Stephen Moore Lies Again

CNN should dump him as a “economic analyst” — he’s nothing more than a propagandist. Yesterday, on CNN, Mr. Moore stated unequivocally:

“…we’ve got the strongest economy we’ve had in 20 years.”

I thought Mr. Moore was referring to unemployment rates, until I read his 2015 Washington Times op-ed casting doubt on the unemployment rate as an accurate metric. Hence, I concluded he must be talking about GDP. Figure 1 shows year-on-year growth rates in real GDP (Ch.2012$), calculated in log terms, with a red dashed line at 3%, the growth rate as 2018Q3.

Figure 1: Year-on-year real GDP growth calculated as log differences (blue), red dashed line at 3% growth equal to 2018Q3 growth rate. Unshaded area pertains to past twenty years. Source: BEA 2018Q3 second release, author’s calculations.

As can be easily seen over the past two decades, growth exceeded that 3% growth rate in 2003-06, 2010, and 2015.

So what could Stephen Moore mean? Does he mean including 2018Q4? Using the Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow estimate of 2.9 (12/18), the current growth rate would still be only 3.1%, still exceeded several occasions over the past twenty years.

Conclusion: Stephen Moore (remains) a liar, or is a statistical incompetent.  CNN should ban him.

11 thoughts on “Stephen Moore Lies Again

  1. pgl

    But wait – it gets worse as Moore turned ugly to any woman who might put forth a different view! No wonder Trump hired this guy – he hates women with brains:

    Fellow panelist Joan Walsh did not let that go unchecked. “Why’d the market go down 1,700 points in the past 5 trading days?” host Erin Burnett challenged. Moore, though, was quick to say it was was not Trump’s fault. “Because of this catastrophic decision by the fed which, by the way, Trump was right about this. He called out the fed back in September,” Moore insisted. Then after Burnett called him out for his claim, Walsh said this: “I’m not going to let Stephen hijack this conversation on a day like today and come back to the strong economy.”

    Moore was not done nor did he stop talking over the two women. “Steve, Steve, Steve, guys, guys, guys, just by talking — just by talking loudly, then nobody can hear you, okay? I get it, you’re angry,” host Erin Burnett cautioned, prompting Moore to blame Walsh. “I couldn’t hear because she keeps talking over me!” he said as an excuse for his own raised voice.

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      pgl: True, it’s hard for Mr. Moore to exceed his usual level of smug dismissiveness, but he managed it do it in this episode; perhaps he was inspired by being challenged by two women.

      Or, it’s because he can see Drumpfwelt collapsing.

  2. pgl

    I’m reading this 2015 Washington Times article where Stephen Moore goes all Gerald Friedman. How on earth does he get: “The $1 trillion growth gap.” Oh yea:

    “This economic recovery is the slowest in 50 years. If we had had the same pace of improvement since June 2009 when the recession ended as in an average recovery, national output and incomes would be more than $1 trillion larger today.”

    J. W. Mason tried to argue we should have had 3.5% growth in defense of Gerald Friedman and we hammered him for doing so. Maybe J.W. could have countered – well that is how Stephen Moore does it!

    Moore also went all progressive complaining about income inequality and how inflation matches any nominal wage increases. But that was 3 years ago. I’d bet he is not singing this tune in 2018!

    I am a bit surprised Moore did not point out that Obama’s employment to population ratio was not north of 64% in 2015 as it was that high in 2000. Of course today’s employment to population ratio is still a far cry from where it was in 2000. But we have the strongest economy in 20 years! Lord – Moore is truly one stupid person.

  3. 2slugbaits

    Menzie The other day you saved us from having to read NewsMax. Now you suffered through Stephen Moore for us. What next? An Alex Jones podcast? Are you building a resume for sainthood?

    1. pgl

      Just be thankful he did not make us watch Kevin Hassett’s appearance on MSNBC today. I noted how Moore advocated Trump’s “4 billion” spending on the wall. At least Hassett knew the formal request was for $5 billion not $4 billion. Now it was pointed out to Hassett that some estimate the true cost of building this wall will be over $66 billion. Hassett decides to duck that one saying he is no expert on the cost of construction. What a motley crew – toss out numbers with no basis and when challenged either scream at the ladies or simply duck and run.

  4. pgl

    I had to go back to the CNN “discussion” in light of the deficit hysteria we see in Moore’s 2015 oped. Moore back then was all alarmed that Social Security benefits were still being paid and the national debt had risen during a period of weak economic performance. Go figure. But in 2017 we had plenty of money for that tax cut I guess.

    Now I get Republicans at least pretend to be for smaller governments. But Moore had to support Trump’s stupid border wall so Moore thought wasting (my term not his) “4 billion” was no big deal. But wait – Trump was not asking for $4 billion. The figure was $5 billion. And since Trump wants to use steel – which will see higher prices thanks to those stupid tariffs – the wall would likely cost more than $5 billion. Stephen Moore only pretends to be a small government conservative and on top of that, he is so incompetent that he can’t even get the cost figures right.

  5. 2slugbaits

    The “big, beautiful wall” is a total waste of money at any cost, but if I were Pelosi or Schumer I’d swallow hard and offer the $5B for the wall in exchange for a permanent fix to DACA and a pathway to citizenship. At least we’d end up with something more concrete than Trump’s silly slatted steel wall…pun intended. My fear is that because Trump is a heartless bastard who doesn’t care about how much harm he causes other people, he would also be more willing to accept a prolonged government shutdown than would Pelosi and Schumer. If the Democrats are going to have cave-in eventually, then they might as well get something out of the deal while they still can.

    1. pgl

      Earlier the Democrats offered a deal that would combine DACA and $25 billion – five times more than Trump is asking for. And our Idiot in Chief shot that deal down.

  6. Not Trampis

    Moore lies or is that more lies.
    In terms of unemployment i have yet to find anyone who has found a structural break since trump came to power.

    Merry Christmas from down under to yoose all particularly to Menzie and James

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