Covid-19 Hospitalizations, Fatalities Trending Up

Two days ago, reader Bruce Hall wrote:

Cases continue to escalate; deaths do not; hospitalizations are basically level. The hyperbole around cases is unfortunate because infections are not categorized for action since asymptomatic to severe are lumped together.

Mr. Hall should revise and extend his remarks.

Figure 1: Covid-19 related current Hospitalizations (blue, left scale), fatalities, seven day moving average (red, right scale). Source: Covid Tracking Project, accessed 10/22/20.

Given previous observable correlation between lagged hospitalizations and fatalities, my guess is we will see fatalities continue to trend upward for some time.

26 thoughts on “Covid-19 Hospitalizations, Fatalities Trending Up

  1. joseph

    Seems like a lost cause. If you can’t get Bruce Hall and crew to recognize that hospitalizations are not flat, but an upward trend, how do you expect them to recognize that little blip on deaths as an upward trend?

    They are loony tunes.

  2. Moses Herzog

    Some of you will probably think I’m cherry-picking here, but I can assure you, for whatever value you place on my personal honesty, I basically had this thought randomly while wandering around twitter: Is it indeed possible that high blood alcohol content can give you some immunity to Covid-19???

    I am asking this question semi-facetiously, but please feel free to post earnest replies and/or offensive gambits towards me, whatever your frame of mind suggests.

    1. Barkley Rosser

      I give zero credibility to your “personal honesty,” indeed, negative credibility to it, Moses.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ Barkley Junior
        What, no predictions on U.S. 3rd Quarter GDP?? Check that record May consumption number if you’re feeling your footing is getting faulty.

        My prediction on 2nd Quarter GDP was negative 28.88 and the final number was negative 31.4. Now….. am I correct (I can look up your prior comment and link it if you like) that you were going to be shocked if it was worse than negative 10%?? Your personal honesty will be assumed on your answer, but we can go back to the permalink to your own comment. What do you say, dear brother Barkley??

        1. Barkley Rosser


          No, I am not making a forecast about specific numbers for third quarter. I said it would look initially like a V, but then flatten, which seems to be the case, but I am not going to bother with specific numbers.

          On the second quarter there was confusion about what was what, but I did not lie about my forecasts, as you somehow seem to be suggesting. And I was right that the initial pattern was a V, which you denied, and I think never did ever finally get around to accepting. I was the first here to call it, and call it accurately I did, as many here noted. But, really, dredging through details of what people said about the second quarter is now passe and just a waste of peoples’ time here to revisit. That you are so obsessed with this is simply pathetic.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            I am more interested in the patterns, not precise numbers. The current pattern is what I previously forecasr, a slowing of growth after an initial V-like bounceback. But I have no special insight regarding precisely what that slowing rate is and so am not going to make a forecast on it. Feel free to do so yourself, however Moses, if you think you have special information on this.

            I certainly hope that if you do so, you do better than your repeated denials that we saw an initial V-like bounceback, not to mention your repeated inaccurate claim that consumption did not rise at a record rate for a period back then, an inaccurate claim you were spouting yet again quite recently.

            You know, Moses, you really need to finally just admit that you were wrong about the pattern of recovery and then just move on.

        2. Barkley Rosser

          BTW, Moses, where are your predictions? And more to the point, where is the forecast regarding the pattern/shape f GDP you made secretly for the second quarter? Is this something like Trump’s tax returns that must be kept secret for Very Special reasons? Will you take it to the SCOTUS to resist telling us if I keep demanding it out of you, as I am doing, shame on me?

  3. Bruce Hall

    Menzie, you are being disingenuous. I have written many times that the data I use are official government CDC statistics rather than third party or estimates. I provide links to those government statistics. Now, if you are arguing that the government data is faulty because it verifies, okay then. We know from expanded testing that up to 40% of COVID-19 infections are asymptomatic. If people are being admitted to hospitals and test positive for COVID-19, is it because of COVID-19 or the myriad other underlying problems that so many people have? The data is pretty coarse.

    Do a regression… linear or exponential, whatever you like… on the data from mid-July to the last and if there is an uptick, it is still minor overall. It may change, but the relationship between cases, hospitalizations and deaths has been changing since April and that must be recognized.

    1. pgl

      Having reliable sources of data does not excuse your gross misrepresentations of the same data. You cherry pick per Kelly Anne’s every demand. I would accuse you of being a blatant liar but then that would be assuming you understand how badly Kelly Anne is asking you to misrepresent the data.

      Of course given your incredibly low IQ – maybe you have no idea WTF you are doing in behalf of Kelly Anne’s agenda.

    2. pgl

      BTW – deaths which were down to 700 per day (7-year moving average) but now have risen to 800 per day. Your bosses kept saying these would continue to decline. Of course they know they are lying. I guess you do not. Never overestimate the IQ of Bruce Hall.

      1. pgl

        Trump keeps saying we have rounded the corner and have this virus solved 99.8% or something like that. I have no clue what this 99.8% thing is so let’s chalk this up as another Kelly Anne Conway lie. Speaking of her lies which Bruce Hall keeps repeating like the good little stooge he is, I decided to check this for its 7-day average for daily deaths:

        Yes back on Oct. 17 one could say it dropped to 704. But just 6 days later, this 7-day average has jumped to 805. And not one bit of acknowledgement from Bruce Hall. Oh that’s right – he is under strict orders from Kelly Anne to dodge this inconvenient facts.

