40 thoughts on “Market Expectation of Shut Down on 1/22 (Monday) Breaks 50-50”
Erik Poole
So the bet implies that the government will be shutdown for at least one day but not necessarily more.
Oh well. Funny to think that Americans have a hard time understand why others prefer proportional representation in British parliamentary styles of government.
randomworker
We do?
2slugbaits
As a practical matter any government shut down wouldn’t happen until Monday, so this gives Congress and the President another couple of days to cobble together a compromise. Of course, that would mean they’d have to work over the weekend…
CoRev
2slugs, you of all people know that your contention: “shut down wouldn’t happen until Monday,” is untrue. For most federal workers,it applies, but for many publicly available services, access to parks and other federal 24/7 services, access is stopped.
Have you considered this is a strategy to ID those truly “essential services” from those not so “essential”? Is it another way to prioritize those federal services in the murky waters of the deep swamp for future budget cuts? Better still, it may be a strategy to cut the federal payroll by failing to pay those “non-essential” employees and blaming the Dems for it. Have the Dems lost the drain the swamp big picture of the Trump administration?
How secure is your function/job? Does it provide adequate return to the tax payer in light of these considerations? Is it possibly a target for out-sourcing?
Remember, it was the Obama administration that weaponized its sympathetic federal workforce against it political enemies. It would be advised to not place that “swamp dweller” target on yourself.
2slugbaits
CoRev Calm down. I said that “as a practical matter” the shut down wouldn’t happen until Monday morning. Yes, some services would be shut down, but since it would mainly affect services over the weekend the impact would be minimal. Not too many folks will be going to national parks in January over a big football weekend.
CoRev
2slugs, calm down? That was a thoughtful and calm response to a blase comment about an important action.
2slugbaits
CoRev I suggested that you calm down because most of the bad impact won’t happen until Monday. There will be some inconveniences on Saturday and Sunday, but little else. No one is saying that a government shutdown over the weekend would be a good thing, but it’s also important to distinguish between inconveniencies over the weekend and more serious problems on Monday. And notice that the prediction market refers to a shutdown on Monday, not Saturday or Sunday.
Bruce Hall
2slug,
Somehow, the Obama administration operated for years without submitting a budget… correct me if I’m wrong… using continuing resolutions ad infinitum.
Budget faceoffs seemed mostly for show.
pgl
Getting the Democrats to vote to extend government funding would be easy as it would require only two things: CHIP and DACA. Both are clearly good policy. Just do it.
CoRev
pgl, Schumer has kidnapped the budget by trying to impose a non-existent sections, CHIP and DACA, into an already passed House Bill. It’s going to take some innovative legislating.
pgl
CoRev wants to absolve the Flipper Flopper in Chief of all responsibility for this mess. CoRev wants to ignore all reality to spin right wing talking points. Ain’t buying.
CoRev
pgl, really?!? Citing facts is spin? Pgl wants to ignore all reality to spin Schumer talking points, while depriving the CHIP eligible children. It’s truly sad when ideology so colors reality. How many children must become sicker or die before you grow a heart large enough to over power your political ideology?
Moses Herzog
I don’t know how quickly Menzie gets around to editing these for content (which, although I don’t particularly like, if I was a professor at a Division 1 school I would do the same as Menzie). Suffice it to say, as I am typing this it is ROUGHLY 21:15 Eastern time of the 19th. I have a bland social life, and I will be watching C-SPAN to 2am eastern time Saturday which I ASSUME is when we will have a conclusion to the CHIP-DACA fiasco. My opinion is this is Republicans’ fault, as they COULD HAVE funded the the CHIP program MONTHS AGO, and decided they would hold a metaphorical gun up to the side of under-nourished children’s head—-which by the way, is a BIG foretelling of kids’ success in learning, whether they have the nutrients and energy to carry out their school day, without focusing on the rumblings of their stomach the entire damned day. These bastard Republicans (and excuse my French Menzie, but anyone who holds children legislative hostage like the Republicans are, fits the term bastard PERFECTLY) have sunk to a near new low. And it would be a new low, if you could forget many of them endorsed a pedo judge running for Senate in Alabama.
That being said, I think by Monday the shutdown will not happen, because a certain segment of Democrats, although on higher moral ground than Republicans, lack a […edited by MDC] sack.
joseph
The shutdown is entirely the fault of Republicans. They have the majority in both houses and the White House. They could simply pass a budget resolution bill with 51 votes in the Senate. But they are not using a budget resolution because they want to save their one 51-vote opportunity this year for another pass at Obamacare repeal or welfare cuts, not for something simple like passing a budget.
This impasse is entirely on the backs of Republicans. They have the 51 votes to pass a budget resolution if they wanted. They could do it today if they wanted. Apparently they prefer the shutdown confrontation instead.
PeakTrader
The once a fiscal year continuing resolution was used for the tax cut. The Senate needs 60 votes.
Shutting the government down over DACA is ridiculous. American citizens need to drain the swamp in 2018.
baffling
Perhaps it would have been more appropriate to let the 60 vote requirement apply to the tax cut, which has far reaching impacts on the entire country. Instead they wanted to play partisan hackery and push through legislation as a one party system. You simply want to repeal the 60 vote requirement for any republican legislation, because you are not interested in the concept of compromise. So instead, the republicans backed themselves into a corner and shut down the government.
CoRev
Joseph, you are completely wrong!!! The Tax Reform Bill was passed using reconciliation rules for the FY 2018 budget. Without changing the Senate Rules, it can not be used again for this FY 2018 Budget Continuing Resolution. Under current rules it takes a super majority to pass appropriation/spending bills.
Harry Reed suspended the rules late in the Obama administration, and they were reimposed under McCconnell. Are you suggesting the Senate re-implement the 51 vote nuclear option? Without that option implemented a few Senators can stop legislation.
Therefore this shutdown is entirely the fault of Democrats, especially Chuck Schumer.
pgl
Schumer had a deal with Trump even last night until the hard right heard about it. Then Trump changed his mind again.
baffling
Actually trump did not change his mind. He has minions in the White House who have basically learned how to control trump behind the scenes. These trump whisperers can get him to change on a dime, and trump believes that is is he who is doing the changing. Kelly can get him to change his position 180 degrees on just about anything, and Donny has no idea what happened. Makes you wonder who is really in control at the White House.
joseph
PeakTrader: “The once a fiscal year continuing resolution was used for the tax cut. The Senate needs 60 votes.”
