IHM/Markit (aka Macroeconomic Advisers) releases July GDP:
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for August employment as of 9/1 (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (9/1 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.
The reverse radical takes shape…
IHM/Markit notes that the monthly GDP estimate implies a modest downturn in August and September numbers, given the current tracking estimate for quarterly GDP.
The 28.7% forecast for Q3 is consistent with GDPNow released today, at … 28.7%.
Update, 7:35 Pacific:
And here are some alternative indicators.
Figure 2: Monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), Philadelphia Fed Coincident Index for US (blue), Aggregate hours of all private employees (teal), all log normalized to 2019M02=0. Source: Macroeconomic Advisers (9/1 release), Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations.