Monthly Archives: April 2009

Hi Frequency Output Indicators

The advance release for 2009Q1 GDP will come out on April 29. Until then, we have some readings from the monthly GDP nowcasts, two of which were released on April 15. e-Forecasting identifies an annualized 9.6% decline in first quarter GDP. Macroeconomic Advisers (whose monthly estimates only extend to February) writes “Our latest tracking estimate of a 5.1% decline in GDP in the first quarter includes a 1.2% decline in monthly GDP in March, reflecting a partial reversal in net exports and weakness in PCE and inventory investment.” A lot hinges, then, on what happens to net exports.

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The Allocation of Stimulus Funds

From Daniel Wilson, “Are Fiscal Stimulus Funds
Going to the ‘Right’ States?”
at the SF Fed (h/t Torsten Slok at DB):

…While
it is too early to tell whether the overall stimulus
package will have its intended effects, this review
suggests that, by and large, the distribution of federal
stimulus funds is indeed tilted toward those states most
likely to spend the funds quickly and effectively.

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Macroeconomic Schisms

There has been a lot of breast-beating in the press and in the blogosphere about how economists failed to discern the possibility that not all was going well in the years leading up the current financial and economic crisis [1]. I think the notion that all economists were blithely optimistic has been dispelled (well, okay, here’s a couple of exceptions: Dan Gross h/t Free Exchange, A. Kaletsky). At the risk of some gross simplifications, I will speculate that there was —
until recently — less optimism among academic macroeconomists than Wall Street economists. There was probably less anxiety among
say finance professors who focused on asset pricing (as opposed those who worked in banking) than macroeconomists (Dani Rodrik highlights the diversity). One divide that
I think is not particularly relevant in locating the source of the crisis is the most well known one — specifically whether prices
are sticky.

In my opinion, the big divide in thinking relates to how economists conceive of financial markets working. This is a divide that cuts across other divides. For instance, the Hicksian
decomposition (IS-LM), in its simplest incarnation, treats the financial world as one wherein bonds are identical, and the only means of borrowing; there is no separate channel for lending, say via bank loans, to influence aggregate demand (see this post for the many channels of monetary policy). In the real business cycle literature, and many New Keynesian DSGE models, there is a representative bond (and lending rate) which summarizes the asset markets (see Camilo Tovar’s survey of DSGEs for a discussion).

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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

Last weekend I attended an excellent conference on business cycles hosted by UC Riverside (program details here). Among the many interesting presentations was an update from University of Maryland Professor Boragan Aruoba on the index of current business conditions that he developed with Professor Frank Diebold of the University of Pennsylvania and Federal Reserve economist Chiara Scotti.

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