Trends in Covid-19 New Cases, Current Hospitalizations, and Deaths

It seems to me unlikely, looking at correlations and lags, that we are indeed “rounding the corner” on the pandemic.

Figure 1: Covid-19 new cases (blue, left scale), current hospitalizations (brown, left scale), deaths (green, right scale). Source: CovidTrackingProject, accessed 11/1/2020. 

Note the designated Covid-19 fatalities likely understates the true number of deaths, as discussed in this post.

63 thoughts on “Trends in Covid-19 New Cases, Current Hospitalizations, and Deaths

  1. 2slugbaits

    Hospitalizations are an important factor. And very costly. According to a recent NYT analysis, a COVID hospital stay for someone over age 60 the median cost will be $61,192; but if you’re over 60 and hospitalized, there’s a one-in-four chance that it will cost $193,149. And then there’s the air ambulance cost, which is a particular concern if you live in a rural area because rural hospitals may not be equipped to handle COVID cases. That air ambulance ride will cost $38,770. And if you’re lucky enough to be President and get round trip helicopter rides, medical care at Walter Reed/Bethesda and expensive therapeutics, it will cost the taxpayers somewhere north of half a million dollars.

    But on the bright side, higher hospitalization costs add to GDP!!! That should please Bruce Hall.

    1. pgl

      “higher hospitalization costs add to GDP”

      But who pays for these costs? If the government is doing it – I’d be fine with that but our Republican know nothings are freaked out about deficits or the idea of raising taxes.

      1. 2slugbaits

        Well…I was being sarcastic. Adding to GDP due to higher hospitalization costs is tantamount to higher GDP due to higher depreciation costs. Not exactly the way you want to increase GDP.

        1. pgl

          GDP – depreciation = NDP. Yea obvious but an important issue in measuring the predicted growth impacts from the 2017 tax cut. Actually we should be using GNP – depreciation = NNP. It seems the predicted capture of the new capital from this tax cut made sure that the increase in GNP barely covered the new depreciation.

          So properly measured with NNP there were zero growth benefits from that tax cut for the rich.

          But you will not hear that from Trump’s pseudo-economists. After all, sound economic analysis is communism!

          1. 2slugbaits

            I’ve been a big proponent of NET product rather than GROSS product. NET product tells you how much you can consume today without diminishing what you can consume tomorrow. But it’s important to calculate depreciation correctly, and that’s something that we don’t get right with respect to natural resources. My thinking on this was strongly influenced by an old (1990) paper by James M. Hartwick. It was also one of the early uses of optimal control theory (Hamiltonians) in macroeconomics.
            It’s a short paper. Only about a dozen pages, but for me it was a real eye-opener.

        2. macroduck

          Closely related to the addition to GDP from Trump’s campaign, which is tantamount to digging up uranium and scattering it in schoolyards.

        3. Steven Kopits

          That’s good, Slugs. But I think right now we need to focus on depreciation and amortization of human capital. That’s where the large numbers are, eg healthcare and education. If you do that, perhaps half of GDP growth over the last twenty years disappears. It is a very big deal, I suspect.

          But at least we’re talking net versus gross. That’s a step forward.

          1. pgl

            A step forward? Economists have been talking about net output for over 80 years. And you think you just discovered this basic idea? Come on man!

          2. Steven Kopits

            OK, so what’s the net benefit of healthcare expenditures? How much of health spending is raising welfare (at some level raising GDP on a net basis( and how much is just offsetting a decline in human well-being and health?

            If we spend 15% of GDP more on healthcare than we did in, say, 1980, does that mean we are 15% better off?

        1. pgl

          Gee Bruce – I guess who decided to avoid the voting booths and your boy is going down. Oh wait – your boy wants the voting to stop now. Of course this is odd since Trump is trailing. It seems he is as bad as you in terms of thinking things through!

  2. Bruce Hall

    From Senator Scott Jensen of Minnesota… who also happens to be a physician.

    A good explanation of why “cases” are becoming an irrelevant measure of the epidemic. His explanation of the use and misuse of PCR testing for COVID-19 is enlightening and can explain the growing disparity between “cases” and deaths.

