Congratulations to (1) the University of Connecticut, 2011 NCAA men’s basketball champion, and (2) A. Chaves, who, in part because he or she successfully predicted (1), is winner of this year’s world-famous Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge.
And condolences to most of the rest of us, who messed up pretty badly with our predictions. Not that I wouldn’t have made pretty much the same calls if the same teams were to play again.
Is that last sentence consistent with the likelihood principle?
Not very Baysian (although “pretty much” leaves some wiggle room.)