This Doesn’t Look Like a China Getting Ready to Capitulate to Trump

From Bloomberg:

Source: Bloomberg, 21 November 2018.

Just sayin’…

Side observation: From my reading of the article, the Chinese approach to “freedom of the financial press” is very Trumpian. Or alternatively, the Trump approach to freedom of the press is very Xi-ian.

120 thoughts on “This Doesn’t Look Like a China Getting Ready to Capitulate to Trump

  1. pgl

    ‘the Securities Association of China said senior economists from brokerages and fund companies had signed a “Chief Economist Self-Discipline Proposal” — essentially a more formalized version of Liu’s admonition. ‘

    Hey if Kudlow was working for the Chinese government, he’d sign this in a heart beat. And then Donald Luskin would get signatures from every hack he knows.

    1. Moses Herzog

      If you really wanna be Mr. Cool in the multicultural dept. you should wish Menzie and his Mom “Happy Chinese New Year” on the appropriate date. It is nearly always around February on the solar calendar, and in 2019 will fall on February 5. I’ll try to remember but I have to confess to forgetting about half the time anymore before it’s already being discussed in the news. Mid-Autumn Festival is a big one too and you give mooncakes on that day (in China your boss will often give them out, at least at government outfits), which are semi-hard to describe but are similar to the very old school item here in American called “fruit cake”, only is much more varying on the fillings. It has like inlaid designs that are appealing to the eye and then some flavor inside. Most Americans probably wouldn’t like it, but if you like old school “fruit cake” then you most likely will enjoy it. I liked them very much but my taste in most things is weird.

      Younger American Chinese may consider them antiquated?? I have no idea.

      1. dilbert dogbert

        We would take the kids to the San Francisco Chinese New Years Parade. What a hoot. Rain, cold or what not we would attend. Take BART from Daily City to downtown and view near the start on Market St. It is a small town event in a big city. I would get to call out insults to the local politicians. We would also take the kids to view the Christmas decorations in the store windows downtown. Cheap entertainment for young families. Memories of wonderful times.

        1. Moses Herzog

          Sounds like a blast. I would also say Chinatowns are very underrated in metro areas. I have to confess it’s been awhile since I went to the one here locally. But the restaurants and grocers choices are really fun. And you can find little places with Buddhist artifacts or jewelry. Sort of like an upperclass antiques shop kind of feel. There is the stereotypes about Chinatowns and some have small shade of truth in them, but I’ll say this (and this is a white male saying this) I would take any Chinatown I have ever been to over any white trash trailer park or backwoods deep south town. Now that last part may not sound like a “ringing endorsement”, but I am just saying by comparison to the worst stereotypes of Chinatowns. Again, on average, I rate Chinatowns as a place to seek out. I tend to like Vietnamese food a little more, they hold back on the oil/grease a little bit better (speaking broad generalities here) than the Chinese.

          Not sure I expressed myself well there—but hopefully my true positive experiences shopping and eating in Chinatowns came across there somewhere. I remember one time my Dad asked a Chinese restaurant we frequented (because I was a timid little wuss in my early teens) if they would turn on the college football game and put it over the speakers (you know many Chinese restaurants have radio or a kind of house music). They pretty much laughed in a very good-natured way and had the game on like 20 seconds later. Now you can be pretty certain they had no interest in that game, but were so kind to put the game on. Imagine that like at a sit down place run by whites. Most would look at you like you were some complete ass who thought you owned the place.

      2. baffling

        can’t say i am a fan of the mooncake. it comes with great fanfare. however, i have consistently been disappointed, even with what are supposed to be considered superior forms of the mooncake. to each their own i guess. more of a fan of the simple red bean paste desserts. or chocolate 🙂

  2. Erik

    pgl pasted: ‘the Securities Association of China said senior economists from brokerages and fund companies had signed a “Chief Economist Self-Discipline Proposal” — essentially a more formalized version of Liu’s admonition. ‘

    Should earn these economists social credit points. See:

    China has started ranking citizens with a creepy ‘social credit’ system — here’s what you can do wrong, and the embarrassing, demeaning ways they can punish you

  3. baffling

    what will be interesting is if this “proposal” simply stops rhetoric and commentary, or if it actually makes people not report real data? if it is the latter, then we have a real problem. in the us, trump has not helped our position by arguing the labor department produces false statistics. while he did not silence the data, he certainly made quite a few rubes believe it was not valid. similar outcome.

  4. pgl

    Bloomberg also ran a story with the headline: China Slaps Down Dolce & Gabbana in Fight Over Offensive Videos

    Money quote:

    ‘The latest controversy erupted on Wednesday over an ad campaign featuring clips of a Chinese model in a red, sequined D&G dress struggling to eat Italian dishes like spaghetti and cannoli pastry with a pair of chopsticks. They featured traditional Chinese music and a suggestive voiceover from a male narrator, who asks the actress trying to eat the cannoli: “Is it too big for you?”’

    Hey I love spaghetti and I have trouble sometimes even when using a fork. This reminds me of the fuss over Monopoly for Millennials:

    Hey kids – lighten up!

  5. PeakTrader

    It’s in both China’s and America’s interest to negotiate an agreement, thanks to Trump’s bargaining leverage, although China will likely cheat on it like it always does.

    Both China and the U.S., along with the global economy, will benefit from lowering trade barriers, and reducing the massive IP theft and coercion.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      Wow, your sycophancy and naivete are truly astounding, PT.

      So you actually think Trump has achieved good trade deals that have lowered trade barriers? The one with South Korea barely changed anything. His New NAFTA is a joke. The only good parts of it were already in the TPP that Trump previously rejected, but which is happening anyway without the US. But beyond that he increased trade barriers, which is what the auto deal with Mexico does, and he has left the steel and aluminum tariffs in place on both Canada and Mexico supposedly put on to get them to negotiate, but now that they have those tariffs remain on, raising trade barriers.

