Fatalities are likely rising; CDC determined fatalities consistently below alternative estimates in recent weeks; excess fatalities are revised upward (a lot, again).
Figure 1: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), fatalities as tabulated by Our World in Data (dark red). Note excess fatalities differ from CDC series which are bounded below at zero. Light green shading denotes CDC data that are likely to be revised. Source: CDC 10/28/2020 vintage, OurWorldinData version of 10/31 accessed 10/31/2020 and author’s calculations.
Kevin Drum updates his international comparison of deaths per million people:
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/11/coronavirus-growth-in-western-countries-october-31-update/
The US just past 700 alas. But Mexico is worse and literally out of control. Of course the Germans and Canadians have kept the per capita death count a lot lower.
Of course the White House is probably asking Bill Barr to arrest Kevin Drum for reporting facts before the election.
When adjusting for population, the number of new infections in Europe has now overtaken those in the United States, with Europe reporting 231 new Covid-19 cases per 1 million people, based on a seven-day average, compared with 177 new Covid-19 cases per 1 million people in the U.S. Overall, Europe, which includes 27 European Union countries and the U.K., is seeing nearly 120,000 new cases per day, Johns Hopkins data shows. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/20/covid-is-accelerating-across-the-globe-as-us-and-europe-head-into-flu-season.html
Bruce Hall: Yes. You should also consider the cumulative fatalities/population ratios.
Menzie, I’d argue that the series was discontinuous.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/lmc9346qlf8es8y/Daily%20Trends%20in%20Number%20of%20COVID-19%20Deaths%20in%20the%20United%20States%20Reported%20to%20CDC%20.jpg?dl=0
The relationship between cases and deaths fundamentally changed in May. There could be several reasons for that, but most obvious and prominent is the definition of a “case” changed in practice. Then the treatments improved.
The only thing that has remained relatively constant is that the 65+ population with pre-existing severe health problems were those most likely to die of complications.
If you really want to play with the ratios, the CDC data is here: https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36
You can export the data and use Excel or any other statistical tools available. I did a quick export into Numbers and then ran the ratio between cumulative deaths and cumulative cases (since you seem to prefer cumulative data rather than current). The current cumulative ratio is 0.0212855146716348. The peak ratio was 0.053895704528534 on June 23.
The peak daily ratio was 0.068649885583524 was on April 29; the ratio on Oct. 31 was 0.00239398084815321.
do you really think your analysis justifies presenting to 15 sig figs?
Bruce Hall What’s happening in Europe is what happens when countries abandon their earlier successful efforts to hold down the pandemic and choose to adopt the very policies that you’ve been recommending; viz., relaxing restrictions. The EU countries that are currently having the biggest problems are the very countries that decided to relax restrictions. This is pretty good evidence that you’ve been on the wrong side of the argument for a long time. Of course, you never learn so this lesson will escape you.
2slugs, just a few days ago you claimed there were no extended lockdowns. Now you insist that they are the cure all? So which is it?
It is the voluntary lockdowns causing the biggest problems. This Fall/Winter surge was predicted months ago due to folks staying confined due to weather. Please find or borrow a clue bat, as yours is obviously missing.
I’ve seen the US Covid experience described as a continuous 1st surge, as it has spread to new geographic locales and populations.
CoRev: “It is the voluntary lockdowns causing the biggest problems.” You really have things scrambled in your head – it’s lots of people going in and out of different enclosed spaces that’s a problem, not a bunch of the same people enclosed in the same space continuously, isolated from others, that is the problem. I can’t decide if you are being deliberately stupid, or deliberately trying to spread disinformation.
By the way, how’s that trade war with China going? You didn’t respond to my previous query.
Menzie, I can’t decide if you are being deliberately stupid, or deliberately trying to spread disinformation. Locking a number of individuals together if one is infected causes a SUPER SPREADER environment. Or it is just naive thinking: “not a bunch of the same people enclosed in the same space continuously, isolated from others,” that those enclosed same people won’t need to work, eat, and or go out for necessities or some social benefit.
It did work in China because they welded the doors and gates closed then placed armed guards outside restrict exit. Even then selected individuals either brought necessities to those locked down or select individuals were allowed to exit to buy necessities. They were NEVER totally “… isolated from others…”.
I never responded to your trade war comment as it was not my issue. How are those old soybean prices coming? And why did they go up?
Weather perhaps? Which was my issue from the very beginning.
CoRev just a few days ago you claimed there were no extended lockdowns.
Earth to CoRev…Earth to CoRev. That was when I was talking about the US. My last comment was about Europe. This should have been your first clue that I was talking about a different continent: What’s happening in Europe…
Lockdowns are what you do when everything is going to hell. There’s a lot of room between North Dakota and a total lockdown. Restricting indoor dining and not getting drunk at dive bars doesn’t strike me as a Big Ask given the alternative of a deadly pandemic. Europe used strict lockdowns the get an out-of-control situation under control. As my sister in Paris described it, things were very strict because the pandemic was raging. But then some European countries started loosening up a little, then a little more, then a little more, then a lot more. And that’s where they got into trouble. They made the mistake of listening to clueless people like you and Bruce Hall.
