Employment Growth Continues to Decelerate: the ADP Report

ADP reports private nonfarm payroll employment today, +365K, below +650K consensus…:

Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment fm BLS September release (black), Bloomberg consensus for October as of 11/4 (teal square), ADP October release (red). Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

While it’s well known that ADP private NFP does not well predict BLS private NFP, it is interesting that in September, ADP growth rate is essentially the same as BLS…


17 thoughts on “Employment Growth Continues to Decelerate: the ADP Report

  1. Not Trampis

    This is fake news as I heard you great dear leader say there was a V recovery and he never ever lies.

    you realise the election result means there are a lot more morons in the USA than previously thought

    1. Barkley Rosser


      There was a V recovery for awhile, but now the GOP and Trumpists will claim it is the fault of Biden and the Dems that it slowed down as they act to block any further fiscal stimulus that might aid in its continuing.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ Barkley Junior
        I literally love and gush with ebullience when you make posts like this. Because….. as sadistically as I enjoy the banter with you (yes I’m telling on myself on not a very admiral character trait as it relates to people like you Junior). there’s nothing I could possibly say that makes you look like a bigger jack-a$$ than you continuing on referring to this recovery as a “V”. Please go on saying it to your heart’s content. You can also tell us how the lunchtime sky in Harrisonburg VA “is red” or “is purple” as well if you like. Keep repeating it. It’s my 2nd favorite thing on this blog next to learning something new and getting a better frame of view on economic data from Menzie or Professor Hamilton. It really is. I love it when you continue on telling some obvious LIE because you can’t say 3 words in succession. “I was wrong”. But I almost (I said almost) don’t blame you for not being able to type or utter the words “I was wrong” because once YOU have that small crack in the dam, what happens then for Barkley Junior, could get pretty bad.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Wow, Moses, it is quite something when you insist on putting in bold letters completely false statements.

          See next post. Menzie agrees with me that there was a V that has since flattened, which I was the first person here to call (the Trumpists called a V, but did not see it flattening). These are the facts. It is your bizarre insistence on claiming that my calling the V is a lie that is the obvious lie here. How many times do you have to see others agreeing with me that it was a V before you get it through your head that you are the one who is wrong here? Or do you simply not read what these people say?

          Actually what is going on here is not sadism on your part, apart from the obvious ongoing libel on your part that Menzie tolerates. It is the masochism of continuing to make yourself look like a maniacal fool, endlessly repeating something not only clearly false but repeatedly declared false here. Somewhere between sad and pathetic, but maybe your spouse or partner or invisible friend can comfort you or assure you that you really have not been shown to be utterly dead wrong on this matter here

        2. Barkley Rosser

          BTW, Moses, since you are back to claiming I am full of it on the V, what again was that forecast of the shape you made that you have still not revealed? On that I shall remind you that you should put up or shut up, but instead of shutting up you are back to repeating known lies, and with emboldened letters making it even more obvious how ludicrously out of it. Seriously pathetic.

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley Junior
            I didn’t claim it was a “V”. I didn’t claim it was an “L”. That concludes what I will disclose about the June 25th email, in which I stated what I thought the recovery shape would most likely be. If the receiver of that June 25th email (who very most likely is reading this blog comment right now) feels I am lying, or misleading, or misrepresenting what I stated in that June 25th email on what I thought the recovery shape would be, he is very welcome to deride or disparage my contention in this thread.

            The email itself I view as private, but if he has views on the email he is welcome to state them. Or he can sit back and enjoy the sword rattling. It doesn’t effect my very positive views in the receiver of that e-mail, either way.

        3. Barkley Rosser

          One more thing, Moses: I have said “I was wrong” on plenty of occasions here. There is almost nothing in our post above that is not an outright lie.

    1. Barkley Rosser


      I am not sure what you mean by “a V recovery without a vaccine makes no sense.” It was a V recovery while it lasted, with or without sense. Its flattening is not due to our lacking a vaccine, which we might never get. It is basically a matter that the high rate of growth coming from the bottom was so high that it simply was not sustainable and would hit the capacity limits of the economy. It had to slow down at some point, again, irrespective of the presence or absence of a vaccine.

      The probably more important issue is that of it also being a K recovery. So overall growth showed that rapid bounceback initially after the sharp fall making the V. But the recovery has been very unequal, with lots of gains to the top end while people on the bottom continue to decline. Hence the K, which is bad news, mate.

      I also would note that even if we never get a vaccine, there are clearly ways to mitigate and reduce the awful impact of the pandemic through mask wearing and social distancing. To the extent this slows down the virus without slowing down the economy too much, we may be able to straggle through economically without a vaccine, even though the V will have ended. But the V had to end even if we got a vaccine.

      I also note we are in a fresh surge, at least partly due to the colder weather, and we may have to deal with a worse new mutation, A20.EU1, which itself complicates the search for a vaccine. In the end it may end up like the flu, where we have to get a new Covid vaccine shot each year the way we do with flu to keep up with the latest mutation.

      1. Not Trampis

        you have a recession because of the virus, you have a recovery when it is opened up but a V recovery means the vvirus is under control.
        If it aint people will not spend etc

    1. Moses Herzog

      @ Not Trampis
      Your comments are “unfair”. You are the “fake news” I am not “trumpish”, “and you know that” “and everyone knows it”, that’s “ridiculous” You are “weak” “pathetic” a “loser”. I am “big”, I am “huge” I am “strong”. “stop trying to be PC” I have a lot of money. Believe me. I am brilliant. Believe me. I was always at the top. Believe me. The people who support me on this blog are amazing, and people who do not support me a re dumb. Believe me.

      Can you believe this guy Not Trampis?? Australians are “rapists”. Australians are “murderers”, And some…… Australians are ok, I guess.

      Thank you!!! You people are beautiful!!!! I’m holding a Bible now I never read. God bless everyone here, even the black people!! I love Black people. Black people say I’m better than Abe Lincoln!!!! Good night everyone!!!!!

  2. macroduck

    Among categories of employment, leisure and hospitality stands out as having continued strong job growth while other major catagories slowed. To which I say ” uh, oh”. The activity that’s likely to get people sick was thriving (relatively) in October, while infections were rising.

  3. macroduck

    We now have payroll and household survey data for October along with ADP. ADP shows a 365k increase in employment. The payroll survey shows 638k. Household survey shows 2.2 million. Covid continues to treat data collection like a terrier treats a rat.

    After 865k (after seasonal adjustment) women left the workforce in September, 480k came back in October. So while the overall effect of the pandemic on female labor market participation is pretty bad, the mismatch against normal seasonal patterns makes the underlying pattern hard to read.

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