      As for the EU “deal,” well, he did not impose more barriers on autos, but that doe not lower any trade barriers. There might be a resumption of the trade negotaitions Obama was having with that Trump shut down, under a new name of course, but that has not happened yet and may not at all. Oh, the EU did promise to buy more soybeans from the US, helping to offset a bit the damage Trump has done with his trade war with China so far, but they were going to do that anyway given the lower prices US soybeans have been exhibiting since Trump stupidly made his moves.

      So, just exactly where has Trump succeeded in lowering trade barriers, PT? Why is it that you are so stupid that you think this Trump garbage is aclually going to succeed Most observers see it contributing to the global decline of stock markets that has been happening lately.

  6. Moses Herzog

    I agree 100% with Menzie on this (as is true most of the time). But I’d also like to add, that there is a truckload of suffering in China that never hits the papers/TV of domestic China or international news. When you have state owned corporations robbing hundreds of millions (billions??) of dollars from middle class Chinese, and Chinese officials are telling citizens not to convene in groups for protest, you know they have ZERO concern for the Chinese “common man”.

    Chinese citizens are road fodder, like a semi truck hitting an armadillo on the interstate in Arizona. I lived there quite awhile and have seen things, including a man violently taken away by the security bureau for protesting in a downtown area, while everyone looked on. That’s the mild version of some things I witnessed with my own eyes. (By the way “While Everyone Looked On” is a popular roleplaying and cosplay game in China. You just dress in regular Chinese attire while playing though).

    You name the industry, and there is a way the Chinese Government games it, including parents paying grade school teachers directly for preferential seating and treatment in the classroom, and Deans of major Universities getting under the table money and full-paid trips to Hong Kong etc for choosing abysmal and defective textbooks for college students. If the common citizens of China laying in their own refuse is what it takes to say “F— Meiguo tariffs” then that is what the Chinese Politburo will do.

    And to those of you who say “American citizens are treated much the same by their government”, I would answer “Yes, you are correct, but not on the scale/percentage China does.”

  7. Moses Herzog

    Mexico has imposed a 25% tariff on USA milk. Hope dairy farmers who went out and voted for donald “The Great Inheritor” trump are enjoying their reward. I can’t figure out how farmers sometimes have a reputation for being backwards and dumb, can you?? Maybe the guy the dairy farmers love so much can F— them over some more if they give him more time. Apparently all the American dairy farmers want to give their farms over to the large USA banks. Enjoy yourselves guys!!!! And don’t forget to thank donald trump when you default on your loans and lose your land. You’re a sharp group dairy farmers!!!! Believe me!!! You are a very sharp group American dairy farmers!!! Believe me!!!

      1. Moses Herzog

        Let’s see what % of YOUR industry is composed of exports to Mexico, then we’ll tell you you’re f*cked out of a job, along with maybe having your house, land, and equipment repossessed because you defaulted on payments and we’ll see how you like it. It’s not about the % dear “Irish boy”. In fact, the blog and my comments have discussed that before.

        We’re all very impressed you can read a Census Bureau page in light of the fact you’ve already shown you can’t read a 10K or 10Q properly.

        1. pgl

          Some decaf. Or maybe anger management sessions are in order. I was only asking a question.

          And yes I can read a 10-K. Can you?

    1. dilbert dogbert

      A very small percentage of murikan farmers live off farm income. Usually all of the other family members have a job in town. Corporate farmers know to donate to the

  8. Kien

    It would be bad to capitulate to bullying. The whole world would all be better off if we do not give in to bullies. Don’t capitulate!

    1. PeakTrader

      Yes, the U.S. shouldn’t capitulate to communist Chinese aggression.

      The economic stealing and cheating need to stop, and international law needs to be followed.

      1. baffling

        considering all the government handouts boeing is given for their “defense” work, peakloser, do you continue to believe this state sponsored enterprise competes fairly in the world market for commercial aviation? or do you only support american state sponsored enterprises?

        1. pgl

          Boeing is heavily subsidized by those EXIM free loan guarantees. We taxpayers pay for this and Boeing shareholders clean house. I never heard Peaky complain about this. Then again this failed banker likely does not even know what a loan guarantee even is.

      2. Barkley Rosser

        More stupidly hypocritical nonsense from you, PT.

        Trump has been massively breaking international law all over the place and openly expressing contempt for it. See withdrawal from Iran nuclear deal and reimposition of sanctions while Iran is in compliance, withdrawal from the Paris climate accord, impending withdrawal from the INF treaty, and in fact many of his tariffs that he has been imposing.

        You are seriously pathetic. Have you been to one of his rallies and chanted “Lock her up!” Now applies to his corrupt daughter.

        1. PeakTrader

          Barkley, I don’t care about your hatred and brainwashing.

          When you’re ready to have a real conversation, let me know.

          1. pgl

            You do this a lot. When someone calls you out on your BS rather than acknowledge their point – you act like some spoiled brat 2 year old. I’d ask you to grow up but we know that is a bar too high for you.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            You deny that Trump has been violating international law? Heck, PT, this is part of why he cannot organize a group of nations to go together to complain to China: all of our potential partners in doing so view him as violating trade rules more than China is. He has let China get away with posing as the defender of international law and order while he is the rogue criminal.

            Remember that when he addressed nearly 100 national leaders at the UN General Assembly in September, they openly laughed at him when he started spouting his usual baloney. You are out of touch with reality, PT. He is held in utter contempt by the vast majority of world leadrs as well as their populations, a dramatically sharp contrast with the situation under Obama.

            You need to get more in touch with reality, PT.

  9. PeakTrader

    Trump just wants a fair press.

    China’s leaders created an extremely unfair press in their favor.

    There’s no comparison.

    1. pgl

      Trump is a great negotiator who never cheats? He wants a fair press? What else should we expect from our 1984 novel?