2slugs admits: “Earth to CoRev…Earth to CoRev. That was when I was talking about the US. My last comment was about Europe. ” It was wrong then about the US as it is wrong today about Europe. Some places in the US continue that lockdown strategy.
2 slugs also admits: “. As my sister in Paris described it, things were very strict because the pandemic was raging. But then some European countries started loosening up a little, then a little more, then a little more, then a lot more. And that’s where they got into trouble.”
Since this is an economics blog, can anyone give us a hint of the ECONOMIC impacts of continuous lockdowns? Why would any country ” … then some European countries started loosening up a little, then a little more, then a little more,…” ? Yet, your solution is to extend the economic impacts, while the disease had been dramatically lessened?
You did say something that makes sense: ” There’s a lot of room between North Dakota and a total lockdown. “, Which seems to indicate that even you believe a one size fits all lockdown solution does not make sense.
Sometimes the liberal mind is an amazement.
corev, once the virus starts burning through a population uncontrolled, you have two options. one is to lock down the community for several weeks to limit the spread and get the virus under control. the other is to do nothing, let darwin work, and achieve herd immunity. this will result in a large cost to life. what i find interesting, is how my evangelicals find themselves in support of the theory of evolution as the path forward. in fact, it is fascinating how many conservatives have embraced the theory of evolution while denouncing science at the same time! requires an enormous amount of mental gymnastics.
by the way, you still never answered the question why trump chose not to use hcq to treat his covid infection.
Watch this take down of the lies from Don Jr. on the number of deaths from COVID19 as it is spot on:
https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/30/trump-jr-false-claim-covid-deaths-keilar-nr-sot-vpx.cnn
But wait – I think we know the real identity of Bruce Hall. He is Don Jr. after all!
What the CDC is reporting as of 10/30: https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/123170277_905703740246839_6658920965510585583_o.jpg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=2&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=N2GdenSIYNcAX_ei7uE&_nc_ht=scontent-ort2-1.xx&oh=08b4f2e5e818518022234cf1a9ef28c5&oe=5FC3E4DF
Bruce Hall: I suggest you (gasp) run a regression (in logs) and see if you really think the two series “diverge”. That graph definitely is an example of mis-using dual scales!
Bruce has been ordered to mask the rise in daily deaths so Kelly Anne Conway drew this graph for him. Give the little boy a break as if he did not report this – Kelly Anne would cut him off from his government dole.
Those dual scales are direct lifts from the CDC website. You can adjust the scales all you want, the correlation between cases and deaths in April and May is definitely different from the post-May period.
Bruce Hall: So, as they teach you in *intro* econometrics, you apply a break-test, and then allows for shifts in the estimated relationship. Since that’s your maintained hypothesis, you should undertake the implied analysis — or at least whomever you’re quoting should (if they are technically equipped to do so).
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/31/us/coronavirus-transmission-everywhere.html
October 31, 2020
How Are Americans Catching the Virus? Increasingly, ‘They Have No Idea’
New outbreaks used to be traced back to crowded factories and rowdy bars. But now, the virus is so widespread not even health officials are able to keep up.
By Sarah Mervosh and Lucy Tompkins
When the coronavirus first erupted in Sioux Falls, S.D., in the spring, Mayor Paul TenHaken arrived at work each morning with a clear mission: Stop the outbreak at the pork plant. Hundreds of employees, chopping meat shoulder to shoulder, had gotten sick in what was then the largest virus cluster in the United States.
That outbreak was extinguished months ago, and these days, when he heads into City Hall, the situation is far more nebulous. The virus has spread all over town.
“You can swing a cat and hit someone who has got it,” said Mr. TenHaken, who had to reschedule his own meetings to Zoom this past week after his assistant tested positive for the virus.
As the coronavirus soars across the country, charting a single-day record of 99,155 new cases on Friday and surpassing nine million cases nationwide, tracing the path of the pandemic in the United States is no longer simply challenging. It has become nearly impossible….
Hospitalizations are on the rise as well. And it’s only the 1st of November before flu season really gets rolling. Gonna be a lot of dead Trumpers before next Spring.
https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-currently-hospitalized
But, but, but, more testing will solve this crisis in case expansion. I know because Biden told me so in a political ad.
CoRev: You omitted “tracing”… it’s a package. By the way, did we win the trade war with China? I’d like to acquaint you with something called “reality” if you do…https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/us-china-phase-one-tracker-chinas-purchases-us-goods
or we can follow the trump and corev logic, and assume if we stop testing then the virus will miraculously just “go away”. idiot.
2slugs, that’s some smart viruses, flu and Covid-19 pre-select by presidential vote? Do I detect a hint of glee in your comment?