Nope. That was last year. This is a new year and a new budget resolution for 2019. Republicans don’t need a single Democratic vote to pass a budget resolution this year with 51 votes. In fact, this year’s budget resolution for 2019 is due by April 15, just a few weeks away, although that deadline is rarely met. But there is nothing preventing Republicans from passing their budget resolution today.
CoRev
The politics related to the Dem DACA demands in a continuing resolution, where no such provision exists in the passed house resolution currently under consideration in the senate and causing the shutdown. In September President Trump cancelled the DACA order created by under an Obama presidential decree.
Immigration policy, including DACA, has been a key issue in the past weeks resulting in a WH meeting. One description of the meeting included this conclusion: “During the closed-door portion of the meeting, they reached an agreement to negotiate legislation that accomplishes critically needed reforms in four high-priority areas: border security, chain migration, the visa lottery, and the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy.” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-hosts-bipartisan-meeting-on-immigration-at-white-house-live-stream/
The negotiated proposal resulting from this meeting did not include or were weak on the four priorities that what was understood to be in the agreement: border security, chain migration, the visa lottery, and the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy.
Dems failed to include them in the House Continuing Resolution(CR) for short term federal funding. When it reached the Senate, Dems lead by Schumer, tried to introduce the non-existent DACA requiremen, which would have sent the CR back to the House where it had already failed.
Senate Dems, still being lead by Schumer, locked arms and stalled any action on the House passed CR. So, now we have a budget driven shutdown of the Federal Government.
And Dems want to blame Republicans, especially President Trump.
baffling
We need funding for the government, we need to provide food for our children, and we need to protect children who came here young as the only country they have ever known. This can be corrected in one fell swoop. Note it was trumps actions that created the DACA drama to begin with. He created the problem and now wants somebody else to clean it up. What an irrresponsible freak.
CoRev
You obviously don’t know how Congress passes funding legislation. DACA has already failed in the House.
Blaming Trump indicates you ether didn’t read or understand what I reported from CBS News. You obviously don’t understand that Trump tried to strengthen by having Congress enact it into law. Plus it was Dems who called for a clean DACA Bill.
As time goes on the Dem position will become weaker. Any reporting on children missing medical care or an illegal caught in a felony will be widely reported and blamed on the Dem actions.
Your TDS is coloring your thinking.
CoRev
Let’s talk appropriations. If you don’t fully understand the budget legislative process, and most do not, “appropriations bills” are the actual funding documents allowing funds to flow to Federal Government Agencies. On 9/14/2017 the House passed its FY 2018 omnibus appropriations Bill. An omnibus bill is a combination of several/all appropriations bills, and this included all house appropriations.
Since mid-September, when the omnibus bill was delivered, the Senate has passed NO appropriations bill(s), except for Continuing Resolutions (CR). CRs are agreements to continue to fund the Government, usually at the level of the previous FY, and typically for a limited period.
It is the current CR in Senate deliberations that Chuck Schumer that tried to attach the DACA policy provision. That same issue was broached when the house passed this version of the CR, but was defeated. To re-introduce in the Senate requires the CR Bill to return to the House for deliberations. This adds time to the shut down period.
Let me repeat a point: it was Chuck Schumer that tried to attach the DACA policy provision with full knowledge of its procedural ramifications. He was able to do this by using the Senate’s modern filibuster rules, which requires a super majority of votes to end. The DACA policy provision was not needed since it was still in effect until March, making its inclusion in the CR mostly a political/b> act.
Anyone claiming that it was Trump actions that caused the shut down does not understand the process or ignores the politics surrounding it.
baffling
of course we would not be in this position if trump had not originally taken action on daca. he created this problem. then he and the republicans have promised to address it, but never followed through. how many times should trump and the republicans be able to use daca to extract additional concessions from the democrats? trump and company played politics first.
CoRev
Baffled, yup, President Trump is trying to codify DACA by deciding to cancel it and allow time for Congress to write DACA into a comprehensive immigration reform LAW. It was Schumer who failed to discuss immigration reform by presenting something much less than agreed to in the meeting. Schumer’s next act was to try to include DACA alone in the CR, while ignoring the comprehensive immigration reform.
Let me correct another of your misstatements/misconceptions: should Schumer and the Democrats be able to use DACA to extract additional concessions from the Republicans? The current agreement is for the Senate to take up DACA alone if a comprehensive immigration bill is not passed. Essentially Schumer got nothing out of the shutdown. A promise is not action, and DACA is still linked to a comprehensive immigration reform bill.
baffling
once again, trump created the problem with daca. he and the republicans have no intention of fixing the issue. they want daca to die. i am under no illusion that mcconnell and company will do everything possible to not address it in the next couple of weeks. “A promise is not action” will certainly describe the integrity of the conservative leadership.
it is unfortunate that trump, and conservatives like yourself, are willing to sacrifice dreamers for a political ideology. sad and pathetic.
CoRev
Baffled, you’re wrong again: “Trump…they want daca to die”. If Trump wanted that he could have just cancelled the Obama Executive Order. The rest of your comment is pure nonsense.
baffling
corev, why can’t you simply admit that trump and the rest of the conservatives are happy to let daca die, or simply use it to extract even more concessions. you simply have no concern for those young children. sad and pathetic.
joseph
What Corev is ignoring is that there is a very simple legislative process for passing appropriations. It is the budget resolution process which is codified into law. The budget resolution process cannot be filibustered so Republicans have no excuse for not passing a budget. They only need 51 votes in the Senate.
Except Republicans squandered their budget resolution for fiscal 2017 on trying to repeal Obamacare. They didn’t care about the budget. Then Republicans squandered their budget resolution for fiscal 2018 on tax cuts for the rich. They were too busy to be bothered with the budget.
But there is the fiscal 2019 budget resolution that is available to Republicans today, using 51 votes in the Senate, if they wanted to use it as designed, miracle of miracles, for the budget. But instead, they are saving it to use to either take another pass at Obamacare repeal or for welfare cuts.
So Republicans always had and still have the ability to pass a budget and appropriations with 51 votes. They just don’t want to do it. Continuing resolutions save their once a year budget resolution, the one they can pass with 51 votes, for their non-budget priorities, Obamacare and welfare cuts.
