SPGMI’s estimate as of 8/3:

Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold light green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), NY Fed nowcast of 8/21 (light blue box), all log normalized to 2025M01=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2026Q1 advance release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (8/3/2026 release), and author’s calculations. 

Nowcasts are 4.0% (Atlata Fed, 8/18), 2.3% (SPGMI, 8/21), St. Louis Fed (2.4%), GS tracking (2.3%).