(Updated 10/6)
Four business days into the shutdown, and we have already exceeded in length 90% of the government-wide shutdowns that have occurred. What is the macro impact? In an accounting sense, by end-of-Monday, the impact should be to shave off 0.2 ppts of 2013Q4 q/q annualized growth.
Exhibit 1 from Alec Phillips, “Updated Thoughts on the Federal Shutdown and Its Implications,” Goldman Sachs (10/2) [not online].
On the one hand, these estimates presuppose that when the closure ends, Federal pay expenditure on services is not disbursed retroactively.
On the other hand, no second round effects on consumption are incorporated — that is no multiplier for government consumption are assumed. And as we know, when we are in a liquidity trap, multipliers tend to be large. [1]
(Update 10/6) With the House legislation to retroactively repay furloughed workers, on top of DoD’s decision to bring back to work most civilian workers, the impact (in accounting terms) on nominal GDP is going to be minimized, although the impact on real GDP will remain. As GS notes, since furloughed workers will be paid for work not done (ironies, ironies), then the government spending deflator will be increased.
The GS note also mentions the impact of heightened policy uncertainty on growth. I myself am skeptical of the impact — I think deficient aggregate demand is much more important — but for those who think it is important, here is a picture of the current situation.
Updated Figure 1: Baker, Bloom and Davis Policy Uncertainty Index, monthly average of daily observations (blue), and observation for 10/6 (red square), and average of observations 10/1-10/6 (green triangle). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: Baker, Bloom, and Davis, accessed 10/6/2013, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Update, 10/5, 10:30AM: It is important to recall why we have this continuing government shutdown. As noted in the Washington Examiner:
“We’re not going to be disrespected,” conservative Rep. Marlin Stutzman, R-Ind., added. “We have to get something out of this. And I don’t know what that even is.”
For Patrick R. Sullivan who does not seem to be familiar with the national income accounts of the United States, nor the NBER definitions of recessions and expansions, here is a graph of GDP data over the period around WW II.
Figure 2: Growth rate of real GDP (Ch.05$), calculated as log first differences. Source: Measuring Worth and author’s calculations.
What we have is Keynesians using Keynesian analysis to prove their Keynesian forecasts (recall the Keynesian predictions after WWII). So what happened in 1995? Wouldn’t actual experience tell the real story? Hmmmm! Did the 1995 shutdown actually destroy the economy?
In truth this governemnt shutdown could be the best economic stimulus President Obama has created. Then after it purges the economy of malinvestment of government excess (a blessing even if only a 15% government cut) and recovery booms as unemployment falls, the Keynesians will claim credit.
It is amazing that the Republicans only control a portion of 1/3 of the government and they are masterfully manuevering their way around the Democrat’s obstruction. The market is amazing in its resilience. Sequestration, now governemnt shutdown, and soon a positive result to the debt limit, I am more encourage about the economy than I have been in years.
Check out these results.
The obvious conclusion is that Government is way too big.
When the Government is so bloated that it quasi-defacto becomes the economy then what should be the tail is now wagging the dog!
Tip O’Neill presided over 12 shutdowns and we survived. Enjoy the spectacle.
Plus a useful reminder that DC is as often the problem as the solution. Like an engine, it runs best on lean.
When government fails, so does the full faith and credit of snivel liberals. Good for the future of the republic.
Tip O’Neill presided over 12 shutdowns and we survived. Enjoy the spectacle.
Plus a useful reminder that DC is as often the problem as the solution. Like an engine, it runs best on lean.
When government fails, so does the full faith and credit of snivel liberals. Good for the future of the republic.
‘(recall the Keynesian predictions after WWII)’
For those too young to remember, in September 1945 there was a massive cutback in federal govt. spending thanks to WWII defense levels being no longer needed. Millions of men were released from govt. employment into the private sector. Paul Samuelson predicted a Return of Depression Economics.
What actually happened was that the economy boomed.
Jeremy
Good point. When a 4 day partial shutdown shows up in GDP, it’s time to downsize.
The House on Saturday unanimously passed a bill 407-0 to retroactively pay furloughed federal employees after the government shutdown ends.
Patrick R. Sullivan: I know you do not believe in looking at actual data, but it might interest you to know that in fact in 1946, y/y growth went negative; I have added Figure 2 to the post for your benefit, since you do not seem to be able to consult actual data. In addition, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) lists recession dates as February 1945 to November 1945 (i.e., peak to trough).