      1. pgl

        Senator Jensen has been echoing Trump’s baseless and disgusting claim that doctors are inflating the number of death from this virus from some alleged financial incentive.

        And of course Bruce Hall has to tout this disgusting hack as some sort of medical expert. I guess that is what Kelly Anne Conway ordered Bruce to do.

      2. pgl

        “Jensen, a Republican from Chaska, said he believes complaints to the Minnesota Board of Medical Practice that he was spreading misinformation and giving “reckless advice” about the coronavirus may be politically motivated.”

        He is about to be discharged from the medical profession but Bruce Hall tells us he is a “physician”. Bruce does have a habit of relying on the worst of the worst as his experts on things!

      3. Bruce Hall

        I thought he mentioned that the relationship between hospitalizations and deaths had also diverged, but that may have been elsewhere.
        Regardless, the only “reliable” metric of the epidemic is deaths and even that is complicated by the use of “COVID-related” which treats people who may have actually died of cancer, heart disease, diabetes, lung disease, kidney disease, and other serious conditions as “COVID deaths” even though many would have died soon of their underlying illnesses.

        That’s the problem with glomming onto a macro metric. Too many underlying variables.

        The near-term death rate for COVID-19 “cases” is approaching that of the H1N1 flu. Hospitalizations are not resulting in nearly as many deaths. As a result, the 622,482 cases and 18,500 deaths confirmed by laboratory analysis by WHO were considered gross underestimates. Indeed, later analyses based on statistical models that took into account countries with limited influenza-surveillance data indicated that the actual total number of deaths from the outbreak may have been as high as 284,500 to 575,400. That’s not to say that COVID-19 hasn’t resulted in “excess deaths”; the CDC estimates that. And with the coming flu season, the combination of viruses may be difficult to attribute related deaths to just one. Regardless, deaths will be the only reasonably reliable metric for the COVID-19 epidemic as cases and hospitalizations no longer align as distinctly as they did in the Spring.

        The so-called “pandemic fatigue” may be people recognizing the real risks to themselves and others. As a “senior citizen” I recognize my own risks and act accordingly. However, the risks to my grandchildren ages 3-11 are definitely not the same even though the “macro” policies out of Lansing pretty much treat us all the same.

        1. 2slugbaits

          Bruce Hall I recognize my own risks and act accordingly

          This is wrong. It’s based on a complete misunderstanding of the pandemic, which gets to why you keep focusing on “personal responsibility.” You are under the illusion that you can personally control the risk you take. As a practical matter you can’t. You need to start thinking in terms of collective responsibility.

          the risks to my grandchildren ages 3-11 are definitely not the same

          Your grandchildren are not old enough to assess the risks. That’s why they have parents. And even many adults are too immature to assess the risks; that’s why we have those “Triumph of the Will” style MAGA rallies. Collective responsibility means that we have to restrict the irresponsible behavior of some adults just as parents have to restrict the irresponsible behavior of 3-11 years old children. Do you have a problem with laws that restrict driving while drunk?

          not the same even though the “macro” policies out of Lansing

          Interesting. When some of the states tried to tailor separate policies by county, a lot of conservatives complained that they found it too confusing. Some counties had more restrictions while other counties had less restrictions. Instead they wanted a one-size-fits-all set of very loose restrictions. So be honest here. You’re really not complaining about Lansing having a uniform statewide policy. What you really want is a uniform statewide policy of not having any restrictions. Republican governors across the country have been fighting attempts by local and county governments to impose more restrictions than the state. Your complaints about a uniform statewide policy smack of crocodile tears.

        2. pgl

          Your Senator is a liar – just like you. I would ask you to cease embarrassing your poor mom with this intellectual garbage but of course you are beyond shameless.

        3. pgl

          “the only “reliable” metric of the epidemic is deaths and even that is complicated
          ‘by the use of “COVID-related” which treats people who may have actually died of cancer, heart disease, diabetes, lung disease, kidney disease, and other serious conditions as “COVID deaths” even though many would have died soon of their underlying illnesses.’

          Ah this Trumpian lie that doctors are counting non-COVID deaths as COVID deaths to make more money. It is a lie so disgusting that it would serve a trep like you to get this virus and have the entire medical profession to choose not to treat you. Yes – you are truly a disgusting little troll/.

