As of today, the Covid Tracking Project reports 7 day rolling average of 4.29 deaths/day. IHME at UW projects a fatality rate of 14.83/day by Nov 1st, while Youyang Gu‘s model (forecasting performance discussed here) projects 12/day. Both of these exceed the 7-day rolling average of 11.21 recorded April 12th (according to IHME)
To place matters in context, 12/day works out to 365/month, while 14.83 works out to 451/month.
Governor Evers has just extended the statewide indoor-mask mandate, due in part to the surge in cases. As Reuters notes:
Wisconsin has experienced one of the highest percentage increases of coronavirus cases nationwide over the past two weeks, and has the second-highest rate of positive coronavirus tests in the nation at 17%, according to a Reuters tally.
Am I correct in thinking that Wisconsin must have one of the stronger drinking cultures in the nation (lots of Germans, cold weather, and Milwaukee known as big brewing city)?? I know Minnesota at one time had some problems with high rates of drinking and driving (again, cold weather maybe driving some of this). I’m wondering how much the drinking culture is related to the high Covid-19 rates in the state. Keep in mind this question is coming from someone who loves drinking and is pretty liberal in my judgements (read as non-judgements) of people who partake.
Moses,
Wisconsin has a secret formula that can be used for killing COVID-19 by smearing or ingesting (but probably not injecting). https://isthmus.com/food-drink/Yahara%20Bay%20Distillery%20makes%20140%20proof%20vodka%20sanitizer/
You just figured this out? Check the date – March 19, 2020. NYC breweries were doing things like that even before then. Always late to the party – Bruce Hall!
My wife and I live near Madison and have a place in La Crosse, Wis. We go there on weekends. It has exploded up there. The UW-Lax campus was out of control with college kids drinking and first weeks returning-to-school parties. They (UW) couldn’t stop it if they tried. 2-3 weeks later and on Friday and Sat evenings we drive by some popular night spots and bars and take a quick look inside them as we go by. Inside? Lots and lots of people, bending elbows next to each other and surprise surprise, no masks on. They don’t care or are simply tired of the whole covid thing.
They know as young people they can acquire the virus, and probably hardly get a dry cough for 3 days and a temporary loss of bodily energy. Passing it along to a professor, an elderly clerk at an ALDI grocers, a tavern worker who interacts with 80+ customers a day??~~~”not their problem”.
In my personal opinion this equates to at least the technical definition of manslaughter.
This has been an ongoing pet-peeve of mine during the Covid-19 discussion. I believe the worry about surface contaminants, while yes a small threat, way overdone and way overblown. and BTW I include this thought as it relates to public schools.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l8ErgbSTB4Q
If there was more stress put on masks, coughing into the elbow, making sure people have the top part of their masks sealed tightly over the nose instead of haphazard sloppily and/or wearing mask under the chin, quality/effectiveness of mask materials (the type cloth used), and washing hands, we’d be farther ahead than worrying about spraying desks and flat surfaces.
Did you see Trump’s rally in Pittsburgh last night? Very crowded, no social distancing, and virtually no masks. But Trump managed to keep away any dissenters. It seems he bragged that anyone who were not MAGA hat wearing freaks would get violently attacked. What a guy!
I almost watched it on Youtube, I was this close to clicking. Honestly I’m not sure my mental health can handle it at this point (I wish I was joking on that). I’m trying to keep my outlook relatively positive right now. I may click and take a few moments. I think it’s worth at least skimming some of the rallies’ video to get a feel for what he’s up to. The physical threats to attendees are nothing new (as you know), are something even female journalists have had to rough through. I hope journalists will attend but still be very aware of their immediate surroundings and safety. It might even be better for journalists to enter as MAGA fans from a safety standpoint, from my view there’s nothing ethically wrong with journalists doing that if it’s a personal safety issue.
“Chicago officials once again will require anyone traveling between the city and Wisconsin to quarantine for 14 days.”
(To be fair: they also banned those from Minnesota, Iowa, North and South Dakota and Nebraska. And obviously they have no detection or enforcement mechanism)
For Manhattan, we can stop people in the tunnels or crossing the bridge across the Hudson River. My only addition would be a search of the car for MAGA hats and if any are found – to impound the damn car.
A couple of links:
• https://twitter.com/andrewbostom/status/1308496346454913026 — lot’s of students going back to college; not so many complications when/if then test positive.
• https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/cases.htm — preponderance of new “cases” from those students going back to college
Also consider the economic impact of broad brush policies on your state’s economy: https://carsey.unh.edu/COVID-19-Economic-Impact-By-State (see Chart 3)
It seems the federal government is growing anyway. We need more federal government to fix the states’ employment issues. How about a mandate that all residents have to eat out once a week and take vacations four times a year?
Bruce Hall: Well, like yeah duh. Hospitalizations lag positives; deaths lag hospitalizations. I didn’t need a MD who writes about jihad to tell me that.
Also, the article I linked to noted the association between university reopenings and spikes. Thanks for the redundancy, though.
Andrew Bostom has his own blog:
https://www.andrewbostom.org/
I’ve scanned a few of his posts but had to stop as reading his insanity might be dangerous to one’s mental health.
Bruce Hall always finds the “best” sources!