The 2019 budget resolution is by rules, supposed to be passed no later than this April, but there is nothing preventing them from passing it today. And there is nothing in the rules preventing Republicans from including the remainder of 2018 in their 2019 budget resolution. Why aren’t they doing their jobs and working on that?
CoRev
Joseph, you are so wrong it is fruitless to try to correct. Here’s a hint. Get your budget years, your budget actions & their dates and the difference between law and internal rules straight. Budget authorizations, appropriations and Continuing Resolutions are all different steps. Try to understand the process. Or not! You can always continue looking foolishly ignorant.
joseph
Corev, budget resolution was the process congress put in place to eliminate the logjams that regularly occurred over the appropriations process. It cannot be filibustered. It requires only 51 votes in the senate. Republicans do not need one Democratic vote to pass a budget reconciliation bill.
Republicans squandered their last two reconciliation bills on Obamacare repeal and tax cuts for the rich. They are refusing to use budget reconciliation now to pass a budget. They don’t need any Democratic votes. They are incompetent. This continuing resolution debacle is entirely their own creation.
CoRev
Joseph, none of this fixes the errors in your previous comment.
As for your 1st paragraph re: the budget resolution process, it is incorrect. I think you are confusing the Budget Reconciliation process with the far more generic Budget Resolution process. (You used both terms in the paragraph) It is Reconciliation where the limits you cited: ( It requires only 51 votes in the senate. ) You also failed to note: “Reconciliation bills can be passed on spending, revenues, and the federal debt limit[4] once a year per topic unless Congress passes a revised budget resolution for that fiscal year (under section 304 of the Congressional Budget Act).” Wiki came up early in the search: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconciliation_(United_States_Congress)
Your definition of “squander” is probably not the same as many other American voters. However, the Obamacare Repeal and Replace Bill did not pass using reconciliation probably for spending. I believe the Tax Reform bill was passed using the revenue category for reconciliation. 2 of 3 reconciliation options down.
You are especially wrong on the responsibility for the shut down. Schumer completely over played his hand.
joseph
Corev, there are two steps to the budget process. First you pass a budget resolution that provides instructions and guidelines for the budget. Then, using the instructions in the budget resolution, you pass a budget reconciliation bill. Neither of these can be filibustered. Both require only 51 votes in the senate and no Democrats.
The Obamacare repeal attempt used the fiscal 2017 budget resolution which was left over because Republicans failed to use it in 2017. This included spending and revenue. Then they used the fiscal 2018 budget resolution for the tax cuts for the rich which included spending and revenue.
They now are eligible to write a budget resolution for fiscal 2019. In fact, according to the rules that resolution is due by April 15, although there is no reason they can’t do it now.
Note that the budget resolution and budget reconciliation bill coming out of the resolution are both filibuster-proof.
There is no reason the Republicans can’t pass a budget right now. They have avoided doing that for the last two years, instead using their 51-vote reconciliation bills on Obamacare and tax cuts.
CoRev
Joseph, this is just wrong. “there are two steps to the budget process” You forgot the Executive (Pres & Agencies) side, the appropriations step in Congress, and the expenditure steps also Executive (Pres & Agencies) side. Or to simplify the processes, they can be broken into 3 phases 1) Planning – Presidential budget and Congressional Resolutions, 2) Implementation – Congressional allocation bills, 3) Execution – spending by the Federal Agencies.
Also please do some reading. This might help your confused understanding. https://www.nationalpriorities.org/budget-basics/federal-budget-101/federal-budget-process/
In it you will find this statement “A budget resolution is not a binding document, but it provides a framework for Congress for making budget decisions about spending and taxes. ” Since it is a framework with limits and goals the and separate resolutions are created in the Senate and House, they go through a reconciliation process to resolve differences.
BUT RESOLUTIONS ARE NOT SPENDING/APPROPRIATIONS BILLS. They are internal Congressional documents that do not go to the President. There is no reason to filibuster an internal framework document, unless the Senate and House have diametrically opposed budget goals. It is in the appropriations process where the reconciliations process is most important. If budget allocations are not passed the Government shuts down.
From where did you get- they used the 2017 reconciliations for 2018 bills?
joseph
Covrev is one of those prime examples of the Dunning-Kruger Effect — someone so stupid that are unable to recognize their own stupidity.
Corev, spends a minute on google and two minutes on wikipedia and thinks he is an expert on a subject.
I’ve tried at least three times to patiently explain to him how the budget process works but he still doesn’t get it. The budget resolution is the step where they write instructions and guidelines for the budget. Then they pass a budget reconciliation bill that does the actual appropriations and taxing, according to the instructions in the resolution. Neither of these bills can be filibustered. Both are passed with 51 votes in the senate.
Republicans used the 2017 budget reconciliation bill not for the 2017 budget as intended, but to attempt to repeal Obamacare. Remember the big rush to the deadline in September? That was because the parliamentarian ruled that the 2017 budget reconciliation bill expired at the end of the 2017 fiscal year on September 30. Republicans failed to pass the bill by the end of fiscal 2017 and Obamacare repeal failed.
So then they switched to the 2018 budget resolution bill. This resolution bill was supposed to be passed back last April so that the 2018 budget reconciliation could be be passed before the start of the 2018 fiscal year in October. But they were so busy working on Obamacare repeal they never got around to actually doing their jobs and writing a budget. So in October, 6 months late, the quickly passed the 2018 budget resolution (after the 2018 fiscal year had already started, mind you) with instructions not for the budget, but instead for their other hobby horse, tax cuts for the rich. It took them until December to finally pass the 2018 budget reconciliation bill for their tax cuts. This required only 51 votes in the senate because it was a budget reconciliation bill, even though it didn’t really do what it was supposed to do, make the appropriations for the 2018 budget.
So here we are four months into the 2018 fiscal year and Republicans still haven’t passed a budget. Note that if they had used the 2018 budget reconciliation bill for the actual budget instead of tax cuts for the rich, we wouldn’t be here right now trying to pass continuing resolutions. Republicans could have avoided that by using their 51-vote budget reconciliation bill for the actual budget appropriations instead of tax cuts. They didn’t need one Democratic vote to do so. They simply failed to do their jobs. So here they are stuck with a continuing resolution bill that requires 60 votes and it is entirely their own fault.