        4. macroduck

          Oh, Lordy, hospitalizations do not “result” in deaths except in circumstaces in which the hospital caused the death. Hospitalization often precedes death, which is why during periods of rising hospitalizations there is a divergence between hospitalizations and deaths. Similarly, new cases (which matter matter enormously, by the way) lead deaths.

          Brucey, after Trump loses, are you going to have to find something else to do? Are you masters going to keep paying you for trolling here? ‘Cause your efforts to bamboozle are really kinda limp.

          However – note to Menzie here – Brucey’s masters may keep paying him because you respond. One aspect of human irrationality is that lies can be strengthened by refutation. Brucey’s masters have clearly picked up on that.

          Or maybe you should join the trend in social media of blocking lies about Covid on the grounds that they represent a danger to the public.

          1. pgl

            Trump’s tweets have been taken down from Twitter for a lot less. Today Biden visited the grave of his late son Bo and someone from Team Trump mocked Biden for doing so. Yes they are that disgusting. But take a look at Brucie boy’s disdain for the elderly. He is not only a lying troll but also someone who has no dignity or soul.

    1. pgl

      A Facebook rant from this political hack?

      Senate leader says he’s under investigation by state medical board for COVID remarks. State Sen. Scott Jensen, a physician, said Monday he has “no regrets” over controversial comments he made about COVID-19 that have sparked a state review.Jensen, a Republican from Chaska, said he believes complaints to the Minnesota Board of Medical Practice that he was spreading misinformation and giving “reckless advice” about the coronavirus may be politically motivated. The board declined to confirm any complaints or reviews underway, stating that such information is not subject to public disclosure.But Jensen shared a portion of the board’s letter with the Star Tribune, which states: “The Board has received complaints regarding public messages you made related to COVID-19. In accordance with Minnesota law, the Board is required to make inquiries into all complaints and reports wherein violations of the Medical Practice Act are alleged.” Two separate complaints were made to the board, Jensen said. He doesn’t know who filed them, he said. Jensen landed in the national spotlight after raising concerns that federal guidance could cause doctors to overcount COVID-19 cases and saying that there’s a financial incentive to inflating the numbers.

      Come on Bruce – we all know you are a disgusting lying hack. But this guy? I was only kidding when I suggested you would come out and agree with Trump on this pathetic charge that doctors were inflating the numbers. But here we see you are touting this a$$hole as some sort of expert.
      I would say you have burned any credibility you ever had but of course you have always rated on a zero on credibility.

    2. 2slugbaits

      Bruce Hall Oh my. Sen. Jensen is a crackpot who got himself in a lot of trouble last summer for making some pretty outrageous and false claims.

      He also doesn’t think things through. If his comments about cycling in PCR tests were true, that would increase the mortality rate of the virus. It also undermines his other pet peeve about “herd immunity.” If you don’t see why that’s the case, work the math. It should be obvious.

      growing disparity between “cases” and deaths.

      There is no growing disparity between cases and hospitalizations. Deaths are probably going down because we now have better therapeutics and (up until recently) greater hospital capacity. But as flu season hits and COVID hospitalizations spike you can expect deaths to spike because the quality of hospitalizations will decline. Doctors and nurses are already burned out. Hospitals might have beds available, but beds don’t treat COVID; doctors & nurses do.

      He is right that infections and deaths in certain EU countries are spiking at a very high rate; however, that is because those EU countries relaxed eating and dining restrictions, which yielded the predictable results. Here’s a better way to compare across countries:

    3. Ivan

      Just proves that if you dig deep enough into the barrel you can find a physician spewing some mind-blowing idiocy. Amongst those knowing what a PCR test is and how its used we have a debate of whether to stop at 35, 36, 37 or 38 cycles. Yes you get more signal (positives) the longer you go out, but is the diagnosis of clinical significance. Should a person positive at 38 cycles be asked to isolate for 14 days, even when no clinical symptoms are present. Depends on how important it is to sequester all potential transmitters vs. not bothering people who cannot transmit.