      Next thing we will hear is that you post accurate data! Thanks for the chuckle!

    2. Barkley Rosser

      Sure, PT, ban any uppity reporter while falsely accusing them of assaulting an intern trying to take the mic away from them.

      Better yet, let the Saudis murder and dismember annoying members of the US press and praise them after they do it.

      Oh, and get drooling mobs at your rallies to chant about how the press is the “Enemy of the People.”

      Yeah, your guy Trump really loves the free press.

  10. PeakTrader

    Of course, in the Dan Rather age, the press was very subtle and clever in its biased reporting.

    Now, it’s all out in the open.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Is this the journalism that’s “out in the open” PeakIgnorance is talking about??

      This guy, A.C. Thompson, is one of the best video journalists I have EVER watched. The is MUST see televsion. I believe you can find the 2nd half of the show (2 parts about 50 minutes long, episodes 16 & 17) inside this link. BOTH episodes are free online now if I linked the incorrect one. It is extremely disturbing, and donald trump is feeding these people diesel fuel for their fire:

      Maybe PeakIgnorance wants a membership card sent to him by James Mason?? Who knows?? If you go to the roughly 44:30 mark (a little after actually) you can see the sicko I am referring to. I’m going to read Kathleen Belew’s book, and hopefully some people will purchase it to encourage this type of research and journalism. Again, the James Mason’s of the world are who donald trump is feeding diesel fuel to at this time. This is why it’s amazingly sad and distressing to see the Steve Mnuchin’s and Gary Cohn’s standing together with donald trump, as donald trump stokes these flames.

      1. baffling

        i am sure peakloser thinks nixon was a great man who did nothing wrong either. it was all a liberal conspiracy that brought him down.

        1. pgl

          And the way Nixon undermined the efforts of the LBJ White House in getting a 1968 peace deal with North Vietnam was not treason as “we won” (ala KellyAnne Conway). Never mind the millions of deaths including those of brave US soldiers. It is all about having a Republican White House. Screw the rest of us!

  11. pgl

    Josh Marshall posts 3 clips where he says Trump was being a “terrible President”:

    OK all three were where Trump called the troops overseas and made a total jacka$$ out of himself. #1 is Trump equating people from Central America with Al Qaeda. #2 is where one admiral contradicting Trump on the trade issue. #3 is one where Trump thinks all aircraft carriers do better on steam. Seriously? Trump is one stupid man.

    But a silver lining. Maybe our generals and admirals will one day realize that the Commander in Chief needs to replaced by a military coup!

    1. 2slugbaits

      pgl Maybe our generals and admirals will one day realize that the Commander in Chief needs to replaced by a military coup!

      That might be more than just a flippant comment. I recall one retired 4-star relating how many of his active duty colleagues were agonizing over what they would do if Trump issued an illegal order. I suspect that’s one reason why Kelly and Mattis have tried to blunt any talk about using lethal force at the border and posse comitatus. We shouldn’t forget that the military agreed to disobey any order coming from Nixon back when he was drunk and in his final days. And during the Cuban Missile Crisis the Joint Chiefs refused to allow the SECDEF into the Pentagon’s operations center. It may not be “Seven Days in May” stuff, but if you’re a high ranking officer you have to worry about civilians issuing illegal orders. The good news is that the DoD budget and execution process is so arcane and convoluted that it’s never a problem finding a financial excuse for not doing something and foot dragging.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        The more serious illegal order they might have to face choosing to disobey is if Trump attempts to impose martial law by declaring a state of national emergency. I certainly hope we do not face this, but given his increasing desperation and disconnect from reality as well as love of authoritarianism, it cannot be ruled out unfortunately.

        If he does it, watch Peak Trader defend it.

  12. Erik

    PeakTrader wrote: “Trump just wants a fair press.”

    Thanks for the chuckle.

    Trump has no integrity and by extension his supporters and apologists have no integrity. PT, I suspect that you have absolutely no idea how much Trump has inflicted serious damage on the American brand.

    1. PeakTrader

      Erik, you’re very naive.

      You believe the “American Brand” was better under other politicians, just because they don’t say what they do?

      Don’t make me laugh. LOL

      1. noneconomist

        You need one of those new Trump branded KSAG caps: “ Keep Saudi Arabia Great” They’re green with plenty of red splattered all over.

        1. PeakTrader

          Noneconomist, the politicians you voted for kept Saudi Arabia great too.

          So, get one of those hats for yourself.

          1. noneconomist

            For fans of classic TV, PT, you’re in Ted Baxter mode, I.e. “Same to you fella!” Definitely a piercing retort.

          2. noneconomist

            BTW, are you now equating Trump with “the politicians I voted for”? Those liberals, and socialist evildoers and that woman you want to lock up? Really?

      2. baffling

        no, i believe the “American Brand” was better under other presidents, because they stood for integrity and honor. our current used car salesman president stands for neither. perhaps he could visit a military cemetery on veterans day, or perhaps visit his troops in a conflict zone? my understanding is the orange one is afraid of conflict zones. not a good quality for commander in chief. but go ahead peakloser, continue to talk about the strength of his “American Brand”.

      3. Barkley Rosser

        Go check the polls, you idiot, PT. The standing of the US has massively fallen all over the world. There are only a handful of nations where it has risen, and only by small amounts in those nations. We are talking Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and I think UAE, maybe also Bahrain and Egypt. Pretty much everywhere else the declines have been massive, all the way from positive 80+% down to the teens or even single digits in more countries than where it has gone up.

        No, you should not make such a silly claim. Instead you should follow your fearless leader and just claim that it does not matter what the rest of the world thinks of us because, hey America First!!!!!!!!!!!

        1. PeakTrader

          Barkley, so, the people, who vote for socialism, big governments, lap up the negative mainstream media, and Trump haters don’t think highly of Trump?