CoRev
Joseph, sorry, as I’ve tried to explain you are just wrong about reconciliation. Moreover you are wrong about this: “I’ve tried at least three times to patiently explain to him how the budget process works but he still doesn’t get it.” After ~3 decades in the Federal Governmental and two degrees in P. Admin, i have a very good understanding of the steps and the terms used in the Federal Budget Process.
You are partially correct, finally re: what has been passed. On October 26, 2017 the House passed the Senate version of the budget resolution, so a reconciliation step was unneeded. Reconciliation target areas are specified in the Budget Resolution, and are not often used for appropriations. However, the 2018 version of the resolution included reconciliation instructions for two committees: the Finance Committee to develop legislative proposals for $1.5 trillion in “comprehensive tax reform” and the Energy and Natural Resources Committee to find $1 billion in deficit reductions.
As you have noted the 2018 Tax Reform Bill was passed in Dec. We have yet to address the 2nd reconciliation target, the deficit. That will be handled with the legislation raising the debt ceiling.
I’ve cited this reference already: https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation
It says this: “Created by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, reconciliation allows for expedited consideration of certain tax, spending, and debt limit legislation. In the Senate, reconciliation bills aren’t subject to filibuster and the scope of amendments is limited, giving this process real advantages for enacting controversial budget and tax measures….” Reconciliation is a special form of expedited legislation in those three budget areas cited above. It is not used to implement/fund the budget. Appropriations acts do that. The Senate has not passed any 2018 appropriations bills to date. These bills follow the normal Senate rules. Differences between House and Senate versions of specific appropriations are resolved by passing amended version of the bills back and forth until agreement is reached or with “Conference Committees”. It is not uncommon to see the term “reconciliation” in its general sense used for this step.
You have finally researched enough to correct this misstatement: “The Obamacare repeal attempt used the fiscal 2017 budget resolution which was left over because Republicans failed to use it in 2017.” The Obamacare Repeal was in fact a 2017 Act. The 2017 Reconciliation used was not left over. It ended with the fiscal year.
joseph
Corev: “Reconciliation is a special form of expedited legislation in those three budget areas cited above. It is not used to implement/fund the budget.”
Covrev, what do you think appropriations are? They are spending. What do you think a budget bill is? It’s a bill that defines the revenue and spending for the budget. That is the entire purpose of the reconciliation bill. To be able to define revenue and spending (appropriations) without requiring a 60 votes in the senate.
Reconciliation bills are most commonly used for Omnibus Budget Acts — appropriation and tax bills.
The Republicans have failed to use their ability to pass appropriations for the budget unimpeded by Democrats. They could have done this without a single Democratic vote.
As for the 2017 reconciliation bill, that was supposed to be passed before the beginning of the 2017 fiscal year in October 2016. Instead, Republicans attempted to use it up until the last day of the 2017 fiscal year in September 2017 in a failed attempt to repeal Obamacare. It should have been passed in 2016, but they had it leftover for the end of 2017, a waste of a reconciliation bill.
Republicans don’t need a single vote to pass an Omnibus Budget bill to cover appropriation. They have majorities in the senate and house and the White House. The fact that the Republicans have failed to use their filibuster-proof and veto-proof majorities to pass a budget and funding bill is gross incompetence.
CoRev
Joseph, I give up. I know the actual meaning of these terms can be complex, but your misuse and misunderstanding of them is extraordinary. A resolution is Congress’s plan defining spending and taxing goals. It requires appropriations bill(s) to actually complete a budget. It takes a bill to pass appropriations, omnibus and singularly. A resolution is NOT A BIL. It is a plan, and it can not appropriate. Without appropriations there is no budget and the Government shuts down.
For all your griping about Repubs and budgets, the Dem controlled Congress passed a budget resolution only once from 2007 thru 2011. Most appropriations during this period were CRs, many times for the bulk or total FY.
CoRev
Joseph, you have been wrong in your basic assumption(s) from the beginning.
Joseph, let me explain that a reconciliation bill is just one form of an appropriation. Current usage is for reconciliations bills to be used for special purposes that are defined in the Joint Resolution. Had you read my earlier reference (provided twice) you could have found this:
“How Does Congress Start the Reconciliation Process?
To start the reconciliation process, the House and Senate must agree on a budget resolution that includes “reconciliation directives” for specified committees. Under the Congressional Budget Act, the House and Senate are supposed to adopt a budget resolution each year to establish an overall budget plan and set guidelines for action on spending and revenue. The Senate is not permitted to filibuster consideration of budget resolutions. Budget resolutions don’t go to the President for signature and don’t become law; reconciliation is a procedure for enacting parts of a budget resolution into law.
In developing a budget resolution, Congress must decide whether to include reconciliation directives and, if so, whether to use them to implement all or just some of the proposed changes. ”
Yes, the 2017 and 2018 resolutions included reconciliation directives and had you read and understood the reference (provided twice) you would have seen examples of actual use of reconciliation bills:
“How Often Have Policymakers Used Reconciliation?
Policymakers have enacted 20 budget reconciliation bills since 1980, the first year they employed the process; four other measures were approved by Congress but vetoed by the President.[1] Policymakers used reconciliation to enact major spending cuts during President Reagan’s first year in office, several deficit-reduction packages during the 1980s and 1990s, welfare reform in 1996, and the large Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003. Reconciliation was most recently used in 2010 to help pass the Affordable Care Act and modify the federal student loan program, and then in 2016 in a vetoed attempt to repeal key elements of the Affordable Care Act.”
As you can see, if you had read the reference (now provided twice) you would have learned that although allowed for use with omnibus appropriations, it is seldom used for such. Instead practical use includes a list of very special legislation.
Finally, you have claimed in various forms:
“Republicans don’t need a single vote to pass an Omnibus Budget bill to cover appropriation. They have majorities in the senate and house and the White House. The fact that the Republicans have failed to use their filibuster-proof and veto-proof majorities to pass a budget and funding bill is gross incompetence.” (highlighted to show inconsistent or mis-use of terms) Had you read and understood that ole reference included twice for your edification, you woudl have learned the reconciliation is not used as you propose.
” Reconciliation has not been used to change “discretionary” spending, which is spending controlled through the annual appropriations process.”
