Monthly Business Cycle Indicators: The Rebound Continues

With the earlier rebound in industrial production, slightly accelerated growth in consumption,  key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC look a little better than even a week ago.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (11/1/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.

Consumption has not grown this fast (0.7%) since March 2021, when m/m growth was 4.5% (not annualized, in log terms).

IHS MarkIt notes that consumption (along with trade and inventories data) together pushed tracking estimate for Q4 from 4.9% to 6.8% (with other data pushing the tracking estimate to 7.4%). The newly released consumption data alone accounted for 0.3 percentage points of increase (all q/q SAAR).

Addendum, 11/25: Going beyond these indicators, note the CFNAI was up as well.

See 11/22 CFNAI release here.


27 thoughts on “Monthly Business Cycle Indicators: The Rebound Continues

  1. pgl

    In a way this news is like the sports coverage for any decent NFL team – two steps forward but one step back. Let’s just hope no one gets injured this weekend.

    1. Paul Mathis

      One step back: 95,000 new covid cases per day and that is before the TG infection hits next week. Just unbelievable that we still have this crisis.

      1. Moses Herzog

        I expect this to have an effect on inflation as well, that’s not being accounted for by most economists yet. That is, to be precise, a deceleration in the inflation rate~~ caused by the “nth wave”. I expect this to be felt at least before the end of the 1st quarter ’22.

        Germany and Austria tend to be a well educated and anal retentive group. If Germany is having problems in late Nov, you can start the countdown for the white trash and assembled round in the USA on “nth wave”

      2. James

        Predictable – given that we all knew the severity of this virus and the GOP/Fox News with their anti-mask, anti vaccine mandates/rhetoric – it is obvious that the GOP do not want a recovery from this pandemic and will do everything they can to obstruct an economic recovery including sacrificing the health of their GOP voters.
        In Wisconsin – at the county level – it is easy to match up the most backward GOP representation with high case fatality rates Compare Dane County (550,000 pop and 80% vaccination, 0.6% case fatality) with neighboring Dodge County (80,000 pop 50% vaccination, 1.3% fatality – for non-Wisconsin residents – State Rep Born (R) – Dodge County – goes to Fox News for his political and economic talking points and ideology). There is no mystery here – we all know the GOP is continuing to create havoc for their constituents.
        Unfortunately – at least in Wisconsin – I see additional economic erosion/healthcare outcomes of rural areas while their GOP political leaders actively encourage it or do nothing.

        1. pgl

          Well stated. And of course Trump’s favorite little stooge (CoRev) chimes in with his usual attempts to get people not to be vaccinated. Go figure!

          1. CoRev

            PGL has a problem with facts. 2021 deaths now exceed those of 2020. “Overall, more than 771,000 COVID-19 deaths have been reported in the U.S. during the pandemic. About 385,000 were reported in 2020, according to CDC data, and more than 386,000 have been reported this year.”

            Candidate Biden said: “Anyone who’s responsible for that many deaths should not remain as president of the United States of America,….”The President still has no comprehensive plan,” Biden added.””

            Just another metric voters will use in making their 2022 decisions. They will see a new total death count directly responsible for Biden/Democrat policies just as the voters go to the election.

            The ignorance of ideologues, like PGL, does amaze.

          2. baffling

            corev, serious question in search of a response. if trump had remained in office, please give a prediction of the number of deaths he would have had in 2021? would the number have been lower than current? if so, how?

  2. CoRev

    2021 US Covid deaths now exceed those of 2020 and we still have over a month to go. 2021 is with the Covid vaccines and 2020 is without. Soon we should start hearing of the Biden Covid policy successes.

    Happy Thanksgiving!

    1. pgl

      Well CoRev – you do know COVID-19 was not present in the first 2 months of 2020? Not that Trump did not have advanced warning, which of course he decided not to relay to the resut of us. Why was that CoRev?