          You believe polls tell you what’s right and wrong, and you call me an idiot!

          1. pgl

            Baby boy on another temper tantrum. WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!

            Just stop it – for the sake of your poor mother.

          2. Barkley Rosser


            Polls can be inaccurate, but usually by relatively small amounts, such as those forecasting Hillary would beat Trump in 2016. They were only slightly off, but it was close enough that it made the difference in the outcome. Of course I take polls in the sorts of authoritatrian countries that Trump admires with large grains of salt, especially when they are about the leaders of those countries. But some of the more dramatic declines in US standing have occurred in democratic nations with not much reason to believe the polls are skewed, with this including those dropping from the 80s in support to the the teens and lower.

            And it is not all “socialist” nations either. It includes nations that do better on freedom indexes than does the US such as New Zealand and Ireland. Really, PT, check it out. It is shocking and shameful what has happened. Except for Israel, all the nations where the standing of the US has risen have authoritatian regimes: Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Egypt. That is it. Deal with the hard reality., PT.

  13. pgl

    The Report on Climate Change that the White House hopes you do not notice:

    Earth’s climate is now changing faster than at any point in the history of modern civilization, primarily as a result of human activities. The impacts of global climate change are already being felt in the United States and are projected to intensify in the future—but the severity of future impacts will depend largely on actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the changes that will occur. Americans increasingly recognize the risks climate change poses to their everyday lives and livelihoods and are beginning to respond (Figure 1.1). Water managers in the Colorado River Basin have mobilized users to conserve water in response to ongoing drought intensified by higher temperatures, and an extension program in Nebraska is helping ranchers reduce drought and heat risks to their operations. The state of Hawaii is developing management options to promote coral reef recovery from widespread bleaching events caused by warmer waters that threaten tourism, fisheries, and coastal protection from wind and waves. To address higher risks of flooding from heavy rainfall, local governments in southern Louisiana are pooling hazard reduction funds, and cities and states in the Northeast are investing in more resilient water, energy, and transportation infrastructure. In Alaska, a tribal health organization is developing adaptation strategies to address physical and mental health challenges driven by climate change and other environmental changes. As Midwestern farmers adopt new management strategies to reduce erosion and nutrient losses caused by heavier rains, forest managers in the Northwest are developing adaptation strategies in response to wildfire increases that affect human health, water resources, timber production, fish and wildlife, and recreation. After extensive hurricane damage fueled in part by a warmer atmosphere and warmer, higher seas, communities in Texas are considering ways to rebuild more resilient infrastructure. In the U.S. Caribbean, governments are developing new frameworks for storm recovery based on lessons learned from the 2017 hurricane season.

    Climate-related risks will continue to grow without additional action. Decisions made today determine risk exposure for current and future generations and will either broaden or limit options to reduce the negative consequences of climate change. While Americans are responding in ways that can bolster resilience and improve livelihoods, neither global efforts to mitigate the causes of climate change nor regional efforts to adapt to the impacts currently approach the scales needed to avoid substantial damages to the U.S. economy, environment, and human health and well-being over the coming decades.

    1. sammy


      “Earth’s climate is now changing faster than at any point in the history of modern civilization, primarily as a result of human activities.”

      It will be interesting to see how this “primarily as a result of human activities” holds up as we appear to be entering a Solar Minimum. Even though I do not think you are right that CO2 drives climate, I hope you are right, because Ice Ages are a bitch.

      1. baffling

        if you are increasing global temperatures while entering a solar minimum, as you claim, do you not see the problem? what do you think will happen when we leave the minimum?

      2. Anonymous

        Earth to Sammy – I did not write this report. Do you know who did? A group of people a LOT smarter than you.

  14. Moses Herzog

    More of the journalism that PeakIgnorance is trying to “save” us all from. If only all the great journalists had the hot MILF legs that PeakIgnorance gets from FOX anchors, then maybe Peak would actually know what the F— is going on in his own home country. Poor guy.

    It’s rumored that Megyn Kelly has a lot of free time now. Maybe Megyn can start her own video podcast titled “My Uncrossed Legs” with a specially placed studio camera and PeakIgnorance can finally get what he’s been looking for in journalism all these many years.

    1. pgl

      “There are many things we don’t know about Giuliani’s trips. We don’t know whether he’s being paid, and if so by whom. Giuliani declined to answer our questions.
      One thing we do know is that a company called TriGlobal Strategic Ventures claims credit for organizing the trips. Abramyan is on TriGlobal’s board, as is a former Russian government minister.”

      We do know that RUDY claims he is worth $60 million. So yea he is being paid – a lot. Make America Corrupt Again!

  15. Moses Herzog

    Not sure what to make of this, other than, if the USA follows through on this, we are getting into pretty nasty territory.

    This USA play on Huawei is kind of like one of your power forwards throwing a vicious screen:

    In the hilarity department, Sensitive Stevie Mnuchin has become donald trump’s latest הילד המכה

    1. baffling

      will be happy to see mnuchin be another of a long list of discarded trump fools. and i hope he has a limited career post trump-will be well deserved.

    2. pgl

      Huawei competes against Apple in the same way Samsung’s Galaxy competes with the iPhone. Anything this White House can do to make sure Apple can rip us off for smart phones!

      I see PeakPathetic is harping his usual China steals our IP. Yes – the forces of monopoly power to benefit the rich at the expense of the rest of us has taken over this corrupt White House.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ pgl
        Huawei doesn’t compete with Apple by any stretch of the imagination. Huawei’s major strength is telecommunications equipment. Which means Huawei’s major competitors would be more along the lines of Finland’s Nokia and Sweden’s Ericsson. This is actually a legitimate concern, similar to ZTE.

        Nobody has a problem with you picking off bad PeakIgnorance comments. Just try to make them factual and not make them out of left field, because that doesn’t help ANYONE.