Accordingly, without discretionary spending appropriations the Federal Government shuts down and all already completed Congressional budget steps do not result in an actual budget for Agencies to use.
Put succinctly – no appropriations no actual budget.
Joseph, you have been wrong in your basic assumption(s) from the beginning.
So the bet implies that the government will be shutdown for at least one day but not necessarily more.
Oh well. Funny to think that Americans have a hard time understand why others prefer proportional representation in British parliamentary styles of government.
We do?
As a practical matter any government shut down wouldn’t happen until Monday, so this gives Congress and the President another couple of days to cobble together a compromise. Of course, that would mean they’d have to work over the weekend…
2slugs, you of all people know that your contention: “shut down wouldn’t happen until Monday,” is untrue. For most federal workers,it applies, but for many publicly available services, access to parks and other federal 24/7 services, access is stopped.
Have you considered this is a strategy to ID those truly “essential services” from those not so “essential”? Is it another way to prioritize those federal services in the murky waters of the deep swamp for future budget cuts? Better still, it may be a strategy to cut the federal payroll by failing to pay those “non-essential” employees and blaming the Dems for it. Have the Dems lost the drain the swamp big picture of the Trump administration?
How secure is your function/job? Does it provide adequate return to the tax payer in light of these considerations? Is it possibly a target for out-sourcing?
Remember, it was the Obama administration that weaponized its sympathetic federal workforce against it political enemies. It would be advised to not place that “swamp dweller” target on yourself.
CoRev Calm down. I said that “as a practical matter” the shut down wouldn’t happen until Monday morning. Yes, some services would be shut down, but since it would mainly affect services over the weekend the impact would be minimal. Not too many folks will be going to national parks in January over a big football weekend.
2slugs, calm down? That was a thoughtful and calm response to a blase comment about an important action.
CoRev I suggested that you calm down because most of the bad impact won’t happen until Monday. There will be some inconveniences on Saturday and Sunday, but little else. No one is saying that a government shutdown over the weekend would be a good thing, but it’s also important to distinguish between inconveniencies over the weekend and more serious problems on Monday. And notice that the prediction market refers to a shutdown on Monday, not Saturday or Sunday.
2slug,
Somehow, the Obama administration operated for years without submitting a budget… correct me if I’m wrong… using continuing resolutions ad infinitum.
Budget faceoffs seemed mostly for show.
Getting the Democrats to vote to extend government funding would be easy as it would require only two things: CHIP and DACA. Both are clearly good policy. Just do it.
pgl, Schumer has kidnapped the budget by trying to impose a non-existent sections, CHIP and DACA, into an already passed House Bill. It’s going to take some innovative legislating.
CoRev wants to absolve the Flipper Flopper in Chief of all responsibility for this mess. CoRev wants to ignore all reality to spin right wing talking points. Ain’t buying.
pgl, really?!? Citing facts is spin? Pgl wants to ignore all reality to spin Schumer talking points, while depriving the CHIP eligible children. It’s truly sad when ideology so colors reality. How many children must become sicker or die before you grow a heart large enough to over power your political ideology?
I don’t know how quickly Menzie gets around to editing these for content (which, although I don’t particularly like, if I was a professor at a Division 1 school I would do the same as Menzie). Suffice it to say, as I am typing this it is ROUGHLY 21:15 Eastern time of the 19th. I have a bland social life, and I will be watching C-SPAN to 2am eastern time Saturday which I ASSUME is when we will have a conclusion to the CHIP-DACA fiasco. My opinion is this is Republicans’ fault, as they COULD HAVE funded the the CHIP program MONTHS AGO, and decided they would hold a metaphorical gun up to the side of under-nourished children’s head—-which by the way, is a BIG foretelling of kids’ success in learning, whether they have the nutrients and energy to carry out their school day, without focusing on the rumblings of their stomach the entire damned day. These bastard Republicans (and excuse my French Menzie, but anyone who holds children legislative hostage like the Republicans are, fits the term bastard PERFECTLY) have sunk to a near new low. And it would be a new low, if you could forget many of them endorsed a pedo judge running for Senate in Alabama.
That being said, I think by Monday the shutdown will not happen, because a certain segment of Democrats, although on higher moral ground than Republicans, lack a […edited by MDC] sack.
The shutdown is entirely the fault of Republicans. They have the majority in both houses and the White House. They could simply pass a budget resolution bill with 51 votes in the Senate. But they are not using a budget resolution because they want to save their one 51-vote opportunity this year for another pass at Obamacare repeal or welfare cuts, not for something simple like passing a budget.
This impasse is entirely on the backs of Republicans. They have the 51 votes to pass a budget resolution if they wanted. They could do it today if they wanted. Apparently they prefer the shutdown confrontation instead.
The once a fiscal year continuing resolution was used for the tax cut. The Senate needs 60 votes.
Shutting the government down over DACA is ridiculous. American citizens need to drain the swamp in 2018.
Perhaps it would have been more appropriate to let the 60 vote requirement apply to the tax cut, which has far reaching impacts on the entire country. Instead they wanted to play partisan hackery and push through legislation as a one party system. You simply want to repeal the 60 vote requirement for any republican legislation, because you are not interested in the concept of compromise. So instead, the republicans backed themselves into a corner and shut down the government.
Joseph, you are completely wrong!!! The Tax Reform Bill was passed using reconciliation rules for the FY 2018 budget. Without changing the Senate Rules, it can not be used again for this FY 2018 Budget Continuing Resolution. Under current rules it takes a super majority to pass appropriation/spending bills.
Harry Reed suspended the rules late in the Obama administration, and they were reimposed under McCconnell. Are you suggesting the Senate re-implement the 51 vote nuclear option? Without that option implemented a few Senators can stop legislation.
Therefore this shutdown is entirely the fault of Democrats, especially Chuck Schumer.
Schumer had a deal with Trump even last night until the hard right heard about it. Then Trump changed his mind again.
Actually trump did not change his mind. He has minions in the White House who have basically learned how to control trump behind the scenes. These trump whisperers can get him to change on a dime, and trump believes that is is he who is doing the changing. Kelly can get him to change his position 180 degrees on just about anything, and Donny has no idea what happened. Makes you wonder who is really in control at the White House.