People who blithely ignore data and make bold assertions without any sort of backing continue to amaze me. I thought bloodletting for curing all ailments, and belief in the humours went out with the middle ages. I was apparently wrong in this regard.
You can also measure a hit to consumer confidence…
Menzie says, ” I thought bloodletting for curing all ailments, and belief in the humours went out with the middle ages. I was apparently wrong in this regard”
No these did go out with the middle ages. But now we have mass hysteria over Carbon Dioxide, a harmless trace gas that is food for plants!
Plus ca change plus c’est la meme chose.
Anyway I agree with your comment that growth is sensitive to cutbacks in government spend – so Patrick is indeed wrong and Keynes was right.
However, I am concerned that too much Keynesian intervention ALSO has serious repercussions and can lead to the very boom and bust cycles that it purports to mitigate.
Like an engine, it runs best on lean.
The words of a shade tree mechanic who knows as much about combustion engines as he does economics.
Word to the wise. There’s a reason why cars have an O2 sensor. Running an engine lean will overheat the combustion chamber leading to pre-ignition knocking. Eventually it will burn a hole in the piston.
“People who blithely ignore data and make bold assertions without any sort of backing continue to amaze me. I thought bloodletting for curing all ailments, and belief in the humours went out with the middle ages. I was apparently wrong in this regard.”
– This now seems to be the norm Mr. Chinn. Despite the trolling by others you’re doing a fantastic job. Thank you for keeping up with this event.
“This is a domestic Cuban Missile Crisis.”
http://nymag.com/news/politics/nationalinterest/government-shutdown-2013-10/
Excerpt:
Slightly off topic, sorry Menzie–please forgive, but one of the interesting highlights of the shutdown, to me, is the lack of public data. For example, the jobs report. Of course, this works to advantage of the 1% who can afford to purchase private data reports, but the rest of us are in the dark. Hmm, kinda makes you wonder if this is part of the 1% agenda? An uninformed electorate is that much easier to manipulate.
Menzie,
I now feel your pain and understand your concern. I absolutely underestimated the lengths this administration was willing to go in an attempt to win a political point. But don’t lose hope concerning your park services. My sense is this war against the American people will backfire.
A partial list of administration shutdowns that is growing every day. Note that there is a bill to fund every one of these that the federal government has a right to close but the administration as noted the administration has closed or attempted to close facilities it has not jurisdiction over. States have agreed to fund many of these for the benefit of the people. Also note that for the first time in history the government is refusing the people the right to volunteer. Guess who is saying “NO!”
1. Treatments for Children Suffering From Cancer –
2. The World War II Memorial – The WWII memorial on the DC Mall is a 24/7 open-air memorial that is not regularly staffed.
3. Furloughed Military Chaplains Not Allowed to Work for Free –
4. Business Stops In Florida Keys – The government has actually brought in rangers to block assess to the ocean.
5. Obama Blacks Out Sports, Entertainment Programming to Overseas Troops –
6. Obama Closes D-Day Memorial –
7. Obama Tries to Close Privately-Funded Mt. Vernon –
8. Obama Closes Over 100 Privately-Managed Parks That Cost No Money to Run –
9. Obama Closes Self-Sustaining Colonial Farm It Hasn’t Supported Since 1980 –
10. Obama Tries to Close State-Run Parks in Wisconsin – I have learned that Wisonsin is not the only state where the federal government is attempting to block access.
11. Obama Closes Vietnam Memorial –
12. Obama Closes Privately-Owned Hotel, Police Block Parking Lot –
13. Park Service Ranger: ‘We’ve Been Told to Make Life As Difficult For People As We Can’ – “It’s a cheap way to deal with the situation,” an angry Park Service ranger in Washington says of the harassment. “We’ve been told to make life as difficult for people as we can. It’s disgusting.”
14. Obama Forces Residents Out of Private Homes – “The government shutdown is being felt close to home for some locals. They say they’re being forced out of private homes on Lake Mead because they sit on federal land.”
15. Acadia Park In Maine Shut Down –
16. Historic Restaurant Open During Last Shutdown Forced to Close – “An iconic Philadelphia restaurant has been forced to close its doors and turn away booked parties because of the government shutdown.”