        1. pgl

          I thought I saw a cell phone by Huawei at Best Buy – the Mate 10 Pro 4G LTE with 128GB Memory Cell Phone

          Moses – pardon my French but STFU. You are acting like some spoiled brat known it all but in truth you have become one rude idiot.

          I’ve tried to be nice to you before but no more bucko. Lord – the stupidity here is getting dreadful.

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ pgl
            WOW, a Best Buy shopping link!!!! That AND Barkley Jr’s Quora links!!! You and Barkley Jr. are on an intellectual win streak here. I have to give it to you. Throw in a Walmart shopping link and you’ve got a research paper in the making there.

        2. Benlu

          Huawei has achieved top market share in telecom manufacturing segment since few years back. Smartphone segment was started some 5 years ago I think and Huawei smartphone market share has moved up to number 2 spot, overtaking apple’s Iphone in Q2 this year. Huawei also designes and uses its own Kirin series chips since P 10 and mate 10(current series P20 and Mate 20), instead of Qualcomm’s.

          Telecommunication equipment companies ranked by overall revenue in 2017 (in billion U.S. dollars)*

          Smartphone Rankings Shaken Up Once Again as Huawei Surpasses Apple, Moving into Second Position While Overall Market Declined 1.8% in Q2 2018, According to IDC

          1. Moses Herzog

            The problem with pgl’s argument is, the basis of this move U.S. intelligence/security officials are making in these negotiations has everything to do with Chinese-made telecommunications equipment, and nearly nothing to do with mobile phones. If it helps you to conceptualize it, you can also think of it as telecommunications “infrastructure”. Which has more to do with 5G networks and the hardware of cellular towers. This is the major security threat, which has much less to do with mobile phones. Which is why it’s utterly asinine to think this has anything to do with Apple or mobile phones. Huawei has 22% of the market, Nokia has 13%, Ericsson has 11%, and ZTE has 10%. Now, ZTE is in 4th place in this race over telecommunications infrastructure—slowly moving over to 5G which is much more susceptible to internet attacks. So we can put the challenge to pgl to do the math on that, and see where that would put Apple in that big race. All of that was stated in the original WSJ article I linked, but apparently market share is a tough concept to grasp for some “economists”.

            But pgl does have a very very very rhetorically powerful link to a Best Buy shopping link. So, you know, there’s that. And maybe “Quora”, Barkley Jr’s favorite website, has something to say about it. Or maybe all of pgl’s friends in NYC and Barkley Jr.use Huawei phones?? I really have no idea

          2. Benlu

            I would think banning Huawei and ZTE in US for security reasons is just a straw man.
            Regarding mobile networks, there are many ways to ensure national security.

            Most countries normally have 3 to 6 separate Telecommunication networks. For security reasons, respective national telecommunications authorities may mandate that at least two Telecommunication vendors are selected to supply the equipments in the country(this is to hedge against the risk of relying on single equipment vendor who may go bankrupt or needs to be banned in future by a president like Mr. Trump).

            For security considerations, a country may build a dedicated secured network solely for government, military, Police, FBI, CIA, Home Security,… by contracting a vetted telecom equipment supplier.

            National core transmission networks infrastructure equipments(like routers, fibre optics, multiplexers, transmission switches..) which are separate from mobile networks, could be provided by trusted vendors. The core transmission networks which are used for linking up all the base stations, base stations controllers, mobile switching centres,… of different vendors, are to be provided by trusted vendors(may be different from mobile network vendors). The core transmission networks could be used to introduce another layer of defence from non authorise access to mobile networks.

            At software levels, many security features could also be introduced at selected layers and gateways.

        3. baffling

          actually moses, you are not correct about huawei. they are a growing competitor in the smartphone area.

          you are correct that they are a major telecom equipment producer, and their control of 5g should be concerning going forward. but if apple is ignoring their smartphone business, apple will have trouble in the future. need to at least keep an eye on their smartphones, they are going upscale. this is a company that has integrated the entire telecom process from phone to data transmission.

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ baffling

            SEE MY COMMENT ABOVE which was made very clear in my first comment. It is pgl who turned this into a mobile phone/Apple sh*t show, which if anyone can read it was never about to begin with. Would you like to copy/paste the part where I claim Huawei doesn’t compete the smartphone business?? Beings that I saw them used during my time living in China over multiple years, and that was some years back, it’s “difficult” for me to imagine I typed that.

          2. baffling

            moses, i was simply responding to your comment
            “Huawei doesn’t compete with Apple by any stretch of the imagination. Huawei’s major strength is telecommunications equipment. ”
            you were correct about 5g, but not the smartphones, in your comment.

          3. Moses Herzog

            @ baffling
            I give up with you two morons. OK, “this is about America trying to stop China from selling smart phones in Europe”. Is that what this argument was about??? You two F-ing idiots who can’t read a 3 page WSJ article happy now?!?!?!?! Geezus F-ing Christ.

          4. baffling

            moses, if you do not want me to respond to YOUR comment
            “Huawei doesn’t compete with Apple by any stretch of the imagination. Huawei’s major strength is telecommunications equipment. ”
            then don’t write it. if you want to be angry, be angry at yourself for writing something that is not correct. you may have meant something else, but this is what YOU wrote. thankfully, i am not privy to your inner thoughts, so i cannot read your mind here. i can only respond to what YOU write. if you don’t like the response, don’t write the comment in the first place.

  16. Zi Zi

    He was a populist and died in his 2nd presidency.

    By the way, you must be blogging a lot during his terms “so much winning” and stuff lol

    1. pgl

      Zi Zi flunks history. FDR was elected President four times – not twice. BTW – we see you ducked the question.

  17. PeakTrader

    Democrats know China began an economic war against the U.S. before Trump.