    3. Jeffrey Brown

      Full hospitals, talk of rationing care: New wave of coronavirus cases strains resources


      With coronavirus hospitalizations surging in much of the United States and daily cases hitting all-time highs, the pandemic is putting new strain on local health systems, prompting plans for makeshift medical centers and new talk of rationing care.

      In Texas, authorities are scrambling to shore up resources in El Paso, where intensive care units hit full capacity on Saturday and where covid-19 hospitalizations have nearly quadrupled to almost 800 in less than three weeks. In Utah, the state hospital association warned that if current trends hold, it will soon have to ask the governor to invoke “crisis standards of care” — a triage system that, for example, favors younger patients.

      “It’s an extreme situation, because this means that all your contingency planning has been exhausted,” said Greg Bell, president of the Utah Hospital Association.

  4. pgl

    “Given previous observable correlation between lagged hospitalizations and fatalities, my guess is we will see fatalities continue to trend upward for some time.”

    Exactly. Bruce Hall of course pretends he sees no correlation even though the way the graph is presented makes this sort of obvious. Wait for it – Sammy is about to go off on the way the graph is scaled. Trump does have it court jesters after all.

  5. ltr

    October 22, 2020

    At 12, She’s a Covid ‘Long Hauler’
    Although most young people recover quickly, doctors are seeing more children and teens with lingering fatigue and other chronic problems.
    By David Tuller

    In early March, when coronavirus testing was still scarce, Maggie Flannery, a Manhattan sixth-grader, and both her parents fell ill with the symptoms of Covid-19. After three weeks, her parents recovered. Maggie also seemed to get better, but only briefly before suffering a relapse that left her debilitated.

    “It felt like an elephant sitting on my chest,” Maggie said. “It was hard to take a deep breath, I was nauseous all the time, I didn’t want to eat, I was very light-headed when I stood up or even just lying down.” She also experienced joint pain and severe fatigue.

    At first, specialists suggested Maggie’s symptoms might be psychological, in part because she showed no sign of heart or lung damage. She also tested negative for both the coronavirus itself and for antibodies to it. But viral tests taken long after the initial infection are generally negative, and antibody tests are frequently inaccurate.

    “They didn’t know anything about ‘long-Covid’ at that point,” said Amy Wilson, Maggie’s mother. “They said it was anxiety. I was pretty sure that wasn’t true.”

    Maggie’s pediatrician, Dr. Amy DeMattia, has since confirmed the Covid-19 diagnosis, based on the child’s clinical history and the fact that both her parents tested positive for coronavirus antibodies.

    More than seven months into the coronavirus pandemic, it has become increasingly apparent that many patients with both severe and mild illness do not fully recover. Weeks and months after exposure, these Covid “long-haulers,” as they have been called, continue experiencing a range of symptoms, including exhaustion, dizziness, shortness of breath and cognitive impairments. Children are generally at significantly less risk than older people for serious complications and death from Covid-19, but the long-term impacts of infection on them, if any, have been especially unclear….

  6. ltr

    October 22, 2020



    Cases   ( 8,661,651)
    Deaths   ( 228,381)


    Cases   ( 7,759,640)
    Deaths   ( 117,336)


    Cases   ( 999,043)
    Deaths   ( 34,210)


    Cases   ( 867,559)
    Deaths   ( 87,415)


    Cases   ( 810,467)
    Deaths   ( 44,347)


    Cases   ( 403,874)
    Deaths   ( 10,044)


    Cases   ( 209,148)
    Deaths   ( 9,862)


    Cases   ( 85,729)
    Deaths   ( 4,634)

  7. ltr

    October 22, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    US   ( 689)
    Mexico   ( 676)
    UK   ( 652)
    France   ( 524)

    Canada   ( 261)
    Germany   ( 120)
    India   ( 85)
    China   ( 3)

    Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 10.1%, 5.5% and 3.4% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively. These ratios are high, but have been significantly higher, while falling recently.

  8. ltr

    October 23, 2020

    Chinese mainland reports 18 new COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland on Thursday registered 18 new COVID-19 cases, all from overseas, the National Health Commission announced on Friday.

    No deaths related to the disease were reported on Thursday, and 15 COVID-19 patients were discharged from hospitals, the commission said. A total of 403 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    The COVID-19 tally on the Chinese mainland stands at 85,747 infections, with 4,634 fatalities.

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    [ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17. Since June began there have been 3 limited community clusters of infections, in Beijing, Dalian and Urumqi, each of which was contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak ending in a few weeks.

    Currently there is another apparently limited community cluster in Qingdao, with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine again being used to identify the origin of as well as to contain and end the outbreak.

    Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined. The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.

    There are now 248 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 3 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]

  9. joseph

    These are the exact words that came out of Trump’s mouth at the last debate regarding his COVID response:

    “I take full responsibility. It’s not my fault.”

    This is the sort of cognitive dissonance that folks like Bruce Hall just swallow whole without even a burp.

      1. pgl

        You are concerned about some fictitious Russian mobster in a so so 1998 movie? Oh that’s right – you worship Rudy G. and his current band of actual Russian mobsters helping Putin get Trump reelected. MAGA.

  10. oee

    Paging Dr. Death err Dr. Redfield. He said things would improve? when? when there is no one else to infect? Kill? or debilitate?

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