PeakTrader: “The once a fiscal year continuing resolution was used for the tax cut. The Senate needs 60 votes.”
Nope. That was last year. This is a new year and a new budget resolution for 2019. Republicans don’t need a single Democratic vote to pass a budget resolution this year with 51 votes. In fact, this year’s budget resolution for 2019 is due by April 15, just a few weeks away, although that deadline is rarely met. But there is nothing preventing Republicans from passing their budget resolution today.
The politics related to the Dem DACA demands in a continuing resolution, where no such provision exists in the passed house resolution currently under consideration in the senate and causing the shutdown. In September President Trump cancelled the DACA order created by under an Obama presidential decree.
Immigration policy, including DACA, has been a key issue in the past weeks resulting in a WH meeting. One description of the meeting included this conclusion: “During the closed-door portion of the meeting, they reached an agreement to negotiate legislation that accomplishes critically needed reforms in four high-priority areas: border security, chain migration, the visa lottery, and the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy.” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-hosts-bipartisan-meeting-on-immigration-at-white-house-live-stream/
The negotiated proposal resulting from this meeting did not include or were weak on the four priorities that what was understood to be in the agreement: border security, chain migration, the visa lottery, and the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy.
Dems failed to include them in the House Continuing Resolution(CR) for short term federal funding. When it reached the Senate, Dems lead by Schumer, tried to introduce the non-existent DACA requiremen, which would have sent the CR back to the House where it had already failed.
Senate Dems, still being lead by Schumer, locked arms and stalled any action on the House passed CR. So, now we have a budget driven shutdown of the Federal Government.
And Dems want to blame Republicans, especially President Trump.
We need funding for the government, we need to provide food for our children, and we need to protect children who came here young as the only country they have ever known. This can be corrected in one fell swoop. Note it was trumps actions that created the DACA drama to begin with. He created the problem and now wants somebody else to clean it up. What an irrresponsible freak.
You obviously don’t know how Congress passes funding legislation. DACA has already failed in the House.
Blaming Trump indicates you ether didn’t read or understand what I reported from CBS News. You obviously don’t understand that Trump tried to strengthen by having Congress enact it into law. Plus it was Dems who called for a clean DACA Bill.
As time goes on the Dem position will become weaker. Any reporting on children missing medical care or an illegal caught in a felony will be widely reported and blamed on the Dem actions.
Your TDS is coloring your thinking.
Let’s talk appropriations. If you don’t fully understand the budget legislative process, and most do not, “appropriations bills” are the actual funding documents allowing funds to flow to Federal Government Agencies. On 9/14/2017 the House passed its FY 2018 omnibus appropriations Bill. An omnibus bill is a combination of several/all appropriations bills, and this included all house appropriations.
Since mid-September, when the omnibus bill was delivered, the Senate has passed NO appropriations bill(s), except for Continuing Resolutions (CR). CRs are agreements to continue to fund the Government, usually at the level of the previous FY, and typically for a limited period.
It is the current CR in Senate deliberations that Chuck Schumer that tried to attach the DACA policy provision. That same issue was broached when the house passed this version of the CR, but was defeated. To re-introduce in the Senate requires the CR Bill to return to the House for deliberations. This adds time to the shut down period.
Let me repeat a point: it was Chuck Schumer that tried to attach the DACA policy provision with full knowledge of its procedural ramifications. He was able to do this by using the Senate’s modern filibuster rules, which requires a super majority of votes to end. The DACA policy provision was not needed since it was still in effect until March, making its inclusion in the CR mostly a political/b> act.
Anyone claiming that it was Trump actions that caused the shut down does not understand the process or ignores the politics surrounding it.
of course we would not be in this position if trump had not originally taken action on daca. he created this problem. then he and the republicans have promised to address it, but never followed through. how many times should trump and the republicans be able to use daca to extract additional concessions from the democrats? trump and company played politics first.
Baffled, yup, President Trump is trying to codify DACA by deciding to cancel it and allow time for Congress to write DACA into a comprehensive immigration reform LAW. It was Schumer who failed to discuss immigration reform by presenting something much less than agreed to in the meeting. Schumer’s next act was to try to include DACA alone in the CR, while ignoring the comprehensive immigration reform.
Let me correct another of your misstatements/misconceptions: should Schumer and the Democrats be able to use DACA to extract additional concessions from the Republicans? The current agreement is for the Senate to take up DACA alone if a comprehensive immigration bill is not passed. Essentially Schumer got nothing out of the shutdown. A promise is not action, and DACA is still linked to a comprehensive immigration reform bill.
once again, trump created the problem with daca. he and the republicans have no intention of fixing the issue. they want daca to die. i am under no illusion that mcconnell and company will do everything possible to not address it in the next couple of weeks. “A promise is not action” will certainly describe the integrity of the conservative leadership.
it is unfortunate that trump, and conservatives like yourself, are willing to sacrifice dreamers for a political ideology. sad and pathetic.
Baffled, you’re wrong again: “Trump…they want daca to die”. If Trump wanted that he could have just cancelled the Obama Executive Order. The rest of your comment is pure nonsense.
corev, why can’t you simply admit that trump and the rest of the conservatives are happy to let daca die, or simply use it to extract even more concessions. you simply have no concern for those young children. sad and pathetic.
What Corev is ignoring is that there is a very simple legislative process for passing appropriations. It is the budget resolution process which is codified into law. The budget resolution process cannot be filibustered so Republicans have no excuse for not passing a budget. They only need 51 votes in the Senate.
Except Republicans squandered their budget resolution for fiscal 2017 on trying to repeal Obamacare. They didn’t care about the budget. Then Republicans squandered their budget resolution for fiscal 2018 on tax cuts for the rich. They were too busy to be bothered with the budget.
But there is the fiscal 2019 budget resolution that is available to Republicans today, using 51 votes in the Senate, if they wanted to use it as designed, miracle of miracles, for the budget. But instead, they are saving it to use to either take another pass at Obamacare repeal or for welfare cuts.
So Republicans always had and still have the ability to pass a budget and appropriations with 51 votes. They just don’t want to do it. Continuing resolutions save their once a year budget resolution, the one they can pass with 51 votes, for their non-budget priorities, Obamacare and welfare cuts.
