Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment Contraction Accelerates

The contrast with national manufacturing employment (total, not just production and nonsupervisory, which is declining).

Figure 1: Manufacturing employment in US (blue), and aggregate of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (red), both in logs, 2018M12=0. Source: BLS, author’s calculations.

For Wisconsin, manufacturing employment peaked in September 2018.

11 thoughts on “Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment Contraction Accelerates

  1. New Deal democrat

    Nate Silver looked at which economic variables were most predictive of election results back in 2011. Here’s the link:
    The change in employment ranked #2. The change in the unemployment rate came in right behind at #3.

    With that in mind, here are the same three states vs. the national unemployment rate measured YOY: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=pcSl

    Not looking so good for Mr. Trump *as of now*.

    Btw, as I have to constantly remind people, the economic models all predicted a very tight *national vote* in 2016, and most had a slight edge for Clinton, which was correct.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Funny how that works, when your candidate forgets to put the electoral college votes in that equation and skips the campaign bus to Wisconsin, and Michigan and etc, because, well, she’s just “too cool” for that. Plus the hand germs she was afraid of in those states. But hey, she can take cheap shots and smear 15+ year military veterans who served with commendations in a combat zone from her recliner. It all ended in fun for her, didn’t it??

  2. pgl

    I bet single statistic Bruce “no relationship Robert” Hall thinks this drop in Michigan employment = less Americans buying cars. After all in Bruce’s little world, two things are true:

    (1) GM and Ford do not sell any of their cars abroad;

    (2) Americans only buy cars assembled in Detroit.

    So come one Americans, buy a new car to help Detroit are. Any car will do as no one in MAGA world drives a Honda!

    1. Bruce Hall

      Hmmm. Don’t recall making those statements. What I did state was that Michigan’s manufacturing employment is closely tied to GM, Ford, and Chrysler production and that has leveled off or declined over the past year. Ford’s exiting from sedans can account for some of that decline. Wisconsin’s manufacturing is closely tied to heavy construction sales around the world; those have declined. Not familiar with Pennsylvania’s local economy.

      You might take note that few if any Asian/European branded vehicles are produced in Michigan. Ford used to produce Mazda vehicles at Flat Rock, but that ended quite awhile ago. If you followed the automotive news over the past month or so, you might have noticed announcements for expanded automotive production in Michigan due to shifting from other nations and new electric vehicle production coming on line.

      So, I forgot, what exactly was your point?

      1. pgl

        If you had anything but straw for brains – you would realize your 2nd sentence which you have uttered over and over implies what I wrote. But you don’t which is because you are beyond stupid. I rest my case!

  3. Barkley Rosser

    Well, there you go. They all elected Dems for gov. So, obviously they deserve this outcome (snark).

    1. pgl

      It is a story about a strike dumba$$. BTW – Menzie just posted one dedicated to YOU. It seems he is calling out your lies. Good show!

  4. Bruce Hall

    Oh, my! Even more bad news for manufacturing employment because of Trump: https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/25/economy/robot-jobs-manufacturing-automation/index.html

    And let’s not even talk about farm employment. Why farming used to employ half of the U.S. population. Now it’s less than 2%. Trump’s tariffs, naturally.

    But all is not lost. Soon, there will be massive employment opportunities for orderlies as Bernie and Elizabeth siphon off huge sums to implement M4A. Woo hoo!

    1. 2slugbaits

      Bruce Hall Apparently you misread what your link said. It did not say that robots were bad for manufacturing jobs, it said that robots might tend to increase inequality. Robots will replace some tasks, but someone has to build and program those robots.

      As to Medicare for All, aren’t you a Medicare beneficiary? If Medicare is good enough for you, then why isn’t it good enough for anyone else? Are you special?

      1. pgl

        Did he misread? After all – he is really, really dumb.

        Or did his mislead? Lying for Trump is his day job.

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