      However, from the question of the epidemics of COVID-19 nobody cares how many cycles are used as long as we don’t change the cycle cut-off number in the middle of the pandemic. The person in whom we identify a very small amount of “dead” (noninfectious) nucleotides was indeed infected. “Dead” nucleotides are not hanging around for long time. So when you find them in a person there is a very high probability that they came from living viruses having had some kind of a (sub-clinical?) foothold in that person recently. So that person should be counted as having had COVID-19.

  3. ltr

    November 1, 2020



    Cases   ( 9,473,911)
    Deaths   ( 236,471)

    Serious, Critical Cases   ( 17,205)

  4. ltr

    November 1, 2020



    Cases   ( 9,473,911)
    Deaths   ( 236,471)


    Cases   ( 8,229,322)
    Deaths   ( 122,642)


    Cases   ( 1,413,915)
    Deaths   ( 37,019)


    Cases   ( 1,034,914)
    Deaths   ( 46,717)


    Cases   ( 924,962)
    Deaths   ( 91,753)


    Cases   ( 544,346)
    Deaths   ( 10,622)


    Cases   ( 236,841)
    Deaths   ( 10,179)


    Cases   ( 85,997)
    Deaths   ( 4,634)

  5. ltr

    November 1, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    US   ( 713)
    Mexico   ( 709)
    UK   ( 687)
    France   ( 567)

    Canada   ( 269)
    Germany   ( 126)
    India   ( 89)
    China   ( 3)

    Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.9%, 4.5% and 2.6% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.  These ratios are high, but have been significantly higher, while falling recently as new cases are recorded and treatment is increasingly effective.

  6. SecondLook

    Using CDC data only:
    Total current population of the United States 65 and over: 54,058,263
    Total mortality using only Covid-19 as the case of death: 167,663
    Death rate as a percentage: .31%

    By comparison, using the data from the 2018-2019 influenza season the death rate (employing the high 95%UI) was .08%

    So far, it appears that the coronavirus is approximately 4 times as lethal to the over 65 crowd as the flu. Just by its lonesome self…

    1. pgl

      “Total mortality using only Covid-19 as the case of death: 167,663”.

      So bogus. If you had a minor cold and then caught COVID-19 and died, you would attribute the only cause of death to your cold? This is as dumb as it gets. But hey – you are a troll so this is what you write.

      1. John

        I didn’t read SecondLook’s comment that way; I thought it was meant to be a comparison of an absolute lower bound on the Covid mortality (based on Covid-only deaths) with an upper bound on influenza mortality (based on the high 95% UI), and, even under that scenario, Coronavirus was *still* 4x as lethal to the over 65 crowd as the flu.

        1. CoRev

          John, remember you are responding to The World’s Worst Analyst (TWWA), whose most common response is an ignorant knee jerk attack.

      2. SecondLook

        I specifically stated that using only the most conservative estimates, courtesy of the now sadly compromised CDC – the figures that the alternate reality folk sputter about – still yield heartbreaking numbers.
        Sorry that it escaped your notice that I was being critical of those idiots. I do tend to forget that like irony, being sarcastic is hard to convey online. Particularly if you’re terse about it.

        1. pgl

          OK I was harsh but in my defense I suspected the Usual Suspects would cherry pick what you said for these dishonest purposes. I see CoRev is already on the case.

  7. Jeffrey Brown

    NYT: As the Virus Rages, Some Are Convinced It’s Too Late to Stop It
    Coronavirus case counts are at record highs, yet many in states like Idaho are embracing a let-it-ride approach. One county with a hospital nearing capacity repealed its mask mandate.


    In northern Idaho, which is facing record cases and hospitalizations, the local health board last month repealed a requirement that people wear masks in Kootenai County . . .

    Governors around the country, particularly Republican ones, are following the president’s lead in resisting new restrictions against a virus that has powerfully persisted despite lockdowns in some areas over the spring and summer.

    Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota wrote that “there is no way to stop the virus,” while Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota said that when it comes to saving lives, “it’s not a job for government, this is a job for everybody.” In Tennessee, Gov. Bill Lee told residents that “at the end of the day, personal responsibility is the only way.” Gov. Mike Dunleavy of Alaska said in an interview that rising case numbers this fall should not cause people to go into hiding. . .