The 2019 budget resolution is by rules, supposed to be passed no later than this April, but there is nothing preventing them from passing it today. And there is nothing in the rules preventing Republicans from including the remainder of 2018 in their 2019 budget resolution. Why aren’t they doing their jobs and working on that?
Joseph, you are so wrong it is fruitless to try to correct. Here’s a hint. Get your budget years, your budget actions & their dates and the difference between law and internal rules straight. Budget authorizations, appropriations and Continuing Resolutions are all different steps. Try to understand the process. Or not! You can always continue looking foolishly ignorant.
Corev, budget resolution was the process congress put in place to eliminate the logjams that regularly occurred over the appropriations process. It cannot be filibustered. It requires only 51 votes in the senate. Republicans do not need one Democratic vote to pass a budget reconciliation bill.
Republicans squandered their last two reconciliation bills on Obamacare repeal and tax cuts for the rich. They are refusing to use budget reconciliation now to pass a budget. They don’t need any Democratic votes. They are incompetent. This continuing resolution debacle is entirely their own creation.
Joseph, none of this fixes the errors in your previous comment.
As for your 1st paragraph re: the budget resolution process, it is incorrect. I think you are confusing the Budget Reconciliation process with the far more generic Budget Resolution process. (You used both terms in the paragraph) It is Reconciliation where the limits you cited: ( It requires only 51 votes in the senate. ) You also failed to note: “Reconciliation bills can be passed on spending, revenues, and the federal debt limit[4] once a year per topic unless Congress passes a revised budget resolution for that fiscal year (under section 304 of the Congressional Budget Act).” Wiki came up early in the search: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconciliation_(United_States_Congress)
Your definition of “squander” is probably not the same as many other American voters. However, the Obamacare Repeal and Replace Bill did not pass using reconciliation probably for spending. I believe the Tax Reform bill was passed using the revenue category for reconciliation. 2 of 3 reconciliation options down.
You are especially wrong on the responsibility for the shut down. Schumer completely over played his hand.
Corev, there are two steps to the budget process. First you pass a budget resolution that provides instructions and guidelines for the budget. Then, using the instructions in the budget resolution, you pass a budget reconciliation bill. Neither of these can be filibustered. Both require only 51 votes in the senate and no Democrats.
The Obamacare repeal attempt used the fiscal 2017 budget resolution which was left over because Republicans failed to use it in 2017. This included spending and revenue. Then they used the fiscal 2018 budget resolution for the tax cuts for the rich which included spending and revenue.
They now are eligible to write a budget resolution for fiscal 2019. In fact, according to the rules that resolution is due by April 15, although there is no reason they can’t do it now.
Note that the budget resolution and budget reconciliation bill coming out of the resolution are both filibuster-proof.
There is no reason the Republicans can’t pass a budget right now. They have avoided doing that for the last two years, instead using their 51-vote reconciliation bills on Obamacare and tax cuts.
Joseph, this is just wrong. “there are two steps to the budget process” You forgot the Executive (Pres & Agencies) side, the appropriations step in Congress, and the expenditure steps also Executive (Pres & Agencies) side. Or to simplify the processes, they can be broken into 3 phases 1) Planning – Presidential budget and Congressional Resolutions, 2) Implementation – Congressional allocation bills, 3) Execution – spending by the Federal Agencies.
Also please do some reading. This might help your confused understanding. https://www.nationalpriorities.org/budget-basics/federal-budget-101/federal-budget-process/
In it you will find this statement “A budget resolution is not a binding document, but it provides a framework for Congress for making budget decisions about spending and taxes. ” Since it is a framework with limits and goals the and separate resolutions are created in the Senate and House, they go through a reconciliation process to resolve differences.
BUT RESOLUTIONS ARE NOT SPENDING/APPROPRIATIONS BILLS. They are internal Congressional documents that do not go to the President. There is no reason to filibuster an internal framework document, unless the Senate and House have diametrically opposed budget goals. It is in the appropriations process where the reconciliations process is most important. If budget allocations are not passed the Government shuts down.
From where did you get- they used the 2017 reconciliations for 2018 bills?
Covrev is one of those prime examples of the Dunning-Kruger Effect — someone so stupid that are unable to recognize their own stupidity.
Corev, spends a minute on google and two minutes on wikipedia and thinks he is an expert on a subject.
I’ve tried at least three times to patiently explain to him how the budget process works but he still doesn’t get it. The budget resolution is the step where they write instructions and guidelines for the budget. Then they pass a budget reconciliation bill that does the actual appropriations and taxing, according to the instructions in the resolution. Neither of these bills can be filibustered. Both are passed with 51 votes in the senate.
Republicans used the 2017 budget reconciliation bill not for the 2017 budget as intended, but to attempt to repeal Obamacare. Remember the big rush to the deadline in September? That was because the parliamentarian ruled that the 2017 budget reconciliation bill expired at the end of the 2017 fiscal year on September 30. Republicans failed to pass the bill by the end of fiscal 2017 and Obamacare repeal failed.
So then they switched to the 2018 budget resolution bill. This resolution bill was supposed to be passed back last April so that the 2018 budget reconciliation could be be passed before the start of the 2018 fiscal year in October. But they were so busy working on Obamacare repeal they never got around to actually doing their jobs and writing a budget. So in October, 6 months late, the quickly passed the 2018 budget resolution (after the 2018 fiscal year had already started, mind you) with instructions not for the budget, but instead for their other hobby horse, tax cuts for the rich. It took them until December to finally pass the 2018 budget reconciliation bill for their tax cuts. This required only 51 votes in the senate because it was a budget reconciliation bill, even though it didn’t really do what it was supposed to do, make the appropriations for the 2018 budget.
So here we are four months into the 2018 fiscal year and Republicans still haven’t passed a budget. Note that if they had used the 2018 budget reconciliation bill for the actual budget instead of tax cuts for the rich, we wouldn’t be here right now trying to pass continuing resolutions. Republicans could have avoided that by using their 51-vote budget reconciliation bill for the actual budget appropriations instead of tax cuts. They didn’t need one Democratic vote to do so. They simply failed to do their jobs. So here they are stuck with a continuing resolution bill that requires 60 votes and it is entirely their own fault.
