CBO releases CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2007 Update [pdf].
See in particular pages 11-12, for a comparison against the administration and Blue Chip forecasts, in terms of mean error, mean absolute error, and RMSE.
CBO releases CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2007 Update [pdf].
See in particular pages 11-12, for a comparison against the administration and Blue Chip forecasts, in terms of mean error, mean absolute error, and RMSE.
Figure 2 is pretty interesting. You can totally see the influence of HMOs in the 1990s.
Menzie,
Is there any analysis of their initial unadjusted forecasts compared to their adjusted forecasts.
I have a friend who has developed a metric to predict the CPE 6 months in advance using gold and his results have been much better than the CBO and that is unadjusted numbers 6 months in advance.
Looking at the numbers reported it appears that their accruacy is worse than 10%. Do they report their error rate as a percentage? Did I just overlook it?