CoRev: I’d say the guy who said “it is what it is” is the guy exhibiting indifference — perhaps glee — at people’s suffering…
CoRev Have you seen any of those MAGA superspreader rallies? The virus doesn’t discriminate, but the idiots who attend those MAGA rallies self-select for infection.
Latest estimate is that the Trump rallies have triggered in the neighborhood of 30,000 cases and around 700 deaths, with,. of course, the most famous of those being former GOP prez candidate Herman Cain who almost certainly got it at Trump’s notorious Tulsa rally, which was opposed by local officials. Really, I think the Trump people need to talk about Cain more.
What do you have to say about Herman Cain, CoRev, since you probably do not know any of the other roughly 700 dead from Trump’s rallies.
I have to say that I have found the bragging by Trump and his supporters, including those on Fox News, about the size of his rallies cmpared to Biden and his caution about either being exposed or spreading exposure to be kind of the ultimate symbold of this campaign. Somehow the Trumpists thought they were going to successfully ridicule Biden about wearing masks and not holding larg rallies, but it looks like he is the one with the last laugh, given the enormous support for mask wearing that is out there among the public. More than any other single thing, Trump’s mocking Biden for wearng a mask may well be why Biden has so much support from suburban women and also seniors, with this latter group always voting more than others and supporting Trump last time around. If as polls suggest Biden takes both Florida and Arizona which will cinch it for him if he does, he can probably thank the switch by seniors. But Trump has only his own macho ego and stupidity to blame for this.
Barkley, references please.
I hope the polls are right, but I always remind myself that half the electorate has an IQ under 100. Election outcomes tend to be driven by low information voters. Those are the ones that parties target in the waning days before an election. They tend to be minimally attached to the electoral process, poorly informed and highly susceptible to the kinds of appeals you see on TV in the last week of the campaign. Those ads are shot through with lies and appeal to raw emotions. Voters are nitwits and could easily fall for Republican lies. Keep in mind that the electorate in Weimar Germany was much better informed, much better read and more cultured than you’ll find in many of today’s American red states.
CoREv,
Just google “Trump Biden senior support.” There are lots of links and sources, and they all tell the same story. Although from Oct. 8, a Politico.com story has a fairly typical report. In 2016 Trump was supported by over 65s at 52%. Now it is at 39%. That is a national number. Other stories, including ones more recent and also focusing on Florida and other states with lots of seniors tell basically the same story.
I do not think even the pro-GOP pollsters, Rasmussen and Trafalgar, are disagreeing with this. Time to face reality on this, CoRev. Trump might still win, but it will not because seniors suddenly turn and support him strongly, no way.
CoRev Barkley, references please.
I take it that you were asking for a reference regarding the 700 deaths estimate. It’s a Stanford study that was released a couple days ago:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3722299
You’re welcome.
Barkley, I did: “Just google “Trump Biden senior support.” There are lots of links and sources, and they all tell the same story. ” and that’s why I asked for your specific links for comparison. I was interested in the Herman Cain reference, because the few I found denied being able to trace where he was infected. But that’s a very common occurrence with this disease.
Thanks 2slugs for the study link. I compared the Tulsa data with regard to the 6/20/20 rally, and it does not appear to have been a spreader, let alone a super spreader. Accordingly, I also think the study period of 9 weeks may be too long. The incubation period for this disease is from 2-12 days with the norm being ~5 days after contact. to make the 8 week period meaningful it appears that quarantining of those infected would have to be totally ignored. That’s just not credible.
This study reminds me of the post-Sturgis motorcycle rally estimates.
Thanks 2slug, that is the one on deaths from T rallies.
CoRev,
Remember Herman P. Cain and note how many T staffers and now Pence staffrs have gotten it, plus GOP politicians, compared to Biden and Harris and Dem politicians, lots of the former and just a handful of the latter.
My God. After years and years of having their “analysis” (read, cherry-picking one series in a fortuitous interval, then a separate one, ad infinitum, with nary a logical link) and especially their predetermined “conclusions” (read, ideologically forced unwavering faith) disproved by reality, and having that fact shown here in data, graphs, and words, the Usual Suspects refuse to learn anything. Moreover, they’re back to doing and writing the same disproven idiocies.
This has gone beyond willful, arrogant ignorance to willful, arrogant stupidity. Many, many days, especially in the last 8 months, I have wished that I had not left higher education after reading a post here and the comments to it. Making a point (in fact, innumerable points) when one has real-life bad practice, bad faith counterexamples to emphasize the wrongness is priceless.
And this doesn’t even include the ultimate in bad faith, the commenter who repeatedly, after reading comments that boil down to, “Look at all the data, nimrod,” tries frame those comments as wishing for many more people to die. If I were to make up such a fictional example of abject surrender to ideology in the face of overwhelming evidence, my students would call it ridiculous and stop paying attention.
I wish that I could I’m surprised by the comments above but, unlike the Usual Suspects, I have learned over the past years that neither facts nor data nor competent analysis shall deter them from their political hackery.