    Hospital and government officials have seen signs of pandemic fatigue, with child sports leagues looking to restart activities, friends celebrating birthdays and families making plans to gather once again — perhaps for the upcoming holidays. Gallup has tracked social distancing habits of Americans and seen sliding numbers of people practicing social distancing, from 92 percent in April to 72 percent in September.

    1. Jeffrey Brown

      Trump and his band of incompetent sycophantic enablers chose to put us in the mess we are in.

      WSJ: As Coronavirus Surges in U.S. and Europe, Other Countries See One Case as Too Many


      As the coronavirus surges in the U.S. and Europe, some parts of the world are sticking to a different path: zero cases, or near that.

      These places are easy to spot.

      The emergence of around a dozen Covid-19 infections in the Chinese city of Qingdao prompted authorities to test nine million residents. New Zealand, where cases are rare, traced a September cluster to a trash-can lid. Thailand recently welcomed its first foreign tourists in months—39 visitors from low-risk China—but imposed a 14-day quarantine, concerned that the nearly vanquished virus could sneak back in.

      Vietnam hasn’t recorded a locally transmitted case since September. Taiwan set a record of more than 200 days without domestic infections. Australia, much of which has been virus-free for weeks, touched zero new infections nationwide on Sunday.

      “In Australia, 10 or 12 cases a day is regarded as a disaster,” said Shane Oliver, the Sydney-based chief economist at AMP Capital, an investment-management firm.

      Vast populations are learning to live with Covid-19 in their midst. Their countries are trying to manage and mitigate the spread but accept that the pathogen will continue circulating.

      In places that belong to the other camp, the disease has received a far more hostile reception. Here, there is zero tolerance for the coronavirus, which is seen as a dangerous but beatable enemy that needs to be aggressively suppressed.

      Most of these places, which are all in the Asia-Pacific region, no longer record cases as daily counts or curves, but as one-off headline-grabbing events. Even a handful of infections is treated as a threat to be crushed. Public-health messaging has focused on preventing Covid-19 from establishing a foothold.

      Life in these parts has returned to normal in most ways. Bars and restaurants are bustling. Rugby games and marathons are widely attended. Food festivals are sold out. Soap operas can film crowd scenes. Even mask-wearing has relaxed in many areas. . . .

      “This is a perfect case study of how if you manage the pandemic, life can go back to normal,” Mr. Martin said about New Zealand, where he is working remotely and living out of a backpack. “It’s a peace of mind that you can’t put a price on.”

      The college-applications coach, who has been unable to depart New Zealand since regular flights ceased in March, compared his situation with that of his family in Dallas, where the response, he says, has been a “classic failure.” He is keeping a close eye on border requirements and visa regulations, though.

      “I’m hoping by the middle of next year there might be a vaccine and we can go back to traveling,” Mr. Martin said.

      End Excerpt.

      WSJ: How South Korea Successfully Managed Coronavirus


      “South Korea appears to have cracked the code for managing the coronavirus. Its solution is straightforward, flexible and relatively easy to replicate. . . .As a result, South Korea never had to mandate a lockdown, so restaurants and business were able to stay open, cushioning the blow to the economy.”

      End Excerpt.

  8. Jeffrey Brown

    There are of course two key problems with giving up on trying to control the virus:

    First, the disastrous results from running out of hospital beds, for all patients needing hospitilzation, both COVID and Non-COVID.

    Second, there is increasing evidence of longer term negative health consequences from COVID-19, even among people with asymptomatic cases, especially in regard to myocarditis.

    WSJ: Doctors Begin to Crack Covid’s Mysterious Long-Term Effects


    Nearly a year into the global coronavirus pandemic, scientists, doctors and patients are beginning to unlock a puzzling phenomenon: For many patients, including young ones who never required hospitalization, Covid-19 has a devastating second act.

    Many are dealing with symptoms weeks or months after they were expected to recover, often with puzzling new complications that can affect the entire body—severe fatigue, cognitive issues and memory lapses, digestive problems, erratic heart rates, headaches, dizziness, fluctuating blood pressure, even hair loss.

    What is surprising to doctors is that many such cases involve people whose original cases weren’t the most serious, undermining the assumption that patients with mild Covid-19 recover within two weeks . Doctors call the condition “post-acute Covid” or “chronic Covid,” and sufferers often refer to themselves as “long haulers” or “long-Covid” patients.

    “Usually, the patients with bad disease are most likely to have persistent symptoms, but Covid doesn’t work like that,” said Trisha Greenhalgh, professor of primary care at the University of Oxford and the lead author of an August BMJ study that was among the first to define chronic Covid patients as those with symptoms lasting amor Ethan 12 weeks and spanning multiple organ systems.

    End Excerpt

    NBC News: New study shows link between Covid-19 and heart damage


    New York’s Mount Sinai Hospital reported 63 percent of hospitalized Covid-19 patients studied had heart damage that could lead to heart attacks, pulmonary embolism and heart inflammation.

    End Excerpt.

    COVID-19 Can Wreck Your Heart, Even if You Haven’t Had Any Symptoms (8/31/20)
    Carolyn Barber, M.D.

    Carolyn Barber, M.D., has been an emergency department physician for 25 years

  9. joseph

    Bruce Hall: “I recognize my own risks and act accordingly.”

    Curiously, that is exactly what drunk drivers say as you wrestle with them for the keys. Except it isn’t their own risk. They kill other people.

      1. pgl

        He did nail it but if you expect Bruce Hall to acknowledge even the obvious – you don’t know the poor little boy very well.

    1. Jeffrey Brown

      In addition, as noted above, there is increasing evidence that the possible long-term risk of post-Covid health complications, notably myocarditis, has been significantly underestimated.

      IMO, I think that we are experiencing largely unrecognized super-spreader events, via youth sports leagues and to some degree, high school sports, where the athletes certainly and in many cases, spectators, get together without social distancing. And as noted above, “Gallup has tracked social distancing habits of Americans and seen sliding numbers of people practicing social distancing, from 92 percent in April to 72 percent in September.”

      What I find fascinating is that when we look at sports activities, the degree to which the athletes are repeatedly tested for the Coronavirus–and if they test positive, repeatedly tested for myocarditis with Cardiac MRI’s (CMR’s)–is largely dependent on their earnings potential, with professional athletes being tested almost every day, on one end of the spectrum, to youth sports league athletes, who are almost never routinely tested, on the other end of the spectrum. However, their risk of exposure is about the same.

      There is an ongoing debate in medical circles in regard to what degree that people who test positive for the Coronavirus should be evaluated with CMR’s for myocarditis, with a group of medical professionals recently writing an article against testing for myocarditis on a routine basis. A comment by “Dr JP,” following a 9/15/20 MedPage article advising against general population screening for myocarditis, put it better than I can:

      September 16, 2020

      What if the first sign or symptom of cardiac problems is sudden cardiac death while running or spinning a month after Covid diagnosis with no or minimal symptoms? 

      This has nothing to do with “Choosing Wisely.” It has everything to do with protecting insurance companies. 

      The authors of the letter should have called for a national observational database for the registration of such patients tested in the community with long term follow up. I suspect most people who get tested would happily agree to be followed every 3-6 months. And why did they notify the Echo society? No echocardiograms either?

      Soon the insurance industry will orchestrate “experts” demanding that state medical boards issue edits forbidding orders for CMR post Covid 19 unless ordered by some anointed academic.

      Let me see if I understand the logic here: CMR testing post Covid is ok for high-priced revenue producing college athletes but not for ordinary people whose civic duty it is to suffer their myocardial damage silently and die or be disabled without testing.

      And how are doctors on the front lines supposed to advise patients on their cardiac status post Covid?

      No symptoms, no problems? Just like in diagnosis? No symptoms, no disease?

      What you don’t see won’t hurt you — until it does.

