From Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone, continuously updated risk assessment, at https://recessionrisk.com/ (discussed previously in this post).
The dashboard refreshes automatically on the first business day of each month when the ISM PMI is released, so it provides a real-time pulse on recession risk.
Source: recessionrisk.com accessed 7/6/2026.
Note this is the risk of a recession now (well, June), not into the next 12 months etc.
One leading, one coincident business-cycle indicator:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1X1Mk
Both look good.
However, here’s a somewhat worrying indicator with a too-brief history:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1X1Mv
The weekly payroll index, adjusted for inflation, is nearly flat vs year ago.
This much longer series, payroll employment, y/y % change, is forecasting recession pretty hard:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1X1My
So confusing – nicer to have everything pointing in the same direction. Maybe we don’t need the paycheck part of the economy anymore.
A couple of points …
In red the yield curve, the 10Y-3m spread has been normalized for the past 10 months. In the past, twice that has been the case about halfway through a recession, and twice after the recession was already over:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1X1UD&height=490
The 10Y-2Y spreads has been normalized for the past 22 months. In all cases but the Great Recession, the recession had already ended. In the case of the Great Recession, there were only 2 more months of recession remaining:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1X1YE&height=490
Secondly, aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls have a much longer record:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1X1Ux&height=490
In past cases, the YoY comparison has declined sharply to below 0 going into recessions. But currently the comparison has been below 1% but above 0.5% for many months. There is no direct historical comparison, but this reads to me more like a very weak expansion rather than a slide into recession (leaving aside further geopolitical shocks).
Also, the YoY% changes in in payroll employment bottomed last December, and has rebounded somewhat since.
Yep to all points. However, in most if not all cases, a slowing in real weekly payrolls to the current slow pace has led to recession. Seen as a coincident indicator, real weekly payrolls do not indicate recession. As a leading indicator, not so happy and the near-term trend is downward.
Looks like Democrats just lost the Senate majority:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/maine-woman-alleges-senate-candidate-221726944.html
Could be dirty tricks, but seriously, rape allegations are rarely discovered to be false. The data are not as good as in other categories of crime, but only between 2% and 12% of rape allegations are found to be false, and false allegations are strongly skewed toward black men:
https://worldmetrics.org/false-rape-allegations-statistics/
why is it so hard for democrats to find a quality candidate for office? somebody without significant baggage? in texas, I am coming to believe that talarico can win, as long as the republicans do not suppress the vote. he is a candidate that does not bring animosity and hatred to the campaign, even if you do not agree with him. goal number one is to gain control of congress and suppress the vindictiveness of trump. you cannot do that with divisive candidates.
on recession, the economy is still strong thanks to the great economic work of the Biden team last term. even with trump’s intention of destroying the American dream, it continues. at this point the economy seems to be operating normally, which means a recession will not happen until the fed hikes rates to address inflation. trump will not allow that type of recession to occur. so plan on higher inflation with lower interest rates going forward. unemployment will not be a problem as long as trump suppresses immigration. this will all catch up to the economy in due time, but probably after trump leaves office. once again, democrats will need to clean up the mess. one unknown is the AI bubble, and whether it will result in a financial crisis? there is alot of money tied up in that bubble, if it bursts.
Yeah. Recruiting candidates has been a problem.
That said, Maine looks like a special case (aren’t they all?), a super-purple case. A mealymouthed life-long Republican Senator who talks an independent line but never strays far from her party’s worst policies, an Independent Party Senator who caucuses with Democrats, two Democratic Reps and a Democratic governor, none of whom veer far from the middle. Here comes Maine’s version of Fetterman, with tats, tough-guy resume and testicles, which looks perfect for pulling purple votes. Sadly, toxic masculinity doesn’t go away just because one learns to say the right things. They can’t all be Swalwells, but there are plenty of Swalwells out there.
Tantrum time:
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-ordered-cutting-off-all-trade-with-spain-2026-07-08/?link_source=ta_bluesky_link&taid=6a4e09602c603800010009d4
Because there’s a law that let’s him cut off trade on a whim.
Two tantrums, actually:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/07/08/trump-reopens-iran-war-political-problem-he-cant-shake/
Brent is up 5% today.
These sundowning tantrums are such an embarrassment.
As I’m sure y’all know, book writin’ is, at least since Jack Kennedy and Ferdinand Marcos, a necessary step in running for president. JD has written a book. I’m not gonna read it, just like I didn’t read the other one.
Noah Smith apparently has read it – good for him – and has noticed a theme; JD doesn’t think much of general material prosperity. The masses should jolly well spend less time bothering about how well they’re doing and more time bothering about what JD thinks they should bother about. Smith can tell you why he thinks JD is full of baloney:
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/jd-vances-crusade-against-gdp-is
My objection to JD’s book – as characterized by Smith because I’m not gonna read it – is that he’s a two-faced hypocrite. Let me count the ways:
– JD is a millionaire, with net worth of around $12 million as of a year ago:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kylemullins/2025/07/24/heres-how-much-jd-vance-is-worth/#:~:text=It%20goes%20without%20saying%20that,even%20sworn%20into%20the%20Senate
He did not become a millionaire by building a company, creating jobs or making us spiritually better. He did it by fictionalizing his early life, by working in finance and by doing Peter Thiel’s bidding. Now, he wants the rest of us to do as he says, not as he has done.
– JD identified the felon-in-chief as a bad, bad choice for president before turning around and helping the felon-in-chief become president:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/07/opioid-of-the-masses/489911/?gift=SCYx-5scVta3-cr_IlgTyVxO2amgJDeQ6Yrmd4b7Kfs
The felon-in-chief has used the office to enrich himself and his cronies while dividing the country – not exactly the turn toward greater spirituality JD urges on the rest of us. JD still works for the felon-in-chief and does not speak out against the guy’s crass self-dealing, but wants the rest of us to turn away from materialism. JD works for a malignant narcissist while urging greater spiritualism on the rest of us, kinda like the Catholic church in the Dark Ages.
– Our nation was founded on the belief that we should be free to pursue happiness, but when we decide that material stuff makes us happy, JD tells us to cut it out. That’s despite enriching himself and rubbing elbows with a bunch of richies, like the felon-in-chief, Peter Thiel and Scott Bessent.
– Timing. Timing, timing, timing! JD’s party and his boss have worked hard to enrich the rich and keep the rest of us down, and the public is fed up with it. Now JD tells us that we’re focusing on the wrong things. He’s telling us to stop thinking about his team’s record just as he’s fixin’ to take over as quarterback.
– JD sounds like a shill for – you guessed it – Peter Thiel. Thiel promotes a very special version of theocratic plutocracy that has little room for personal faith, enlightenment ideals or general prosperity. JD peddles a “settle for less” opiate for the masses that fits nicely into Thiel’s plans. No mention of redistribution of income or wealth, just happy talk about settling for less, for those who happen to already have less.
In case you’re wondering, here’s the horserace for the next Republican presidential candidate, with JD well in the lead:
https://www.racetothewh.com/president/2028/gop
The good news, if you can call it that, is that nobody likes JD. He’s got the charisma of wet, braided toilet paper.