17. Obama Shuts Down a Road Tha Goes Through CO Park: “The Forest Service announcement, in turn, led the Pitkin County commissioners to order that Maroon Creek Road be shut down at the height of the colorful leaf-changing season. Ahead of what is to be one of the busiest weekends of the fall, the road is to be closed to vehicles at T-Lazy-7 Ranch, pending a resolution to the government shutdown.”
18. Residents Plan Protest of Cape Hatteras Closing – “Businesses and residents on the Outer Banks have planned a peaceful protest of the closure of Hatteras Island’s beaches due to the government shut down.”
19. Obama Blocks People From LOOKING at Mt. Rushmore – “The National Park Service placed cones along highway viewing areas outside Mount Rushmore this week, barring visitors from pulling over and taking pictures of the famed monument.
20. Crucial USDA Websites Taken Down – “The U.S. Department of Agriculture has turned off its entire website in response to the government shutdown, leaving farmers, reporters and others with no way to access any of the agency’s information online. …
“USDA’s total website shutdown goes far beyond the response of other federal agencies, and seems to be part of an effort to make people feel the effects of the shutdown. Thursday morning calls to USDA’s press office seeking an explanation were not answered.”
This website is down and yet the ObamaCare and White House websites are up.
21. St. Louis Gateway Arch Closed –
22. Park Shutdown Bounces Rowers from Potomac –
23. Thompson Boat Center Closed In DC –
24. Obama Closes Military Commissary –
25. Arizona Offers to Fund Grand Canyon,
Ricardo,
Indeed. I thought blocking the view of Mt. Rushmore gets the “most ridiculous” award. They closed the park down but realized that people might still be able to pull over to see it. Here’s a twitter picture of the cones they put up to prevent people from pulling over.
Winning in the “most cruel” category is kicking old people out of the homes they have rented or owned for many years at Lake Mead, NV. This article tells the outrageous story. It’s not surprising really given that their senator is willing to deny medicine to children with cancer in order to make the shutdown as painful as possible.
Don’t know if you’ve seen this, but on the lighter side here’s an episode of Cops: Park Police Shutdown Edition.
Ricardo Ugh. Where to begin.
the first time in history the government is refusing the people the right to volunteer.
This is simply wrong in so many ways. First, not just any Joe off the street can “volunteer.” A lot of these jobs require training and security background checks. Second, the reason military chaplains (or any other government workers) are not allowed to work free is because there is this law called the Anti-Deficiency Act that (among other provisions) prohibits government workers from doing so. And there are very good reasons for this. Third, offers from state and private individuals to fund many of these operations could be allowed under certain circumstances if those government workers were paid under non-appropriated funds (NAF) rules. And many of the government workers who have not been effected by the shutdown fall under the NAF category. But there are several problems with these offers. The most obvious problem is that the workers at these parks are not NAF employees and you cannot move people willy-nilly between appropriated and NAF categories. Also, the direct salaries only constitute some of the employment costs. What about healthcare, retirement and TSP contributions, processing payroll transactions, etc. Oh…there’s also this constitutional issue that prohibits employees working for the federal government also taking pay from state and local government. So at a minimum those state, local and private contributions would have to be laundered through the Treasury. Oh wait…Treasury is shut down.
Your item about Obama closing military commissaries is a real howler. Most commissaries are under NAF rules and are not directly effected. The commissary at the Army base where I work was in fact open all day on Tuesday. The commissary closed some of its outlets after Tuesday because there weren’t enough non-furloughed people on the base to justify keeping all of the commissary outlets open. The closing of some of these commissary outlets is a business decision and not something directed by Obama.
You sound just like the typical Tea Party whiner who complains about government but doesn’t have a clue how government actually works.
Menzie,
I assume it is clear to you, as it is to anyone paying the slightest attention, that Ricardo’s assignment from his political masters is to jump into the comments as early as he can, in an effort to dilute the effect of your efforts. He will write ant lie, though he has a clear preference for parroting the big-boy liars with radio shows and bi-lines, any lie as long as it has a chance of derailing reasonable discussion. Obviously, your efforts have drawn the attention of Ricardo’s masters. The fact that other denizens of the rightwing hive-mindare also showing up is just more evidence that you are seen as dangerous to the goals of Ricardo’s masters.
I understand that you may be reluctant to take action, but consider – do you want your blog to serves a petrie dish for the sort of anti-intellectual germs that Ricardo spreads?
