuously updated risk assessment, at https://recessionrisk.com/ (discussed previously in this post).

The dashboard refreshes automatically on the first business day of each month when the ISM PMI is released, so it provides a real-time pulse on recession risk.

Source: recessionrisk.com accessed 7/6/2026.

Note this is the risk of a recession now (well, June), not into the next 12 months etc.