Today’s Event Study Example

Seldom do we see such market moving data.

Figure 1: PredictIt probability of impeachment by end of first term, as of end-of-day 1/17. Source: PredictIt, accessed 1/18 2PM.

Over the past 17 hours, the market probability ascribed to impeachment jumped 13 percentage points.

13 thoughts on “Today’s Event Study Example”

    1. Moses Herzog

      I’ve done it again!!! I’ve moved markets. It’s so hard being humble when you’re destined for greatness. [ Snorts and hikes my britches ] Yup, you gotta get up pretty early in the morning to fool me and cousin Barney Fife.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGtzMbKOVts

      Well, I’ve done my duty for today and I’ve decided for now, I will let Sheriff Jason Leopold, NYT, WaPo, ProPublica, Reveal, go on watching things for awhile. Tentatively at least…….. But Deputy Moses Fife always stands at the ready. [ Snorts and hikes britches again ]

    2. Moses herzog

      I STILL believe Jason Leopold to be a very very reliable journalist. I take him at his word. If this was an error in fact, then I believe it was an unintentional and unwitting error in fact on Jason Leopold’s part. However, this report is troublesome. I think we still have to see how this plays out, but it definitely leaves some doubt on this particular story. That’s not an easy admission on my part—but I still believe we need to stick to facts, whether we like those facts, or not.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Quu1HAiqStg

    4. Moses Herzog

      Lanny Davis I suppose is “biased” as Cohen’s lawyer. And I really still don’t have much sympathy for Cohen, it’s easy to say you’re “sorry” and “repentant” for doing something after you get caught. But so far, unlike Mr Cohen, Lanny Davis hasn’t been caught in any lies. And I think Davis’s statements about donald trump, related to family are important to note:
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=505d0cy9Lio

      I also think it’s important to note, that donald trump doesn’t seem to bat an eyelid at dragging his own children in to participate in his felony crimes, or implicating his own children, as has been shown by highly respected news outlets and by donald trump’s own tweets implicating his son in felony crimes. What does it say about a man who coerces his own children to participate in felony crimes?? Whether felony crimes “against the state” or otherwise. Well I have commented before on this blog that donald trump is a narcissist, but is also somewhere near the area of being a psychopath. Well what is the major difference between a psychopath and a narcissist?? One of the differences is, sometimes narcissists do feel actual guilt after they have committed selfish acts that hurt others. Whereas, psychopaths feel nothing— no guilt. Where do we put a “man” (child?? an it??) who coerces and implicates his own children in felony crimes?? Seems to me that fits under psychopath more than narcissist. But there is not much doubt donald trump sits somewhere in that spectrum range, maybe a bridge or tether between the two conditions.

  2. Willie

    It starts with the economic Trump Dump that’s coming right up. Then it will turn into Dump Trump when the rest of the GOP figures out they can’t cover up everything forever, and they are tied to the Trump millstone anyway. As long as you can keep making a living and actually getting paid, it makes for satire. It’s not exactly comedy.

      1. Moses Herzog

        For whatever a Joe Six-Pack’s opinion is worth: I’m putting a roughly 98% chance Orange Excrement is NOT impeached between now and November 2020 (the time condition/proviso is important there). And still giving him a minimum of a 40% chance of winning the 2020 election.

        Why am I saying this, to appear like Mr Weisenheimer later?? NO. I am tired of people saying “I knew this was going to happen” “I knew that was going to happen” or “Just as I foresaw” after the fact, when they never had the balls to go on record. So “courageous” or not, I am putting my thoughts on what will happen before it occurs, not a self-coronation Nostradamus after the fact.

        1. Willie

          It depends on economic performance. If the economy overcomes Trump throwing sand in the gears on a regular basis, he will not only survive but could win reelection. If the economy falters, the average voter will notice and he won’t get elected. We are ultimately very simple people.

    2. Barkley Rosser

      Do note, sammy, that all the statement from Carr says is that Buzzfeed’s “description of specific statements” and “characterization of of documents and testimony” …”are not accurate.” It does not say that Trump did not order Cohen to lie, which may well be based on othr things than these particular items. This certainly raises doubts about at least some parts of the report, but it does not constitute a clear refutation of its main claims. We shall have to wait and see.

  5. Moses Herzog

    May our kind blog host please take note, I am putting this comment in the thread where it seemed to match the post topic most closely.

    Kids, when you’re reading certain books or longform journalism (especially the higher-quality strains thereof), may I suggest to you that if sometimes certain sentences and paragraphs do not literally JUMP OFF THE PAGE to swat your eyeballs to full attention—your reading comprehension may not be so great. May I present you with such said bedazzling gem??

    “It was back then that Finkelstein started developing a political method that now reads like a how-to guide for modern right-wing populism. Finkelstein’s premise was simple: Every election is decided before it even begins. Most people know who they will vote for, what they support, and what they oppose. It’s very difficult to convince them otherwise, Finkelstein believed. It’s a lot easier to demoralize people than to motivate them. And the best way to win is to demoralize your opponent’s supporters. That’s what Trump did to great effect against Hillary Clinton, and what he meant when, after the election, he thanked black Americans for not voting.

    From Buzzfeed’s Hannes Grassegger
    https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/hnsgrassegger/george-soros-conspiracy-finkelstein-birnbaum-orban-netanyahu

Comments are closed.