    Mark Warner (D-VA):

    “The reciprocal trading system that has existed between the U.S. and China can endure only on the basis of mutual respect for the rule of law, including fair trials and the enforcement of property rights. The Chinese government’s complicity in intellectual property theft hurts American manufacturers, workers, and consumers, and undermines the ability of U.S. businesses to operate in China. The Administration has powerful, targeted tools at its disposal to hold bad actors accountable for theft of U.S. companies’ IP and trade secrets, even when the theft takes place abroad. I applaud the Department of Justice for using one of those tools today to hold China accountable, and encourage the Administration to take additional steps to crack down on economic espionage by Chinese businesses and the Chinese government.”

    1. pgl

      Do you know what before Trump even means? Did you look at the date of your latest Google link? Published Friday, Nov. 2, 2018, 12:02 am.

      Earth to Peaky – we are almost 2 years into the Trump Administration so you “before” is stupid even for you. BTW – I suspect Senator Warner would have a more intelligent plan of action that these stupid Trump trade wars. This is the point even if you are too stooopid to get it!

    2. baffling

      peakloser, you seem to be in denial of many things. i don’t think anybody on this blog wants china to continue to steal IP. i think we are all in agreement that it should be addressed. we had that possibility with the tpp, but captain orange hair withdrew. instead, he would rather let american farmers get pummeled to address an issue in technology IP. it is this absurd approach by trump that most people are against. it is inefficient and creating collateral damage unnecessarily. IP theft has increased under trump compared to obama, so apparently his approach is not winning. maybe its time to reconsider our approach.

    1. Barkley Rosser


      Let me agree with you that China stealing US intellectual property is not a good thing. However, the question is whether Trump’s policies have a better chance of doing anything about this than what earlier presidents have done. After all, in case you are unaware of the fact, every president over the last 20 years or so has complained to China about this matter, with China periodically making promises not to do it anymore.

      So what has Trump done? Well, besides imposing tariffs, he has pulled the US out of a major economic organization that does not contain China and could have been used to mount an internationally coordinated effort to get China to behave better than just the go-it-alone policy Trump is so incompetently engaging in. I am talking about the TPP, whose subtle purpose that Obama had in mind was precisely to show nations in East Asia that we were supporting them against China. But, as we know Trump has been obsessed with undoing any and every thing that Obama did, we had to leave. We might also have gotten the cooperation of the EU in such an effort, but, of course Trump has completely alienated them with his trade and other policies.

      Yes, Clinton said she would have pulled out of the TPP, and maybe she would have, although maybe she would have gotten smart and made that a campaign promise not worth keeping. Anyway, I do not see Trump’s go-it-alone tariffs likely to improve things on this front. Chiina has promised to cllean up its act before but it has not. Why should it change even if it cuts some deal with Trump that includes it supposedly doing so?

      Again, PT, you are just pathetically naive, a sucker for any garbage propaganda the Trump team throws up.

      1. PeakTrader

        Many Democrat politicians were against the TPP, along with Paul Krugman.

        Prior Administrations have been ineffective dealing with China’s overproduction of steel and aluminum, exporting through third countries, and the massive theft of IP.

        The U.S. steel and aluminum industries shrunk dramatically and IP theft continues on a huge scale. Those are facts.

        Many Democrats support Trump’s bold actions, including Navarro. China brought a trade war to itself.

        1. 2slugbaits

          PeakTrader Instead of retreating into your customary habit of just repeating and doubling down without argument or rationale the very thing that’s in question, how about making an actual reasoned argument as Barkley did? Just repeating something umpteen times doesn’t make it true. Whether prior administrations were ineffective or not dealing in with Chinese IP theft is irrelevant to whether or not Trump’s tariffs are an effective way to deal with the problem. Why should anyone care whether many Democratic politician opposed TPP or not? This is just a red herring. Maybe it’s because you take as gospel anything pronounced by Trump, so you naturally assume the rest of us are equally deferential to Democratic political leaders. How is any of that relevant to the economics of TPP? You seem unable to stay focused on a single point. Your posts are just one spasm followed by another followed by another. Despite dozens of opportunities you have never presented any coherent argument for tariffs being an effective way to deal with Chinese IP theft.

          And while you’re at it, you might want to rethink that asinine argument by Keith Alexander. The guy has no economics training whatsoever, so why would you take him seriously? And try spending about two seconds thinking through an obvious problem with his claim. Hint: foregone sales by a US based company is not the same thing as a net loss to the US economy. It’s the same kind of intellectual and economic confusion I’d expect to hear from one of those marketing types masquerading as a local “economic development” consultant.

          BTW, how’s that list of the last ten books you’ve read coming along? Stuck on number two?

          1. PeakTrader

            2slugbaits, your statement is illogical.

            I corrected Barkley’s false assumptions, like the ratification of the TPP was a done deal.

            You believe China competing by stealing IP is not a loss for the U.S.?

          2. PeakTrader

            Moreover, bipartisan reports support Keith Alexander.

            Why wouldn’t you take him seriously?

            Trump has imposed a massive cost on China’s massive IP theft, unlike prior Administrations.

            And, you don’t even respond to my statements. You just make things up and then argue with what you made up!

          3. 2slugbaits

            PeakTrader I don’t recall Barkley saying TPP was a done deal, so your “correction” is illogical in itself. As to the Chinese stealing IP, sometimes it’s a loss to the US and sometimes it isn’t. You claim (or at least pretend) to have studied economics, so you should be able to figure out when IP theft is and isn’t a loss.

            Who cares whether or not Keith Alexander received bipartisan support? His bipartisan support was for his position in intelligence, not economics.

            Trump has imposed massive costs, but it’s hard to see how he has gained any massive gains to offset those costs. There is no evidence that Trump’s tariffs are doing anything about the problem of Chinese IP theft. All of the “evidence” that you and Bruce Hall have posted seems to suggest that the problem is getting worse, not better. Maybe that’s your idea of winning.

            And, you don’t even respond to my statements. You just make things up and then argue with what you made up!