I don’t know…… maybe we should throw Bruce a bone of encouragement when he gets away from the QAnon stuff?? Is it progression or regression when he goes from QAnon over to Jihad Conspiracy Guy?? I’m honestly asking here.
@ Menzie
Does Bruce Hall backtrack to read comments in 3-day old threads?? Anyone want to wager a $10 Bruce baby quotes this some time before this early November as “evidence” of vote rigging?? You know Bruce baby is going to read the headline, maybe the first sentence, and skip reading any of the rest.
“Despite the information vacuum, the White House press secretary told reporters “ballots for the president” had been “cast aside.” The Trump campaign’s rapid response arm pushed out the release from Trump’s own Justice Department under the headline ‘Democrats are trying to steal the election’ — ignoring the fact that the local government, Luzerne County, is controlled by Republicans. Conservative voices used the news release as rocket fuel to amplify the investigation on social media.”
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-local-elections-pennsylvania-elections-campaigns-07ab572103d67a3341011a691118f696
Andrew Bostom? Do you have any clue who this author is and what he writes about? Let me give oyu a clue – he hates Muslims. Since you have decided he is your new guru, how many innocent Muslims have you attacked in the last week?
Your last comment makes me think you were Herbert Hoover’s chief economic adviser. We know you were old – but that old? And great job with that 1930 economic recovery!
Bruce Hall As to college students, many of them also interact with people who are not college age. We’ve repeatedly told you that, but for some reason you’re unable to remember this simple fact. If you can’t remember it, then please make a note of it.
not so many complications
Well, that’s just wrong. Death is not the only complication for college aged students. Observational studies suggest that most will suffer some level of heart damage despite their young age. That means a shorter life. And college students with underlying conditions are at significant risk of death.
consider the economic impact of broad brush policies on your state’s economy
Again, you keep repeating the same mistake. We’ve corrected you many times. Experience has shown that there would be an economic impact even if the government didn’t impose restrictions. States relaxed restrictions on bars and restaurants, but that did not bring back bar and restaurant business. Believe it or not, some people are smart enough to avoid high risk places. Not everyone is a dimwitted MAGA hatter who doesn’t understand risk. You see behavioral changes in the wave like pattern for Rt in every state. People pull back when things get hot and then revert back to their bad old ways when the immediate threat wanes. We’re seeing the same thing in Europe. Many people lack long term self-discipline, so we need regulations to enforce discipline. MAGA hatters tend to have downscale jobs and low education levels precisely because they failed the marshmallow test as youngsters.
If you’re worried about the economic impact of state and local restrictions, then why don’t you write Mitch McConnell and urge him to pass the House bill that’s been sitting on his desk for four months.
How about a mandate that all residents have to eat out once a week and take vacations four times a year?
Because that would only increase the number of COVID cases. Duh!
“As of today, the Covid Tracking Project reports 7 day rolling average of 4.29 deaths/day.”
For a state with less than 6 million people, this is decent for now. The same source shows NY with around 9 deaths per day but our population is almost 20 million.
Contrast this to Florida or Texas which is seeing almost 100 deaths a day each. Yea – their populations are slightly higher than NY’s but in per capita terms, their ongoing performance remains dreadful.
Ah, the old “Deaths are bad but boy howdy look at those job losses and profits lost. That’s the real crisis, so let’s throw the doors open” argument. However, from the Carsey/UNH link, ” … the economic path is being significantly dictated by the success or failure in bringing COVID-19 under control.” Hmmm, where have I heard this before? If I could only remember … Oh, yeah, right here on this very blog! Many times!
To the degree that any regulatory changes reduce the likelihood of controlling the virus, they similarly reduce the likelihood of economic recovery. I am utterly flabbergasted at how hard it is for some people to grasp this very simple and blindingly obvious reality.
Being pro life just isn’t what it used to be. Especially when compared to the Dow, the S&P 500,,NASDAQ…..
@ noneconomist
Catholic Rick Pitino was totally cool with paying for a girl he impregnated to get an abortion:
https://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/12/sports/ncaabasketball/12pitino.html
And a 4-year Catholic college was happy to hire Rick Pitino AFTER he confessed to paying for the abortion of his own child:
https://newbostonpost.com/2020/03/15/catholic-college-hiring-basketball-coach-rick-pitino-who-admitted-enabling-an-abortion/
“noneconomist”, you strike me as an intelligent man who often “has his finger on the pulse” (as my father used to say). Before reading farther down can you pause a moment and take a wild guess at my next question Sir…….. ??
Do you think if Brett Kavanaugh had gotten Christine Blasey Ford pregnant that Amy Coney Barrett would have told Kavanaugh to just pay Blasey Ford to get an abortion and “just be done with it”?? Keep in mind, the person asking you this question has a very low opinion of the Catholic religion, so no need to “tread lightly” answering this question on my account.
Moses,
I’m sure, given his commenting history that no economist is being either sarcastic (as I was in a previous thread, and in my first paragraph above) or ironic. He’s contrasting the willingness of wingnuts to trade Covid-19 complications and deaths for assumed(!) future economic activity with their professed pro life stance (life which they claim starts at conception and in their concern extends all the way to birth). In their view, any of the rest of us living souls who contract the virus are necessary sacrifices to
Mammoneconomic activity.