In 2025, about half of observed consumption, according to Bigot and Espic (BdF):
Source: Bigot and Espic (2026).
The estimates rely upon work by Beach, Gamber and Moran (2025) at the Federal Reserve Board, disaggregating by income groups.
Hence, in order to predict consumption, follow wealth — in particular equity wealth.
Figure 1: Consumption (bold black, left log scale), GDPNow estimate of 7/8 (light blue square), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR; household net worth in bn.Ch.2017$ (red, right log scale). Both series deflated by PCE deflator. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds, and author’s calculations.
The nowcast indicates 2% q/q AR growth in consumption in Q2; we don’t have net worth in Q2, but based on the rise in the SP500, I’d guess 2.1% growth in net worth. Q1 PCE deflator inflation was around 0.8% , suggesting a 1.3% increase in net worth (q/q not AR).
For now, consumption growth seems intact, albeit slowing.
Off topic – felons gotta felon:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy30p89rlgt
The felon-in-chief has announced that the U.S. will begin collecting protection money on cargo through the Strait of Hormuz (all cargo, as far as I can tell). His demand is 20%, maybe something he picked up from mobster movies? Iran was demanding a particular amount per tanker (only petroleum to be taxed, as far as I can tell), which at $60/bbl on a supermax would run to under 2%.
This is, of course, a violation of “freedom of the seas”, which has been a central tenet of the post-WWII “Pax American” system. The felon isn’t one of us. He’s the thing that the U.S. and the West has worked to banish from the world since 1945, at the very latest. We elected him, knowing what he was. That’s who we are.