July 15 is the due date, but is often missed. So looking back in May, NEC Chair Hassett forecast 5% growth in 2027, on top of rapid 2026 growth forecasted by the Administration. How are things looking with two more quarters of reported growth?
Figure 1: Reported GDP (bold black), Administration’s FY2027 Budget forecast, aka OMB-Treasury-CEA “Troika” (red squares), WSJ April survey mean (blue), SPF median forecast (pink), Hassett 5% growth in 2027 (teal triangle), . Source: BEA, WSJ April survey, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
So far, reported is tracking the WSJ April mean forecast.
If I had a nickel for every time I hear some falsely righteous American say “Our children are our most important resource” I’d have double Warren Buffett’s net worth by now:
https://www.stephensemler.com/p/trumps-food-assistance-cliff
Maybe when Hassett leaves the trump administration he can get a job doing GDP forecasts for China’s National People’s Congress?? If it’s at least 2% higher than the actual result they could name a chain of bathhouses in his honor. The true “happy ending” such places in China are known for.