            Ever hear of the something that psychologists call “projection”? How very Trumpian of you. Speaking of not responding, how’s that list of readings coming along?

        2. pgl

          “Many Democrat politicians were against the TPP, along with Paul Krugman.”

          Many Democrats are for real competition. Good to know you think we should endorse more monopoly power!

        3. Barkley Rosser

          Actually, PT, have you ever disagreed with a policy or even anything that Trump has said or supported here? I and I think most others arguing with you nave disagreed with past Dem leaders. I think Obama should not have dumped the public option for ACA in an effort to please Sen. Grassley, who did not support it anyway despite O’s kowtowing to him. I think he should not have been so supportive of fiscal austerity in 2011, although given how much Trump is blowing up the budget deficit maybe it is just as well he did. Also, he should never have made that dumb red line remark about Syria, and even he admitted that the Libyan situation was poorly handled, although it must be admitted it is not clear what would have been the best policy there.

          So, is there anything Trump does or says that you disagree with? You accused me of being “brainwashed,” but I am willing to say that some parts of his tax package improved the system, even as other parts made it worse. Prove to us that you are not brainwashed. Tell us about something, anything, where you think he messed up. Maybe about when he criticized John McCain for having been a POW? Maybe when he said “grab them by the pussy”? Anything? Or is just everything he says and does divinely inspired and beyond criticism?

          1. PeakTrader

            Barkley, there are lots of things I disagree with Trump.

            I think, it was a mistake to promise a 10% tax cut before the election, he should compromise more with the Democrats, he says, tweets, and responds too much, including about minor comments, etc..

            However, he’s treated very unfairly by the mainstream media and by many extremists on this blog.

          2. Menzie Chinn Post author

            PeakTrader: But ok on child separations at the border, DACA ending, deployment of troops to the border, ending TPP, Section 232 on Canada, EU, tax cuts for the rich, insulting our military heroes and gold star families…

          3. Barkley Rosser

            OK, PT, you did not like his promising a 10% tax cut up front (because of the deficit?) and do not like some of his tweets. Fair enough, although Menzie provides some serious matters that you might also consider.

            Let me respondd on the matter of steel and aluminum tariffs, which you seem to think are just great. So it certainly is true that these help the domestic steel and aluminum industries by and large, although not ALCOA, the US’s largest aluminum company, which has a lot of production abroad and international supply chains. But it also helps the iron ore and metallurgicl coal industries, with some of these located in politically important states for Trump, such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. One of the three House seats to flip from GOP to Dem is in northeastern Minnesota, location of the the Mesabi range and the most iron ore in the US, helped a lot economically by these tariffs.

            But then these tariffs hurt industries that use steel and aluminum, suh as autos, contruction, appliances, and beverages, among others, with autos in particular also located in some of those politically sensitive states, notably Michigan and Ohio. Indeed, most estimates suggest the job losses in those industries will exceed the job gains in the steel and aluminum industries, so there is not much really all that good in the end about those tariffs.

            Furthermore, while maybe they will push China to making a deal, they remain in place on both Mexico and Canada even after they cut the new NAFTA deal. What on earth is the justification for this?

            Finally indeed lots of Dem politicians have and do support protectionism, especially for import-competing industries in their states. But nearly zero professional economists do, except for special cases like infant industry tariffs, not relevant for the US. Yes, there is Peter Navarro, but he has gone to work for Trump and he has not published an article in a referred econ journal in more than 20 years, and some of his recent books have bordered on the insane, but they are what brought him to Trump’s attention. In any case, even you spout the line that Kudlow and some others push that all this is going to bring about freer trade, but so far, as I already pointed out, it is not doing so. The deals with EU and Korea and Mexico and Canada do not show any increase in free trade, if anything a decrease. So, getting back to Menzie’s original post, there is not much reason to believe we are going to see much of an improvement with China out of all of Trump’s largely illegal tariffs.

          4. PeakTrader

            Menzie Chinn, many of those children were separated from their parents before leaving Central America. We shouldn’t encourage that. Trump proposed a DACA deal, but the Democrat leadership rejected it. We need to secure the Southern border and protect what’s left of our steel and aluminum industries. The EU has a lot more problems that aren’t getting solved. A gold star family shouldn’t be used for political attacks, and I disagree with Trump insulting McCain on his war service.

          5. PeakTrader

            And, Menzie Chinn, I stated before, I’m for raising taxes on the rich, if we get rid of the earned income tax credit and its massive fraud. And, we need to promote work by raising the minimum wage and restructuring entitlements, which will allow more government assistance for those who really can’t work. Otherwise, entitlement spending will continue to crowd out other government spending and economic growth. And, you don’t want high unemployment or underemployment, like in Western Europe.

          6. baffling

            “I’m for raising taxes on the rich, if we get rid of the earned income tax credit and its massive fraud.”
            regarding the eitc, this is simply false. and it pails in comparison to the amount of money the wealthy can save by gaming the tax system, which is rife with exceptions carved out exclusively for the wealthy. what you advocate for, peak loser, in claiming to approve taxes on the rich if the poor are punished, is simply class warfare. its fascinating how you blame the left for class warfare, and you provide a blatant example of it yourself. as 2lugs has pointed out recently, you have a habit of “projecting” in a way that is truly baffling. why are you such a miserable old loser peak?

          7. Barkley Rosser


            You continue to say “we need to protect our shrinking steel and aluminum industries,” with it in fact not the case that steel had been recently shrinking. Are you simply unaware of the negative impact of this on other industries? Today it was announced that GM is closing its Lordstown, Ohio plant, losing 4500 jobs, with another 10,000 or so disappearing elsewhere. While the steel tariffs are not the only reason for this, they have made the situation of GM and all other US authomakers worse. I reported here the forecast that the steel and aluminum tarifa would cost more jobs than they would gain. Is there something special about the jobs in those sectors that makes them more worthy of protecting than those in the auto and other industries that get lost thanks to this protection you are so enamored of?

