Updated Wisconsin Economic Outlook

Just released (even as the Trump administration retains its January forecast), Wisconsin Economic Outlook June update. Employment is now forecasted to rise, at a higher level than earlier predicted. The implied pace of employment growth is almost the same as in May.

Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment as reported (black), and as projected in May Wisconsin Economic Outlook (teal), in June (red), in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, DWD, and WI Department of Revenue.

Obviously, this forecast is conditional on the degree of control on the pandemic. So far, the pace of Covid-19 reported fatalities is stable around 7 per day (implying 2555 per year). Key models like UW IHME predict increases over time. Johns Hopkins University model forecast (at the high end) as of today is presented below (in cumulative level):

Source: Fivethirtyeight.

Interestingly, there has already been a hard hit to state revenues for Fiscal Year 2020 which ends in a week (June 30th).

Source: WI Department of Revenue.


6 thoughts on “Updated Wisconsin Economic Outlook

  1. macroduck

    “The implied pace of employment growth is almost the same as in May.” – oh, the understatement.

    The May projection, prior to the release of May jobs data, assumed the same rapid (I would guess unprecedented) pace of job gain, just delayed by a handful of months. So May’s gain was not the incentive for producing unrealistic estimates. It was merely an opportunity to move unrealistic estimates forward.

  2. Barkley Rosser

    This has nothing to do with the economic forecast in Wisconsin, but I have just seen that protesters in Madison have just pulled off probably the most unjustifiable statue teardown in the entire country. A statue has long stood at the eastern corner of the Capital Square in Madison of Union officer Hans Christian Heg, a Norwegian immigrant who died in the war and was a firm abolitionist. There is utterly no justification for taking his atatue down. But not only was it taken down, it was decapitated and the head an body were then tossed into a nearby lake. This is not only unjustified, it is completely insane, and I regret it.

    If this sort of nonsense continues, along with some other things such as recent events in Seattle that are over the line, the rantings of Fox News and Trump will come to dominate public consciousness, and the BLM movement will end up becoming seriously damaged. This sort of thing needs to stop now and stop for good.

    1. scott s.

      I graduated UW in 75. It’s not that much different from back then. I was a physics major and Sterling Hall had gaping cracks in it from where Karlton Armstrong tried (without success) to blow up Army Math Research Center, but did kill a physics researcher.

      1. Barkley Rosser

        scott s.,

        My father was the director of the AMRC when the Sterling Hall bombing took place. It was almost a half century ago, Aug. 24, 1970. I have written a piece about it containing not widely known facts that I shall make public near that anniversary.

        But, yes, I agree. This sort of looks like this, although the not-even-being-investigated murder of 19-year old Lorenzo Anderson in Seattle over the weekend more closely resembles it.

    2. Moses Herzog

      Wisconsin’s incarceration system needs to “stop now and stop for good”. Strange how some things upset you more than others Barkley. Inanimate objects shaped to the physique of a white man’s body are obviously high on your priority list.

      You harangue on-and-on-and on about many things Junior, can you tell us where on your blog or in any of your written diatribes you discussed living African American men and women stationed half of their mortal lives in jail for minor offenses?? NOTE: A “recent discussion” you had with your building’s janitor who you cannot locate doesn’t count.

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