Kharris and 2Slugbaits,
You may hate Ricardo but debate is healthy and I hope your ad hominem attacks are not successful in getting the moderators to block his comments down.
I think some of these actions suggest a sense of entitlement and bitterness not on the part of Obama and Democrats but of some bureaucrats in general. These bureaucrats have the attitude that they want to make life as miserable as they possibly can for ordinary Americans to prove a point. Sadly the only thing they prove is how unworthy they are of their taxpayer funded cosy jobs.
Ricardo,
If you are going to accuse Obama of doing all these things then please show us the evidence as most people would not expect Obama to get anywhere close to this level of detail with regard to mundane operations of parking lots etc. Myself, until demonstrated otherwise, I can only believe your list is more likely a reflection of nasty selfish bureaucrats with entitlement mindsets than a grand plan to upset ordinary Americans.
kharris: I think there is observational equivalence between sheer ignorance and stupidity, and complete craven mendacity in the service of the hard right agenda. There is no way for me to distinguish between the two (the former is something that should be allowed), and so Jim and I have resolved to not screen the posts (except for profanity and racist comments, which has come up on occasion). My only hope is that nobody pays heed to somebody who is still convinced that Saddam Hussein was in possession of WMDs at the time of the invasion of Iraq. (Besides which, can we really take anyone seriously someone who uses all bold for practically his entire entry?)
Jeremy: I don’t think anybody hates Ricardo aka RicardoZ aka Dick aka DickF. Rather, we should feel sorry for someone who holds the views he does (assuming he believes them; as speculated, he might just be paid to say these things, and then I, again, pity him).
Speaking of ad hominem attacks, when you write about “These bureaucrats”, I wonder if you have worked with these folks. I will say in the one year I worked in the EOP, and interacted with civil servants from Treasury to Commerce to Agriculture, I was always very impressed with their knowledge and dedication, even if I did not always agree. It would seem to me you are working off a set of talking points.
2slugbaits,
Your point about commissaries not closing because the workers are NAF illustrates exactly the point I’ve been making about the shutdown. The administration justifies closing private parks even if they are completely self-funded, but apparently the principle does apply not to commissaries and other cases. Despite all the legalistic justifications concerning the antideficiency act, etc. there is no real legal principle being applied. They are trying to find ways to make this shutdown as vexing as possible to people and are picking and choosing the situations to inflict maximum pain. But they know that there are certain high profile situations they can’t apply the policy to without it backfiring on them.
So commissaries open. Military football games on. Marine corps marathon is a go. But old people kicked out of their houses. And scenic views blocked off in front of Mt. Rushmore. Privately funded campsites and privately funded historical farms closed. Police cruisers turning away customers of a privately funded inn and restaurant. The WWII monument open, but only to honor guard members who are exercising their “first amendment” freedoms. No one else can get in.
It’s unbelievable.
2slugs
Las Vegas, NV (KTNV) — The government shutdown is being felt close to home for some locals. They say they’re being forced out of private homes on Lake Mead because they sit on federal land.
Joyce Spencer is 77-years-old and her husband Ralph is 80. They’ve been spending most of their time in the family ice cream store since going home isn’t an option.
The Spencers never expected to be forced out of their Lake Mead home, which they’ve owned since the 70s, but on Thursday, a park ranger said they had 24 hours to get out.
http://www.ktnv.com/news/local/Lake-Mead-Property-Owners-Forced-Out-Until-Gov-Shutdown-Ends-226557661.html?lc=Smart
According to your impeccable logic, and irrefutable facts, this elderly couple should have been kicked out of their home several times since the 1970’s because there have been several shutdowns since they moved into their house on federal land in the 70’s.
Obama: ‘I Have Bent Over Backwards To Work With The Republican Party’
http://washington.cbslocal.com/2013/10/03/obama-i-have-bent-over-backwards-to-work-with-the-republican-party/
Gosh, now there’s somebody we can all feel sorry for. Poor President Obama all bent over backwardsy putting in those long hours working with Republicans.
To paraphrase one of Menzie’s lines, there’s a name for people who make grandiose claims that are not supported by reality.
