Why Kobach Lost

This graph of Kansas employment during the Brownback years is suggestive.


Figure 1: Kansas nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue) and civilian employment (pink), in thousands, s.a. Light green shading denotes Brownback administration; very light green shading denotes Colyer administration. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.

Compare Kansas against her neighbor Missouri to see how far Kansas lagged as a consequence of Brownback’s policies.


Figure 2: Missouri nonfarm payroll employment (blue) and Kansas (red), in logs 2011M01=0. Light green shading denotes Brownback administration; very light green shading denotes Colyer administration. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.

Or, it could be just the sheer mendacity, mean-spirited criminality, and quasi-fascism of the candidate. Observational equivalence…

29 thoughts on “Why Kobach Lost”

  2. Moses Herzog

    I can’t swear to it, but I’m pretty damn sure the polls had Kobach winning, along with Nate Silver’s “538”. Menzie seems to know how to make me chuckle and smile even when he’s playing it straight (I mean that in the best of ways of course). That is a happy surprise, and I’ll give you at least one other happy surprise. Republican Steve Russell in the 5th District in Oklahoma. He hasn’t conceded yet—but there is no doubt, 4,000 votes or roughly 1.2% of the vote. I guarantee you both Russell and his staff are in complete shock tonight. And it’s scrumptiously sweet, because the man is a royal jackass. Clothing himself with the flag and guns (He owns a gun manufactory that even produces some AK-47s)
    https://kfor.com/2018/11/06/democrat-kendra-horn-defeats-incumbent-steve-russell-for-u-s-house-seat/

    Menzie, I’m still waiting on your nerd Egghead Tony up in Wisconsin to win the vote count and make my night a little more bright—Menzie, hurry up and help them count this crap, these Return of “Twin Peaks” discs have to go back to the library tomorrow man. I’m not sure if coffee and lemon meringue pie is gonna get me through the am hours on these discs.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Steve Russell NEVER gave a concession speech. Just a press release acknowledging he got his butt kicked by Kendra Horn’s campaign workers. Now imagine, if you slaved on the phone trying to get the word out, and trying to get people to the polls, or spending hours canvassing neighborhoods, walking mile after mile talking to citizens and handing out leaflets and flyers, and Steve Russell can’t get his puny stick figure butt out there behind a podium and thank all these people who broke a sweat and wasted many long-hour days trying to get his sorry narcissistic butt re-elected. I’m here to tell you, if I was a member of his campaign staff I would put the sole of my foot hard into the back of that b*stard’s lower spine and tell him to get his cowardly hiney out there and tell his staff he appreciates them and their hard work.

      Well, Steve Russell is a “conservative” with “family values”, so all those people who put their heart into his campaign, as far as Steve Russell is concerned, can “suck it”
      https://kfor.com/2018/11/07/expert-horns-defeat-over-russell-could-be-factored-by-turnout-energy/

  5. Tom

    Comment from a Kansan — my way-too-early and superficial analysis is that, compared to governor’s race in 2014, Laura Kelly was able to flip the state’s two largest counties — Johnson and Wyandotte — to the Democratic side. She retained six counties — Shawnee (state capitol), Douglas (University of Kansas), Riley (Kansas State University), Lyon (Emporia State University), Crawford (Pittsburg State University), and Wyandotte (heavily African-American and Hispanic) — that went Democratic in 2014. With Johnson County, a wealthy suburb of Kansas City, she most likely benefited from the votes of college-educated women and from families upset about cuts to education, both K-12 and higher education. Flipping Sedgwick County (and Harvey County, directly to the north of Sedgwick) was even bigger. It’s generally conservative, both economically — Koch Industries has its headquarters there — and socially. But job losses in the aviation industry and cuts to education probably were factors helping Kelly win Sedgwick.

    Unfortunately, for the 96 mostly rural counties that Kobach won, “sheer mendacity, mean-spirited criminality, and quasi-fascism” are virtues, not vices.

    1. PeakTrader

      Many people are ignorant that American Nationalism, or Exceptionalism, is the opposite of the National Socialist German Workers Party (Nazi).

      Leftists create words like “resistance,” which is basically implying Republicans are Nazis. So, they can behave like Nazis to gain more control over the masses, and the mainstream media laps it up.

      So, it’s a huge uphill battle for Republicans to achieve individualism, liberty, and small or limited government for the masses.

      1. pgl

        Oh gee – they let the Russian bot return to his usual babbling. But yea – Trump is indeed striving for the liberty of White America to abuse everyone else, which makes you happy.

          1. pgl

            Lord – you are one disgusting person. No one should have done that to Mr. Carlson. And for you to suggest I condoned this says more about you than it does me.

          2. baffling

            when you constantly blow your dog whistle, you are stooopid to think it only filters to the hounds you want. when you run a business model which exists solely to incite rage, why are you surprised when it happens? guess he does not like the paparazzi bothering him.

          3. PeakTrader

            Pgl, you constantly divide people by race and attack white people.

