Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment for March?

ADP released their estimates for March today: up 517 thousand. Bloomberg consensus is for +575 thousand.

Figure 1: Month-on-month growth rate (not annualized, in log terms) in private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS October release (black), Bloomberg consensus for March as of 3/31 (teal square), ADP March release (red). Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.

2 thoughts on “Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment for March?”

  1. pgl

    This would be good news but note Employment-Population Ratio – 25-54 Yrs. is only 76.5% as of Feb. 2021. If this increases it to 76.7% or so we would still be a far cry from 80%.

  2. macroduck

    ADP has not been a great predictor of payroll employment data in recent months. The big rise in hiring in ADP data does look like we may have turned a corner. Jobless claims are slowing, also a good sign.

    In February, hospitality jobs accounted for most employment gains. ADP shows services generating most of the hiring in March, which would be consistent with more big hospitality hiring. It would also be consistent with the pick-up in Covid infections.

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