      Dr JP

  10. ltr

    November 2, 2020



    Cases   ( 9,567,543)
    Deaths   ( 236,997)


    Cases   ( 8,266,914)
    Deaths   ( 123,139)


    Cases   ( 1,466,433)
    Deaths   ( 37,035)


    Cases   ( 1,053,864)
    Deaths   ( 46,853)


    Cases   ( 929,392)
    Deaths   ( 91,895)


    Cases   ( 560,586)
    Deaths   ( 10,734)


    Cases   ( 240,263)
    Deaths   ( 10,208)


    Cases   ( 86,021)
    Deaths   ( 4,634)

  11. ltr

    November 2, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    US   ( 715)
    Mexico   ( 710)
    UK   ( 689)
    France   ( 573)

    Canada   ( 270)
    Germany   ( 128)
    India   ( 89)
    China   ( 3)

  12. Moses Herzog

    I thought there was a small chance people might take an interest in this, and that maybe by my own personal request, I could get others (regular contributors to Menzie and Professor Hamilton’s blog) to contribute what their own experiences were today. You don’t even have to volunteer what your city/state is, only the time it to you from entering the line, to finishing filling in your ballot.

    I’m only interested in two things. The time you waited if you voted in person today, or the time it took to”early vote” at your county voting board.

    I feel we were very lucky, and it took us 90 minutes to vote—most people in our local area had to wait longer.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ Junior
        Don’t you wish you knew. I can tell you one thing. Even when I was playing the best role I could as an instructor, I didn’t have to use my job as leverage for attention, act like a goofy Muppet with disarranged thoughts in the classroom, or even wear leather pants. The people in my immediate circle know I don’t desire fake flattery or attention only for attention’s sake.

        I think you’ll find if you ever have (or can have) substantive relationships in your life, you’ll become much less curious about other people’s personal lives.

        1. Barkley Rosser


          Who my wife is and the fact that her arrival in the US was the top story o CNN is well-known, Moses. You are the one who has clearly had a problem with women here, especially older ones with some power, and continue to do so. Want to make some more of your wildly ridiculous claims about Nancy Pelosi, boy?

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley Junior
            I think your wife must be deeply moved by the fact you apparently think the most notable thing about her is, you think she was a popular internet click on CNN. I think the readers of this blog don’t need me to elucidate what that tells us about you as a “husband”. I literally feel pity for the woman.

          2. Barkley Rosser

            Don’t be silly, Moses. That is not the most important thing about her. The issue is that you spend time here making outright insane remarks about women, although you have cleaned up your act a bit, something that has made some of us think you must be quite alone with no idea whatsoever about women or any ability to have a relationship with one. So it is news that you might actually have such a relationship, although maybe that is why you have recently made fewer of these crazy remarks.

            I say little about my wife here, but I simply noted that her existence is publicly known as our relationship is a matter of the historical record due to having changed international law and relations. I also do not go on and on making weirdo screwed up comments here about various publicly known women. You do to a level that is truly sick.

            If you really do have a relationship, does she read the garbage you put here about Pelosi and have about others? Or maybe you are gay so the relationship is with a guy, or maybe you have a dog. Of course, an imaginary friend will go along with anything.

  13. ltr

    November 2, 2020

    A Rapid Virus Test Falters in People Without Symptoms, Study Finds
    A head-to-head comparison of lab and rapid coronavirus tests drew mixed reactions from experts, who raised concerns about accuracy.
    By Katherine J. Wu

    As the number of coronavirus cases in the United States exceeds 9.2 million, experts continue to call for an enormous scale-up of testing among both the healthy and the sick — a necessary measure, they have said, to curb the spread of an infection that can move swiftly and silently through the population.

    One strategy has involved the widespread use of rapid tests, which forgo sophisticated equipment and can return results in minutes. Purchased in bulk by the federal government and shipped nationwide, millions of these products have already found their way into clinics, nursing homes, schools, athletic teams’ facilities and more, buoying hopes that the tests might hasten a return to normalcy.

    But a new study casts doubt on whether rapid tests perform as promised under real-world conditions, especially when used in people without symptoms….

    [ A fair proportion of asymptomatic coronavirus cases are infectious as asymptomatic, and a portion of these people will develop symptoms. The Chinese isolate and monitor all asymptomatic people. ]

    1. Jeffrey Brown

      Virus hospitalizations surge as pandemic shadows US election

      Americans went to the polls Tuesday under the shadow of a resurging pandemic, with an alarming increase in cases nationwide and the number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 reaching record highs in a growing number of states.

