With the release of monthly GDP numbers, we have the following picture of some of the key indicators followed by NBER:
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for employment as of 11/25 (light blue square), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (12/1 release), NBER, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
The picture is consistent with growth at a greatly decelerated rate. The Bloomberg consensus for November employment growth rate is 4.0% (annualized, log terms), compared to the actually recorded October rate of 5.4% (annualized). The November expected growth rate keeps on getting marked down; it was 4.5% about a week ago, that itself down from about 5% from a couple weeks ago. Some high frequency indicators suggest a negative growth rate for the end of November; here’s the Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock), released today, applying to the week ending 11/28:
Source: FRED, accessed 12/1/2020.
Personally, given the Covid-19 surge, current administration incompetence/obstructionism, and no imminent deal on another fiscal recovery package, I remain pessimistic on Q4/Q1 growth.
I like that 2nd graph a lot. I don’t remember seeing that one too often and looks like a good one to look at when the data is “noisy” or obviously when wanting recent data. That’s a great share there that 2nd graph.
Well, I fell asleep at the switch again. it looks like what the Congress does this Mid-December IS going to be interesting, and then there’s even debate that if McConnell “plays ball” then you still gotta get the Orange Abomination to sign off on it. He’s acting like a baby that needs his diaper changed, so good luck with that.
5% annualized growth in the 4th quarter. 1% in the 1st. Then vaccine blast off as restrictions are removed.
December 1, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 14,108,490)
Deaths ( 276,976)
India
Cases ( 9,499,710)
Deaths ( 138,159)
France
Cases ( 2,230,571)
Deaths ( 53,506)
UK
Cases ( 1,643,086)
Deaths ( 59,051)
Mexico
Cases ( 1,113,543)
Deaths ( 105,940)
Germany
Cases ( 1,085,661)
Deaths ( 17,359)
Canada
Cases ( 382,812)
Deaths ( 12,195)
China
Cases ( 86,542)
Deaths ( 4,634)
December 1, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
UK ( 868)
US ( 835)
France ( 819)
Mexico ( 818)
Canada ( 322)
Germany ( 207)
India ( 100)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.5%, 3.6% and 2.4% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-02/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-VSWaOOPux2/index.html
December 2, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 9 new COVID-19 cases
The Chinese mainland on Tuesday registered 9 new COVID-19 cases, 2 locally transmitted and 7 from overseas, announced the National Health Commission on Wednesday.
A total of 3 new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were recorded, while 259 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation. No COVID-19-related deaths were reported on Tuesday, and 18 patients were discharged from hospitals.
As of Tuesday, the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 86,551, with 4,634 fatalities.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-02/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-VSWaOOPux2/img/795eb99816bc4362958a7d0e3d578d57/795eb99816bc4362958a7d0e3d578d57.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-02/Chinese-mainland-reports-9-new-COVID-19-cases-VSWaOOPux2/img/744b64af9fff477682e10c8093ff02a2/744b64af9fff477682e10c8093ff02a2.jpeg
[ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since the beginning of May. Since the beginning of June there have been 7 limited community clusters of infections, each of which was an immediate focus of mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak having been contained. Symptomatic and asymptomatic cases are all contact traced and quarantined.
Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Cold-chain imported food products are all checked before distribution. The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.
There are now 268 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 8 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]
Congress, in 2011, simply stopped all participation by China in programs of the “International” Space Station. Now, in 2020, China has already launched and manned a prototype space station, which will soon be followed by a complete International Space Station. China has an advanced global positioning system. A comprehensive satellite system. China has sent an explorer to Mars. China has a rover which has been exploring the far side of the Moon for almost 2 years. China has just launched a set of 4 vehicles to travel to and land on the Moon, to gather surface and subsurface samples and bring them back to Earth.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-02/China-s-Chang-e-5-probe-completes-automatic-sampling-on-lunar-surface-VT6CLDgUPS/index.html
December 2, 2020
China’s Chang’e-5 probe completes drilling, sealing of lunar samples
By Pan Zhaoyi
The Chang’e-5 spacecraft has sealed up soil samples obtained from beneath the Moon’s surface, and is ready to continue collecting more samples from the surface, the China National Space Administration (CNSA) said Wednesday. *
After making a successful soft landing at 11:00 p.m. BJT on Tuesday, the lander started rolling out its solar panel wings and unlocking some of the payloads onboard to prepare for sample collection.
The lander first drilled a 2-meter-deep hole, digging out soil, and sealed it up at 4:53 a.m. on Wednesday. Next, it will use its robotic arms to scoop up more samples from the lunar surface for backup.
These samples, expected to weigh about 2 kilograms, will be sealed in what scientists have described as a long “sausage-like package”.
“Samples have to be sealed up in case any contamination occurs during the course back to earth,” Luan Enjie, the chief commander of China’s first lunar mission told CCTV. “The Moon environment is very different from the Earth, so samples need to be stored in a very clean container,” he added.
These precious soils obtained from the Moon are expected to provide information about its geological evolution and offer insights into solar activities in the universe, according to the mission team.
The Chang’e-5 probe includes a lander, ascender, orbiter, and return vehicle. The sealed packages will be stored in the ascender, which will lift off from the Moon’s surface to transfer the samples to the returner and orbiter waiting in lunar orbit. The unmanned rendezvous and docking in lunar orbit will be the first such task conducted by China.
At the proper time, the returner will then separate from the orbiter and carry the samples back to Earth, finally landing in north China’s Inner Mongolia.
* https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-12-01/China-s-Chang-e-5-successfully-lands-on-moon–VSilnSM6J2/index.html
Menzie,
I have a data question. When I go to FRED to look at the WEI (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WEI) I see a rise in the week ended November 28, not a drop. Otherwise, the two look much the same. The series I can find is NSA. Is the a seasonally adjusted series I’m missing?
macroduck: I think the difference is because the series has been revised since I downloaded the .png. Probably FRED should time-stamp the auto-generated graphs…