      And of course the continuing deaths are from the unvaccinated – MAGA hat wearing idiots that listen to Trumpian liars who routinely tell people neither to get the vaccine, wear a mask, or social distance. Now why are these people lying to their own people this way?

    2. pgl

      Read in its entirety:

      November 25, 2021 at 3:36 am

      He tells the truth. You constantly lie. Why do you do that CoRev? Is it that you want people to die from COVID19?

    3. Baffling

      I will note that the majority of those deaths have drifted to the unvaccinated maga population as the year went on. Shall we continue that trend?

    4. Moses Herzog

      Snowflake CoRev still crying because his biggest hero in life lost another election. Why does CoRev admire weak pathetic losers?? Don’t worry CoRev, if Republican legislators can steal enough votes from Hispanics and the low income groups, your fat ugly limp-d**ked hero may have a fighting chance in 2024. Or maybe he’ll just run to get saps like you to buy a couple books, a red dunce cap, and a t-shirt as he laughs at all you MAGA dolts behind closed doors. I see 2:00am purchases of China made MAGA merch in your 2024 future CoRev. But those 2:00am purchases of MAGA junk may count as part of Biden’s GDP numbers, so spend selectively, ok??

      CoRev, Self-prostitution just isn’t the same since the ShamWow guy died. But they still love fools like you CoRev. They love you deeply.

      1. Baffling

        Actually trump went from controlling the white house, senate and house to losing ALL THREE within four years. That is what you call a loser, by a landslide. Corevs guy.

    1. Moses Herzog

      It’s also interesting to note, that as far as I’m aware of (Happy to be corrected) Nick Saban has never spoken out against Alabama State legislators on this issue. And Saban is a “leader”?? Fascinating…….. I guess “Prime Time” Deion likes Saban. They get along so well in the insurance adverts.

  3. pgl

    Read in its entirety:

    November 25, 2021 at 3:36 am

    He tells the truth. You constantly lie. Why do you do that CoRev? Is it that you want people to die from COVID19?

    1. Barkley Rosser

      He needs to keep providing a role model for “Econned.”

      And as for “Econned,” he wants to know why people like me keep “picking on” CoRev! Oooooh, we are such meanies!

      1. Econned

        Barkley Rosser,
        You are wroooong. Again. You’re either lying or misrepresenting. Again. let me be perfectly clear… I am curious why you’re a hypocrite. You suggested I was harassing Menzie by posing a single follow-up question (and doing so in an absolutely non-aggressive and non-confrontational fashion). Yet you continually attack others and often do so when entirely unprovoked and on completely unrelated topics. Are we clear now?

        1. Barkley Rosser


          Oh, you pop up here with a comment? And guess what? It contains a misrepresentation. It was a single question. But you persisted in bringing it up. Furthermore, scumbag, it was personally offensive toward Menzie Chinn. I would not have gotten on your case, but you brought it up again after he did not respond to it the first time. That was when I got on your case because it was massively out of line and offensive.

          So, do we need to check on what it was again, scumbag? You were bugging him about this study that claimed to show that economists have a higher percentage of parents with college educations than is the case for other disciplines., the authors of this study identifying that as meaning they come from a higher “socioeconomic” class than other academics.

          As I noted when I criticized you for demanding that he comment on this, not only does Menzie come from a family where the parents did not have college educations, but that he is also himself from an ethnic minority, one that has been especially under attack in the last couple of years. I suspected that he found that you were harassing him and the he found this inappropriate. It in fact turned out that he did, and he said so after I pointed this out and you stupidly claimed that it was not the case.

          Oh yes ,why then you “apologized,” except that you completely undercut your own apology with an “if” and a set of drivel that attempted to make you look OK. But it failed. You did not look OK. And now you are so stupid and senseless that you date to bring this incident up as if it is something where you were the wronged party, not Menzie Chinn? Dare I ask how old you are and maybe you need to visit some Alzheimer’s clinic?