Rick Stryker Well, the Anti-Deficiency Act is kind of a big deal. And what you interpret as deliberate inconveniences, others might interpret as responsible actions to prevent accidents. If you opened up those parks without rangers, then how long would it be before people went beyond merely looking at Mt Rushmore from a distance? How long before people decide to get up close to the bears in Yellowstone? How long before some idiot decides to climb down the Grand Canyon? How long before con artists and criminals move in and take advantage? How long before someone gets injured? The essence of the Anti-Deficiency Act is that if the government even allows a situation to occur that could in anyway invite an expectation of help or sense of tacit commitment from the government, then allowing that to happen is a violation of law. Opening a park invites certain expectations from visitors, and that invitation alone is a violation of law even if the invitation was tacit and unintended. That’s the law. It’s something that is pounded into the head of every government worker.
What’s “unbelievable” is the chutzpah of politicians using kids with cancer as a poster child for Tea Party policies even though earlier this summer those very same politicians voted to reduce those same NIH programs. The NIH had its budget cut from $31B in FY2012 to $29B in FY2013 and $27B for FY2014. Cancer treatment for those same kids was cut by the GOP. What’s “unbelievable” is how Speaker Boehner admitted this morning that he reneged on a previous budget agreement of $988B in discretionary spending without any mention of killing Obamacare, but somehow Obama is being mean and unreasonable because Obama doesn’t want to cave into new Tea Party demands after the fact. Now Boehner wants a “conversation.” Sounds more like moving the goal posts. What’s “unbelievable” is passing a resolution to return many government workers to their jobs under a piecemeal CR, but “forgetting” to tell the press that those workers, while able to return to work, will not be paid until a complete CR is approved. So Boehner doesn’t see any problem with ordering people back to work (BTW, it’s a felony not to show up under the piecemeal CR), but those workers may not get paid until next year. What’s “unbelievable” are all these crocodile tears for old geezers in wheelchairs at the WWII memorial, but complete indifference for kids on field trips wanting to go to the Smithsonian. I strongly suspect the reason is that the old geezers in wheelchairs are the kinds of “real Americans” that the Tea Party types can identify with. Those inner-city kids going to museums…not so much. What’s “unbelievable” is that a grown-up would believe a “privately funded inn and restaurant” on public grounds should be exempt. Ever been to Yellowstone? There are lots of “privately funded” inns and restaurants within the park grounds, but you have to traverse public park lands to get there. The government cannot make exceptions for inns and restaurants at one park but not for other parks. What’s “unbelievable” is that a major political party would treat government services as a kind of ala carte menu, where one party picks and chooses what parts of government they will fund or threaten to blow up the economy. What’s “unbelievable” is that the party of Lincoln has morphed into a neo-Confederate party.
Jeremy I don’t think anyone hates Ricardo. He’s deeply uninformed about a lot of issues and it’s hard not to laugh at the irony of someone who whines about worthless bureaucrats, while he himself doesn’t work and lives off the benefits of the welfare state. It’s his fake libertarianism that’s annoying…but it’s also a little sad. A lot of his comments sound like a frat boy who never quite grew up. How else do you explain his flippant (I’m assuming they’re flippant) comments about shutting down the IRS being a good thing? He complains about overpaid public sector workers, but forgets that when he’s having a heart attack, gasping for breath and choking on his own vomit, it will most likely be a public sector worker who saves his sorry ass.
FYI: Under the terms of most residential permits on public land, the homes are NOT primary residences and a primary residence must be maintained.
http://www.fs.fed.us/specialuses/documents/Recreation_Residence_FSH_Direction.pdf
Samuel: Private data reports invariably rely on public data, usually repackaged or reformatted. ADP employment compiled by Moody’s is one exception but I’m not sure how well it tracks BLS series. Private data vendors will have historical public data but no new public data will be forthcoming during shutdown.
Besides September employment August foreign trade due October 8 will be missed. Many others to follow. Advance Q3 GDP in late October most likely will be delayed.
2slugs
The government cannot make exceptions for inns and restaurants at one park but not for other parks.
Then why weren’t people forced from their homes and businesses during past shutdowns?
Obama delayed the employer mandate. All he has to do is delay the individual mandate and the CR will pass.
Of course, he will have to speak with Republicans to reach an agreement, which he is refusing to do. Another example of Obama taking the path that inflicts as much pain as possible on the American people.
HHS/IRS has admitted they are not prepared to effectively enforce the individual mandate. Why won’t Obama take the reasonable path and delay it?