      While daily infections were rising in all but three states, the surge was most pronounced in the Midwest and Southwest.

      Missouri, Oklahoma, Iowa, Indiana, Nebraska, North Dakota and New Mexico all reported record high hospitalizations this week. Nebraska’s largest hospitals started limiting elective surgeries and looked to bring in nurses from other states to cope with the surge. Hospital officials in Iowa and Missouri warned bed capacity could soon be overwhelmed.

      1. Moses Herzog

        17 deaths caused by Covid-19 in Oklahoma today (Weds November 4th). So this is just like the flu. In a predominantly rurally populated state you would expect 17 deaths caused by common flu on any given Wednesday or weekday. No difference there. Bruce Hall told me that anyway, so who am I to argue with the world’s most renowned epidemiologist?? Eat Bruce’s shorts Doctor Fauci.

  14. Moses Herzog

    They had a single stat on PBS NewsHour that I took as a very enlightening stat, or about as enlightening as a “single data point” can be. Unfortunately I missed the source (which I am sure they had in small letters at the bottom, but my eyes were not agile enough to catch. Even Menzie might be mildly impressed with this one:

    “The United States of America comprises 4% of the world’s human population. The United States has contributed to 19% of the World’s Covid-19 death count”

    Now, I am not certain if this fact would make it onto “Princeton”Kopits’ “USA Employers of illegal immigrants are patriots on the level of Ben Franklin, illegal immigrants are ‘murderers’ and ‘rapists’ ” blog or not. But hey, you can’t win them all.

  15. Jeff

    What exactly about that graph says to you that we’re not exiting the pandemic? Are you making the dubious assumption that the infection/death rate we say in the first half of the year is going to continue to the later half? That seems unlikely to me. The chart shows a pattern of exactly what you would expect as the virus moves from a pandemic to an endemic. We know there will always be seasonality with coronaviruses and can expect some uptick in deaths during the winter but this does not mean that we will experience another pandemic.

    1. baffling

      jeff, if the curves meet or exceed what we saw in the summer, will you simply say it is only endemic? exactly what is your threshold for calling it a pandemic? thus far it does not seem to be seasonal. and the curve is rising again.
      btw, pandemic refers to worldwide infection of a spreading disease. that is EXACTLY what is occurring in north america, south america, europe, russia and india. epidemic is usually limited to one country or geographical region. endemic refers to disease that remains quite localized and common to a region. jeff, if you are hoping the disease simply becomes endemic, then you are basically promoting herd mentality.

      1. Jeff

        I’m saying that if we see death rates that are on par with past seasonal experiences then that is a seasonal impact. Only when death rates exceed seasonal norms, then should it be classified as a pandemic. And this is EXACTLY what we are seeing now-seasonal norms. And btw, a endemic defined by a steady-state or baseline infection rate. It’s not defined by the range of the virus. Something that is present in populations across the globe (e.g., chicken pox) is endemic if the infection rates remain within norms. Might want to do a little research before trying to be a pedant.

        1. baffling

          endemic: “(of a disease or condition) regularly found among particular people or in a certain area.”
          oxford languages dictionary

          jeff, endemic IS a description of a certain range, contrary to your argument. if it is across the globe, then that is the range. but it need not be across the globe. malaria is endemic to certain parts of the globe, not the entire globe. jeff, you may want to do a little research before trying to be a pedant.

          since we have not even gotten through a year with coronavirus, your ability to define “seasonal norms” is a bit perplexing. jeff seems to be in a rush to judgement. one would certainly hope the numbers we see do not represent seasonal numbers in the future. that would not bode well for the world.

      1. Jeff

        Menzie If you’re so certain about this pattern, let’s define some real goalposts. Given that cases peaked around 30K and deaths peaked around 2.1K in April, and cases are now at 90K, are saying deaths will peak around 6K? 5K?

  16. Moses Herzog

    I was watching German TV today, and there was a lot of discussion about “human challenge trials” and the ethics/morality there involved, so I thought I would post this in a related thread on the chance anyone would find it of interest:

    Now, we can talk about utilitarian type decision making, which I heard Oppenheimer was a fan of:

    But I don’t think humans are monkeys, and I don’t think humans should be treated like monkeys.

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