          BTW, I am going to cut back a bit of my criticism of CoREv. You are far worse than he is. He has largely stopped doing this bit of going on and on with neverending comments in a thread, always insisting on having the last word, with it always including yet another lie or distortion that moves goal posts. CoRev did that annoyingly back when he and Menzie (with a lot of others backing Menzie and basically nobody backing CoRev, poor thing) in their multiple rounds on the nature of the soybean futures market. It went on so long because CoRev just kept on doing it over and over, with this leading Menzie to keep starting new threads to counter the last misleading inaccurate statement CoRev would insist on adding at the end of each thread. But it seems to me that CoRev has largely stopped that obnoxious practice, only to have you become the neo-CoRev on that bs practice.

          Anyway, I strongly suggest you cut it our right now. This one is not going to go in a favorable direction for you, buster. Moses may be pleased that you have picked up his senility theme, but I doubt he is going to chime in on standing up for CoRev at this point, whom he pretty clearly reviles. Do you really want to chime in on defending CoRev’s views on Covid vaccinations here, “Econned”? That is what the topic is under discussion.

        2. Menzie Chinn Post author

          Econned: Here are the instances in which you have remarked upon whether I have watched a particular video.

          P.S. – have you been able to watch the video from the Fed D&I conference showing research suggesting US PhD economists are the least socioeconomically diverse academics?

          Keep “blogging”, Menzie and we will wait for you to pen your mea culpa about US economists being the least socioeconomically diverse.

          I still can’t get over Menzie’s use of personal anecdotes as an attempt to refute someone’s comment that is, largely in part, about the questionable use of statistics by economists. And then it’s followed up by research (presented at arguably the leading economics institution in the worlds mere 2 days after this blog post) that refutes said anecdotes as a proxy for the US profession-at-large. Geez this blog is full of the lolz. Can’t make this stuff up.

          1) your feelings don’t trump data. Stansbury & Schultz presented their ongoing research at the Fed’s Conference on Diversity and Inclusion just a couple of days ago. The presentation was towards the end of the session. Go see for yourself. Or get a GA to do it for you…

          1. Econned

            You’re wrong Menzie.
            There are only two “instances in which [I] have remarked upon whether [you] have watched a particular video.

            “The presentation was towards the end of the session. Go see for yourself. Or get a GA to do it for you”
            “ P.S. – have you been able to watch the video from the Fed D&I conference showing research suggesting US PhD economists are the least socioeconomically diverse academics?”

            The other two referenced the video but had no mention or inquiry of whether or not you watched the video. Please get a thicker skin and correct your erroneous reply, you hack.

      1. Econned

        You’re a joke. It’s “ massively out of line and offensive” to ask Menzie a single follow-up question? That is considered to be “bugging him”? Asking once is an example of “ demanding that he comment”? Gtfoh. You do that constantly. So does Menzie. Assertions such as these are examples of why you aren’t taken seriously.

        And then your senile final paragraph. What drives you to such lunacy? Let’s pick apart each crazy sentence…
        1) “Anyway, I strongly suggest you cut it our right now.” Hahaha or what?!?!? Are you going to accuse me of being out of line if I don’t?
        2) “This one is not going to go in a favorable direction for you, buster.” The fact is that Menzie felt he was harassed. I apologized because that’s how Menzie felt. Regardless, of his feelings, I do not and will not be convinced that asking someone (in a non-aggressive and non-confrontational fashion) is harassment and ESPECIALLY not on this blog where Menzie is regularly harassing commenters (and of course so are you, but who really gives a damn about you given you’re merely senile old commenter and not the host who is responsible for the tenor of the blog).
        3) “Moses may be pleased that you have picked up his senility theme, but I doubt he is going to chime in on standing up for CoRev at this point, whom he pretty clearly reviles.” Here you are again bringing up a completely pointless comment about a commenter who has zero to do with this discussion.
        4) “Do you really want to chime in on defending CoRev’s views on Covid vaccinations here, “Econned”?” You brought my name into this topic (again – you dragging others into convos and doing so in a sophomoric fashion).
        5) “That is what the topic is under discussion.” However, you rather conveniently omit that the related topic that YOU explicitly brought up was your fetishes and unprovoked attacks of CoRev and how I have called you out regarding this. I directly replied to your assertion that I want “to know why people like [you] keep “picking on” CoRev! Oooooh, [you] are such meanies!”