A prayer for the Ricardo’s of our world. The ones that use pseudo-data to justify their twisted version of the facts. The ones that benefited from the internet era in which only a keyboard is required to give an opinion on something real with real consequences. Fremdschämen
Because I am a fair-minded individual, unlike some of you who feel sorry for Ricardo, here is a Bloomberg article that explains the apparent random effects of the shutdown on various agencies and services. Enjoy…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-03/troops-forage-for-food-while-golfers-play-on-in-shutdown.html
As Menzie likes to say, “there’s a name for people like tj.”
Rick Stryker,
Thanks for the video. I am still laughing.
Jeremy,
The list did mention that all of these were done by President Obama. I do not believe that he personally approved everyone of these shutdowns, but he has people in place in his administration who know what he wants so he does not need to. Notice in my comments I referred to the administration. The list was copied from another source and I edited out much of the documentation of the claims so that the post did not take up as much space.
I do not like it when Progressives say that because liberals do not affirmatively agree with them that they are negative so I try not to make the same claim of Progressives, but in this case I believe it is appropriate. If President Obama opposes the closing of the memorials in Washington DC all he has to do is say stop it. He has said nothing to disavow the claim of the Park Service employee who stated, “We’ve been told to make life as difficult for people as we can. It’s disgusting.”
My friends who volunteer in National Park clean up have also sent me pdf copies of the letters they have been receiving but I do not want to burden what is supposed to be an economics site with that.
I think it tells us a lot when Progressives like Slug justify preventing volunteers from picking up trash with comments like, “…not just any Joe off the street can ‘volunteer.’ A lot of these jobs require training and security background checks.” Security background checks to pick up paper and move brush off of trails in the national park? Give me a break! The Progressives are really getting nutty and the public doesn’t even need to make fun of their foolishness. All that is needed is to repeat their actual words.
Rick Stryker,
again i ask you, if you are sooooo concerned about the parks staying open, I can propose an easy solution.
Put to vote a clean CR and debt limit bill. I guarantee it will pass, and in a bipartisan fashion. if you disagree, then you are not out to solve the problem of closed parks. juat to complain about Obama and the government. quit complaining! same goes to you , ricardo!
It seems to me that there is a non-zero, and perhaps increasing, chance that we are going to see some kind of technical default a few days hence. I’m curious as to what the rest of the peanut gallery thinks.
tj
why should obama delay the implementation of a law which was passed by both houses of congress and signed by the president. it is the law of the land. to reinforce that idea, the president was re-elected by a population who chose him over the candidate who ran on the agenda of repealing obamacare. what do you not understand about this scenario?
a clean CR and debt limit bill WILL PASS the house and senate, and signed by the president. why in the world would he not choose that path? because boehner will not allow a clean bill into the House. there is a path of bipartisan support to eliminate this fiasco. any bill tied to obamacare will not become law, so you need to quit barking up that tree. but a clean bill will become law if one is allowed to vote for it.
how stupid does one have to be to not understand the reality of this situation? people need to quit confusing their desires with reality!
Linked on Drudge:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/get-your-fiscal-house-in-order-china-warns-us-as-superpower-expresses-concern-for-13tn-of-investments-8864935.html
China, the biggest foreign creditor of the United States, has waded into the American budget crisis, warning Congress that it must resolve the political impasse over the debt ceiling without further delay.
The Chinese Vice Foreign Minister, Zhu Guangyao, told America’s deadlocked politicians on Monday that “the clock is ticking” and called on them to approve an extension of the national borrowing limit before the federal government is projected to run out of cash on 17 October.
“We ask that the United States earnestly takes steps to resolve in a timely way the political issues around the debt ceiling and prevent a US debt default to ensure the safety of Chinese investments in the United States,” Mr Zhu told reporters in Beijing. “This is the United States’ responsibility,” he added.
baffled by tj
why should obama delay the implementation of a law which was passed by both houses of congress and signed by the president. it is the law of the land.
The baffling part is why Obama insists on cramming the individual mandate down the throats of Americans now. Obama and his mouthpiece Reid, know that the individual mandate cannot be effectively enforced by the IRS/HHS. The exchanges are not ready. Obama has made several changes to the law, so it’s not like the House is setting some precedent by asking for a delay in the individual mandate.
Why not let people voluntarily enroll this year and introduce the mandate next year? Roll it out gradually.
