6 thoughts on “Conference in San Francisco

  1. dilbert dogbert

    Prof, You are a lucky man. You get to work with and teach bright people. Esp bright young people. Keep up the good work.

    1. PeakTrader

      Unfortunately, there aren’t too many women in economics.

      I think, I talked a girl in undergrad econ to go into grad econ instead of law school.

      She told me economics is “sexist.” However, I think, it’s just egotistical.

      Anyway, I think, she would’ve made a lot more money as a lawyer.

    2. PeakTrader

      Also, I may add, there are a lot of foreign students in U.S. colleges.

      I recall a classmate from Kenya, who started grad econ.

      He was wearing some type of turbine and robe when I first met him.

      However, within a few weeks, he was wearing jeans and a t-shirt cheering for the Denver Broncos and Colorado Buffaloes sitting on the couch drinking beer.

  2. Ricardo


    It is a great thing to be honored by your peers. Such an even at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is a great show of respect.

    There were two papers on the Great Recession but both failed to look at root causes of the GR.

    First is a paper UNDERSTANDING THE GREAT RECESSION that states it is based on a New Keynesian model. The following quote is best at demonstrating their bias.

    We seek to understand the key forces driving the US economy in the Great Recession.
    To do so, we require a model that provides an empirically plausible account of key macroeconomic
    [my emphasis]

    Looking at aggregates rather than economic details is like trying to coach a football game by watching from the moon.

    The authors do make one important observation.

    The unemployment
    rate has declined from its Great Recession peak. But, this decline primarily reáects
    a sharp drop in the labor force participation rate, not an improvement in the labor market.

    The second is GREAT MODERATION AND GREAT RECESSION: FROM PLAIN SAILING TO STORMY SEAS? where the authors claim that the Great Recession was an event in the midst of the Great Moderation; the Great Moderation is still going on.

    The global financial crisis of 2007 and the ensuing economic recession has prompted a debate
    on the possible end of the tranquil times of the GM. However, this paper presents evidence
    that the decrease in volatility associated with the GM seems to be quite a permanent phe-
    nomenon that holds in spite of the occurrence of further downturns in the characteristics of
    the GR or even of the fact that this may continue to extended horizons.

    The authors note that most analysis of the GM is based on three explanations:

    The explanations fall into three categories, namely,
    changes in the structure of production, improved policy and good luck.

    It seems illogical that as the government takes greater and greater control of the lives of every-day Americans that rejecting the impact of policy will hamper any analysis before it starts.

    Both papers skip comparing the direction of government, of policy decisions, and especially the Federal Reserve decisions of the Gm to the GR. Once again it appears the papers are examples of theories in search of meaning.

  3. Johnny

    That’s nice James, congratulations to you. And in about a month you will turn 60, the serene years are coming …

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