          8. Barkley Rosser

            So, PT, now that GM is laying off 15,000 workers, including a bunch in Ohio, with steel tariffs playing a role, are you still keen on protecting “what is left” of our steel and aluminum industries? They were not doing all that badly before the tariffs, in fact, and most estimates, as I already pointed out, suggest greater job losses from the steel-using industries, such as autos, than job gains for the protected industries. Now we are seeing the chickens coming home to roost on that one.

  18. joseph

    PeakTrader: “In a New York Times op-ed last year, Alexander and Dennis Blair, a former Director of National Intelligence, said such theft costs the U.S. $600 billion per year.

    So I look Peak’s NYT reference. It doesn’t say “costs the U.S. $600 billion”. It says “costs up to $600 billion.”

    So then I go to Keith Alexander’s source paper and it says “$180 to $540 billion.”

    So this is how it goes. You start with a number that could be a low as $180 billion. But could be $540 billion. So Alexander says “up to $600 billion”. And finally Peaky says its definitively “$600 billion.”

    It’s also worth noting that Keith Alexander makes his living running a cybersecurity consulting company so he may have a financial motive for exaggerating the amount of IP losses to drum up business.

    1. pgl

      Peaky is in charge of the Trump accounting for how much military stuff we sell to the Saudis. I think the accounting is now up to $400 billion per year. Of course the official statistics shows it to be less than $10 billion. No wonder everyone in the Trump swamp are getting so rich so fast with all that missing money!

  19. pgl

    “the greatest transfer of wealth in history”????

    Even this inflated estimate pales in comparison to the amount of Social Security benefits your team wants to rip off in order to pay for tax cuts for the rich.

    Who knew Peaky mastered Dooh Nibor economics?!

  20. pgl

    A good story on the woes of the U.S. dairy sector from the Trump trade wars:

    “Retaliatory tariffs by China and Mexico could lower dairy exports by $2.7 billion and depress dairy farmers’ revenues by $16.6 billion over the next several years unless they are rolled back. Moreover, U.S. economic output tied to the dairy industry would fall by more than $8 billion and 8,200 U.S. jobs would be imperiled through 2023.”

    BTW I never doubted Moses story that U.S. dairy farmers were taking a hit. So I might thank him for bringing this up. But for some reason he has decided to launch unsolicited personal attacks on me that have zero basis.

    Moses – try washing your mouth out with soap like your mother told you to do so.

  21. Dwight L. Cramer

    I can’t remember if FDR was a ‘rich’ Roosevelt, or one of the others. No matter, he was defined by his social class and family more than his personal wealth. If you think otherwise, you’re suffering a failure of historical imagination. The Roosevelts were members of the Knickerbocker aristocracy in the Gilded Age, and as such occupied a position similar to that of today’s Rockefellers or duPonts in the current, cyber Gilded Age.

    As for the original post, without regard for the intervening mudslinging, why would China be on the cusp of surrender in the current trade war? My sense is that, being perceived as having started the current conflict with its tariffs, the United States has to ‘win’ to avoid ‘losing’ (i.e., it must obtain results vindicating its use of unilateral power) while China merely has to avoid ‘losing’ to ‘win’ (i.e. demonstrate that it can absorb whatever the USA dishes out, without intolerable suffering).

    The assymetry does not bode well for the Trump regime’s approach, and in the aftermath I’m afraid my country is going to see a general erosion of its international power and influence, particularly with allies and clients, in economic affairs. Oh well. Sic transit gloria. . . .

    1. pgl

      It seems Teddy was richer. But in inflation adjusted terms, poor Franklin was likely worth $700 million in 2017$. Not bad.

      1. noneconomist

        But, but, but.. the .Trump team is fighting IP theft by making it more difficult for American growers to sell soybeans, almonds, and walnuts–and lots more– to China. No gain. Plenty of pain.

        1. PeakTrader

          Noneconomist, raise the white flag and let the stealing, coercing, and cheating go on.

          Undermine Trump, not the communist Chinese aggressors.

          1. Benlu

            I am sure China could address the list of specific IP thefts item by item if US could come out with one.

          2. noneconomist

            Brave talk from the farm “chicken hawk” who has nothing to lose personally but who feels it’s his patriotic duty to smear those whose livelihoods are at stake.
            Wave the white flag? Sure, while you beat your chest and do your best Tarzan yell to show your love of country. While risking nothing.

  22. 2slugbaits

    PeakTrader And, you don’t want high unemployment or underemployment, like in Western Europe.

    Here’s a little research topic for you that goes beyond a mad google search for some Forbes article. How about going to the OECD database and comparing the labor force participation rates for prime working age adults (25-54 years old). What is the US participation rate? What is Germany’s participation rate? Or compared to France? Or compared to the Netherlands? Get the idea?

  23. baffling

    trump has had a great impact on the auto industry. gm jus announced they will cut 14,000 jobs in north america, mostly in the usa:
    if this is winning, i hate to see what losing looks like. but losers such as corev, bruce and peakloser continue to tout trumps magical touch. even when our industrial base shrinks directly due to trump policies. amazing.

  24. pgl

    In defense of the Trump Administration separating children from their parents at the border, PeakTrader pulls a Trump (aka a big fat lie):

    “many of those children were separated from their parents before leaving Central America.”

    Who told you this big fat lie Peaky? The same lying racist that called the tear gas “safe”?

  25. pgl

    November 25, 2018 at 3:33 pm
    I would think banning Huawei and ZTE in US for security reasons is just a straw man.
    Regarding mobile networks, there are many ways to ensure national security.”

    An excellent point which of course Moses is just ignoring. Of course he wanted to ignore the fact that
    Apple is getting some much needed competition in the smart phone sector. Apple just hates competition.

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