Looks like we are both baffled.
tj,
answer this honestly. do you want a delay so that obamacare can be implemented in a smooth fashion? or do you want a delay so you have more time to try and repeal obamacare before it gets implemented?
you want a delay so you have more time to repeal obamacare. why should obama allow that? again, it is the law of the land. one should expect some difficulty rolling out such a large program, but that is par for the course.
out of curiosity, do you have healthcare? if so, nothing is being crammed down your throat. you have been sold a bill of goods from the conservative talk show hosts, who laugh all the way to the bank with the cash you gave them to read the drivel in their books. you get fleeced every day and say “may i have another!”
again, it all goes back to obama following the law of the land, and you believe in anarchy. you choose not to follow the law of the land. baffling!
Here is how accurate Keynesian predictions are:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/10/IMF%20World%20Growth%20Oct%202013_1.jpg
baffled by tj,
You keep talking about how Obamacare is the law of the land, but you don’t apparently realize that the Administration has already illegally delayed implementation for businesses. You also do not seem to realize that the Administration has already illegally subsidized Obamacare for congressional staff. If they can do that, then why can’t they also delay it for individuals?
Anyway, I’m starting to think that asking the administration to delay Obamacare is a moot point. The Administration’s own incompetence is delaying Obamacare, much as its incompetent policies have delayed the recovery. Despite having 3 years notice, the Administration could not put up a website that works. Both the the Wall Street Journal and Reuters have discussed the many serious design flaws in the Obamacare website. The web is full of stories about people’s failed attempts to create an account. Here is an amusing video showing a reporter’s all day attempt to create an account on the Obamacare website. She also tried to call the help line but no one came on the line, although she did get the automated survey at the end the call asking her to rate her experience.
It’s frightening that these Administration dodos want the American people to put them in charge of health care. It’s even more shocking that with the US unemployment rate driven up by their policies, the Administration hired a Canadian software firm to build the website.
Of course, Obamacare’s defenders will say that we just need to wait until the website is fixed, then we’ll see what a success the program is. Well, let’s see if we can get an early indication. Maryland, run by Democrats, put up its own site. Wow, it looks pretty good. There were 170,000 visitors to the site. 13,500 people created accounts and over 10,000 people called the call center. So, how many people actually signed up so far? Wait for it…..wait for it….326!.
Looks like we don’t need to ask for a delay. We can just rely on the continuing incompetence of the Administration to delay it, probably for a lot longer than 1 year too.
rick stryker,
since policies are not in effect until Jan 2014, why should somebody sign up on day one. you don’t think people are simply window shopping, seeing what is available, comparing to other insurers for the best deal. you are racing to declare failure. not going to happen. i am sure the recalcitrant nature of the republicans to thwart the roll out of obamacare had nothing to do with the bugs that emerged? you act like an arsonist and fireman at the same time-sas really.
most people do not need obamacare-they are simply complaining that others should not gain access while they sit back with health insurance. do you have health insurance? why are you trying to keep others from obtaining insurance? why do you hate your fellow citizens soooo much? very sad.
I can ask you the same question as tj. do you want a delay so that obamacare can be implemented in a smooth fashion? or do you want a delay so you have more time to try and repeal obamacare before it gets implemented? answer honestly.
stryker is baffling,
I’m under no illusion that this monstrosity will be repealed. I want a delay because I’d like to put off the damage Obamacare is likely to do. I feel like a condemned prisoner who hopes that the governor will call to delay my execution.
rick stryker,
in case you missed it, we had a presidential election where one candidate ran on the platform of repealing obamacare, while the other enacted it. guess who won, and by a landslide! i think we have a public mandate, and it is not to repeal obamacare. this was based on a national election-no gerrymandering required.
again, obamacare will not affect you, so why are you against it? why must you keep millions from obtaining affordable healthcare because of a stupid ideology? you, and others of the same ilk, are like a three year old who can only say “NO”. sad. obamacare is here to stay, so you better learn to deal with it rather than becoming a bitter old man.
I think that it’s hilarious that anyone thinks that taking money out of the economy will make it better because of completely misunderstood abstract arguments involving government debt being bad.
If you just take money out of the economy like this, quite objectively, there will be disaster. Imposing disaster is not the job of the government even if you are a libertarian. Go to school and learn some things instead of posting nonsense on blogs if you think this is a good thing.