Joseph, sorry, as I’ve tried to explain you are just wrong about reconciliation. Moreover you are wrong about this: “I’ve tried at least three times to patiently explain to him how the budget process works but he still doesn’t get it.” After ~3 decades in the Federal Governmental and two degrees in P. Admin, i have a very good understanding of the steps and the terms used in the Federal Budget Process.
You are partially correct, finally re: what has been passed. On October 26, 2017 the House passed the Senate version of the budget resolution, so a reconciliation step was unneeded. Reconciliation target areas are specified in the Budget Resolution, and are not often used for appropriations. However, the 2018 version of the resolution included reconciliation instructions for two committees: the Finance Committee to develop legislative proposals for $1.5 trillion in “comprehensive tax reform” and the Energy and Natural Resources Committee to find $1 billion in deficit reductions.
As you have noted the 2018 Tax Reform Bill was passed in Dec. We have yet to address the 2nd reconciliation target, the deficit. That will be handled with the legislation raising the debt ceiling.
I’ve cited this reference already: https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation
It says this: “Created by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, reconciliation allows for expedited consideration of certain tax, spending, and debt limit legislation. In the Senate, reconciliation bills aren’t subject to filibuster and the scope of amendments is limited, giving this process real advantages for enacting controversial budget and tax measures….” Reconciliation is a special form of expedited legislation in those three budget areas cited above. It is not used to implement/fund the budget. Appropriations acts do that. The Senate has not passed any 2018 appropriations bills to date. These bills follow the normal Senate rules. Differences between House and Senate versions of specific appropriations are resolved by passing amended version of the bills back and forth until agreement is reached or with “Conference Committees”. It is not uncommon to see the term “reconciliation” in its general sense used for this step.
You have finally researched enough to correct this misstatement: “The Obamacare repeal attempt used the fiscal 2017 budget resolution which was left over because Republicans failed to use it in 2017.” The Obamacare Repeal was in fact a 2017 Act. The 2017 Reconciliation used was not left over. It ended with the fiscal year.
Corev: “Reconciliation is a special form of expedited legislation in those three budget areas cited above. It is not used to implement/fund the budget.”
Covrev, what do you think appropriations are? They are spending. What do you think a budget bill is? It’s a bill that defines the revenue and spending for the budget. That is the entire purpose of the reconciliation bill. To be able to define revenue and spending (appropriations) without requiring a 60 votes in the senate.
Reconciliation bills are most commonly used for Omnibus Budget Acts — appropriation and tax bills.
The Republicans have failed to use their ability to pass appropriations for the budget unimpeded by Democrats. They could have done this without a single Democratic vote.
As for the 2017 reconciliation bill, that was supposed to be passed before the beginning of the 2017 fiscal year in October 2016. Instead, Republicans attempted to use it up until the last day of the 2017 fiscal year in September 2017 in a failed attempt to repeal Obamacare. It should have been passed in 2016, but they had it leftover for the end of 2017, a waste of a reconciliation bill.
Republicans don’t need a single vote to pass an Omnibus Budget bill to cover appropriation. They have majorities in the senate and house and the White House. The fact that the Republicans have failed to use their filibuster-proof and veto-proof majorities to pass a budget and funding bill is gross incompetence.
Joseph, I give up. I know the actual meaning of these terms can be complex, but your misuse and misunderstanding of them is extraordinary. A resolution is Congress’s plan defining spending and taxing goals. It requires appropriations bill(s) to actually complete a budget. It takes a bill to pass appropriations, omnibus and singularly. A resolution is NOT A BIL. It is a plan, and it can not appropriate. Without appropriations there is no budget and the Government shuts down.
For all your griping about Repubs and budgets, the Dem controlled Congress passed a budget resolution only once from 2007 thru 2011. Most appropriations during this period were CRs, many times for the bulk or total FY.
Joseph, you have been wrong in your basic assumption(s) from the beginning.
Joseph, let me explain that a reconciliation bill is just one form of an appropriation. Current usage is for reconciliations bills to be used for special purposes that are defined in the Joint Resolution. Had you read my earlier reference (provided twice) you could have found this:
“How Does Congress Start the Reconciliation Process?
To start the reconciliation process, the House and Senate must agree on a budget resolution that includes “reconciliation directives” for specified committees. Under the Congressional Budget Act, the House and Senate are supposed to adopt a budget resolution each year to establish an overall budget plan and set guidelines for action on spending and revenue. The Senate is not permitted to filibuster consideration of budget resolutions. Budget resolutions don’t go to the President for signature and don’t become law; reconciliation is a procedure for enacting parts of a budget resolution into law.
In developing a budget resolution, Congress must decide whether to include reconciliation directives and, if so, whether to use them to implement all or just some of the proposed changes. ”
Yes, the 2017 and 2018 resolutions included reconciliation directives and had you read and understood the reference (provided twice) you would have seen examples of actual use of reconciliation bills:
“How Often Have Policymakers Used Reconciliation?
Policymakers have enacted 20 budget reconciliation bills since 1980, the first year they employed the process; four other measures were approved by Congress but vetoed by the President.[1] Policymakers used reconciliation to enact major spending cuts during President Reagan’s first year in office, several deficit-reduction packages during the 1980s and 1990s, welfare reform in 1996, and the large Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003. Reconciliation was most recently used in 2010 to help pass the Affordable Care Act and modify the federal student loan program, and then in 2016 in a vetoed attempt to repeal key elements of the Affordable Care Act.”
As you can see, if you had read the reference (now provided twice) you would have learned that although allowed for use with omnibus appropriations, it is seldom used for such. Instead practical use includes a list of very special legislation.
Finally, you have claimed in various forms:
“Republicans don’t need a single vote to pass an Omnibus Budget bill to cover appropriation. They have majorities in the senate and house and the White House. The fact that the Republicans have failed to use their filibuster-proof and veto-proof majorities to pass a budget and funding bill is gross incompetence.” (highlighted to show inconsistent or mis-use of terms) Had you read and understood that ole reference included twice for your edification, you woudl have learned the reconciliation is not used as you propose.
” Reconciliation has not been used to change “discretionary” spending, which is spending controlled through the annual appropriations process.”
Accordingly, without discretionary spending appropriations the Federal Government shuts down and all already completed Congressional budget steps do not result in an actual budget for Agencies to use.
Put succinctly – no appropriations no actual budget.
Joseph, you have been wrong in your basic assumption(s) from the beginning.