        Now, please continue with yet another obfuscating reply in as you are prone to doing, but the record will stand… you lie/misrepresent/fabricate/forget/ignore with the worst of them. But there’s help… March 23 at 10am with a virtual conversations support group hosted by The Alzheimer’s & Dementia Alliance of Wisconsin have.

        1. Barkley Rosser


          Of course, just as predicted, here you are again, or there you go again. Since I see no good purpose served by having this go on and on and on and on like you make every bloody thread you make comments on go as has been pointed out, I shall save everybody from your nauseating conduct by making this my last comment on this one. That will leave you the opportunity to yet again make another final comment full of lies that will remain unresponded to. I note that you have done this every single other time, which means that in fact you have written quite a few lies in our debates that I have left unresponded to, which will be the case this time as well. Enjoy your fake “victory,” with this, of course, being how you continue to do something obnoxious that even CoRev has largely moved beyond.

          I shall only bother with two of these barely coherent points you attempt to make.

          Your apology to Menzie was total garbage. This sneery comment you now make certainly shows far more clearly what a horrible person you are, clearly the worst person participating here of anybody. You make all kinds of bad players here look good, without me providing a list. Clearly you are not only not embarrassed or ashamed, but proud of your conduct. But I am sure there is not a single person here who supports or agrees with your view on this matter, not even your occasional ally, the pathetic CoRev. Want to defend your follower, CoRev on his inappropriate slam at Menzie? Anybody else? There will be nobody standing beside you on this one, “Econned,” nobody.

          The other one is your lie that that CoRev has never provoked me. It may be that you were not around and so are just ignorant rather than being a conscious liar, which I think is generally the case. I have not forgiven CoRev for making false claims about my late father, none of which he has even admitted were false, although I provided substantial evidence they were. OTOH, he made an everchanging series of claims regarding the same matter about himself, with that whole thread indeed being another example of him doing what you do in your imitation of him, going on and on and on, with an everchanging story that does not stand up to careful scrutiny with goal posts that just keep getting moved.

          And with that I shall be out of here. Do try to be more creative with your next pack of lies and misrepresentations here.

          1. Econned

            Again, your babbling is senile-behavior. Just a few examples:
            1) you state “ your occasional ally, the pathetic CoRev”. I’ve never allied with CoRev. I only agreed with him in labeling you a liar. You see, Barkley, one can agree with someone on one item and not others. I’m not the subjective partisan hack that you are. Which brings us to,,,
            2) you ask “Want to defend your follower, CoRev on his inappropriate slam at Menzie?” I don’t have a clue what you’re talking about because, again, you’re dragging up pointless and irrelevant baggage. Again. But, no. Why would I want to follow anyone regarding an inappropriate slam? You’re strange.
            3) you assert “ The other one is your lie that that CoRev has never provoked me”. But I’ve NEVER asserted such. This is you distorting my comment. Yet again. It’s pathetic how you converse on this blog. Childish/senile take your pick.

            Again, you’re just babbling absolute nonsense and obfuscating without addressing my specific points. I couldn’t care less about your infatuation with CoRev but in any case, you do attack. It’s a fact. And you attack me. And often do so unprovoked (like the99% of attacks you place on me such as this very post – seriously are you that senile that you can’t see this?!?!?!) and then you get your adult diapers in a wad with ludicrous nonsensical diatribes (e.g. your many replies on this very blog post) once your b.s. gets called out. Yes, it’s your senility, but it’s still real.

            P.S. I can’t wait to call you out on yet another thread.

            P.S.S. Don’t forget the March 23 virtual help session. Until we argue again I’m wishing you peace, love, and Aduhelm.

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