            You just said they “abuse everyone else,” i.e. non-white people.

            So, don’t pretend you have the moral high ground by shifting blame on others.

          4. pgl

            “PeakTrader
            November 8, 2018 at 2:44 pm
            Pgl, you constantly divide people by race and attack white people.”

            PeakTrader is a liar. But hey – he takes after Trump. Like his last press conference when he attacked a reporter for being a racist when she asked him a simple question.

            I guess we should just get used to this garbage as they never stop.

          5. baffling

            “Pgl, you constantly divide people by race and attack white people.”
            peakloser, you and many other fools have this misunderstanding that challenging white privilege is attacking white people. it is not. i understand white privilege very well, and I also understand how it can be detrimental to minorities. you need to increase your awareness in this world rather than continuing to live in a bubble.

    2. Manfred

      “Unfortunately, for the 96 mostly rural counties that Kobach won, “sheer mendacity, mean-spirited criminality, and quasi-fascism” are virtues, not vices.”

      Wow.
      Not that this is true for Democrats.
      What garbage. Just see how they treated Kavanaugh, and how they pushed the narrative of the presumption of guilt.
      But alas, that is not mean spirited, no. That is just a “policy difference”.

  6. dilbert dogbert

    Seems the White Walker got toasted.
    The thugs got 3 Senate seats but that means, hopefully, that they will lose the Senate in the next cycle.

      1. PeakTrader

        2slugbaits, I wouldn’t get your hopes up too high. Those are mostly Republican states. And, who knows what will happen before then?

        1. 2slugbaits

          PeakTrader Yes, most are in red states, but some states are redder than others. And it’s a pretty good bet that some of the GOP senators won’t be holding those seats come 2020 for one reason or another. The Roll Call story explains why a few of those senators aren’t exactly as safe as you might think.

        2. pgl

          “who knows what will happen before then?”

          Actually we learned yesterday what will happen. Trump has decided to replace Sessions with his political toadie. Next step – King Donald I. The American democracy is over. And of course you will salute that.

          1. 2slugbaits

            Next step – King Donald I.

            I suspect Trump would prefer the title that Oliver Cromwell chose: “Lord Protector” Donald Trump. Except that assumes too much about Trump’s historical literacy. It’s not like Trump has ever read a book that wasn’t about himself.

      2. baffling

        dems missed an opportunity with beto not beating out cruz. they fought a hard fight in texas, but fell just short. this should scare republicans about the direction of texas. unfortunately, there is enough voter suppression occurring in the state to help swing the vote-this year. within 2 or 4 years, max, that will become irrelevant. hardline immigration positions of trump coupled with more latino’s coming out of the shadows will make big changes, sooner than people think. cruz has done absolutely nothing for texas for 6 years. beto needed to focus more on that poor record, and he could have probably won.

        1. Moses Herzog

          Speaking as a non-Texan, I would have probably voted for a non-violent felon on the ballot who ran as the opposition choice to Ted Cruz. Based only on the solid theory that your average non-violent felon is probably more honest than Cruz is. That being said, Beto had a “cutesy” and “amateurish” quality which rubbed me the wrong way. I think Beto thought it was “endearing”. Depends on your definition of “endearing”. If you think Alfalfa on “Little Rascals” was “endearing” maybe.
          https://goo.gl/images/q6GFzs
          If you find Alfalfa more annoying, then maybe not. I think it takes just a little more than going on the Stephen Colbert show and going “Look Ma!!!! I’m on TV!!!!” to drive people to get out and vote for you. If Beto had grasped that concept, he might have had a campaign that had grabbed that last 2.5% he was missing. Some windows of opportunity in life are open for very abbreviated times. Sorrily for Beto, I think that window is now shut.

    2. pgl

      The EgoManiac in Chief is acting like Republicans won big time thanks to the EgoManiac in Chief. Of course he decides to trash reporters for asking him real questions. How dare they?

  7. pgl

    Trump right now is bragging about how great he is, screaming at the press for being rude enough to ask him real questions, and just lying about everything. Case in point – he told a Japanese reporter than we have a $100 billion trade deficit with Japan. Let’s check the data:

    https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=62&step=1
    Table 2.2. U.S. International Trade in Goods by Area and Country, Seasonally Adjusted Detail

    Last year we did import $138 billion in goods from Japan but we also exported $68 billion to Japan. Lawrence Kudlow is in the audience. I guess the Chief Economic Idiot told Trump 138 minus 68 = 100. No Larry! Of course that is the merchandise trade deficit. Does Trump and Kudlow think we are really running a $30 billion services deficit with Japan?

    1. baffling

      lets be clear here, pgl. kudlow did NOT let trump lie about the numbers. kudlow is as knowledgeable about such numbers as trump. i am sure they both believed, at that moment, that what they were saying was true. kudlow does not even want to be told accurate numbers, as they may interfere with his message. he simply wants to repeat his catch phrase of king dollar, whenever possible.

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