Business Cycle Indicators – Spending, Income, Sales

Nominal consumption above consensus (1.8% m/m vs. 1.3%). Personal income was 0.6% m/m, vs. consensus 1%. The NBER BCDC looks at real consumption and real income ex-current transers for conjunctural analysis. These are plotted below, along with with real manufacturing and trade industry sales.

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus of 2/24 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Q3 Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2022Q4 2nd release via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (2/1/2023 release), and author’s calculations.

Strong labor market, spending and income numbers all suggest no recession in place yet. GDPNow is at 2.7% q/q SAAR for Q1; but IHS Markit/SP Global has upgraded its tracking estimate to -0.3%.

10 thoughts on “Business Cycle Indicators – Spending, Income, Sales

  1. Ivan

    Someone is turning a solid educational system into a “used to be” system.

    However, by the time faculty has been degraded and higher education in the Florida system has become a joke; the moron who destroyed it for his own political gain will have moved on to greener pastures. It will be the Florida senile seniors who voted him in, who will find it impossible to get a doctor that actually know much of any medicine.

    1. pgl

      “ban gender studies as a field of study”.

      Let’ think this through. When I was in high school we did learn about the birds and the bees which caution those of us paying attention to avoid unprotected sex. Even if a girl got pregnant, she has choices even if her dirt bag boyfriend ran for the hills. But then we are talking about the Roe era.

      Today in redneck states, kids are not being taught about their gender identities. So unwanted pregnancies will likely rise. And when the girl seeks help, the redneck government is going to ban her from getting appropriate medical attention.

      Yea – let’s turn the clock back on woman’s rights by over 100 years and make sure the kids have no real clue. MAGA!

    2. pgl

      That DeSantis is going after the 1619 Project as somehow being “woke” does not surprise me as DeSantis is playing the Trump race card.

      But Nikki Haley has one upped him by asserting that the 1619 Project is somehow racist. Haley is a complete disgrace but there will be some morons that think this two faced slime is somehow the next generation.

      1. Macroduck

        Haley has a race problem. I would not be surprised if racism toward others is her way of fending off racism toward herself.

        Hershel Walker had Trump’s endorsement. Haley is running against Trump. If she ever polls well enough to matter, Trump will resort to sexist and racist dog-whistle to knock her down.

        It’s interesting that Haley has spouted racism and agism, and has embraced a zenophobic, homophobic, misogynistic, jew-bating, muslim-hating racist preacher. This is Haley’s version of “Nixon goes to China”?

        1. Moses Herzog

          Did you see our great Mckinsey boy and South Bend Mayor Buttigieg when asked by a “TMZ” reporter some tough questions that weren’t on the “pre-approved” questions list?? After refusing to answer the “TMZ” reporter’s questions Buttigieg then immediately asked the “TMZ” reporter if he could take his photo in a very threatening manner. Remember what I said about the “woke” types, CNN anchor Don Lemon??~~and that if the things they thought inside their minds everyday ever sauntered out of their mouths, NONE of the “woke” types would have a job the next day. What Buttigieg did was a personal threat to the TMZ reporter and also an open attack against fierce independent journalism. But who does Mr Buttigieg think has been one of the LGBTQ’s greatest allies in opening up world/American society to the plight of LGBTQs?? American journalists…… ?? or the 1950s U.S. Department of Transportation??

          But who does Mr Buttigieg wave his baseball bat of power against now?? Certainly not the American railroads or chemical companies. As a “woke” gay male Buttigieg would sell his own group down the river in a heartbeat. No LGBTQs should fool themselves over Buttigieg’s sadly transparent facade of “wokeness”. Buttigieg is “woke” to whatever affluent interest group will pay his house mortgage and next campaign bills.

  2. pgl

    Steve Bannon sued by his own lawyers for half a million dollars:

    Steve Bannon’s latest legal trouble: a lawsuit alleging he stiffed his former lawyers out of more than $480,000.Bannon, a conservative strategist and longtime ally of former President Donald Trump, was sued for breach of contract last week by a Manhattan law firm that defended him in several recent high-profile legal battles. The firm, Davidoff Hutcher & Citron LLP, represented Bannon from 2020 to 2022 in matters including criminal cases stemming from his refusal to comply with a congressional subpoena and from allegations that he duped donors who gave money to build a wall on the southern U.S. border. The firm said it also aided Bannon in obtaining a presidential pardon just before Trump left office in 2021.

    Now I do not feel sorry for the dirt bags that represented Bannon in these matters but to see Bannon bankrupt on the streets would be justice.

  3. Moses Herzog

    I think, honest to God, I could live without gender studies at the high school level and would settle for high quality latex condoms being available to low income groups above the age of 16.

    But then, who among us really believes in a common sense middle ground?? Let’s all head over to the polar opposites section of the recess playground and get certified as nutjobs. Otherwise we can’t sit around and argue to eternity, and what’s the fun in that?? I can’t feel self-righteous and exercise self-insecurity demons by walking over to the middle ground and then shutting the F up. Plus ignoring biology is fun as well. Tomorrow I’m getting my self-identity labeled as “squirrel” on my driver’s license. Just because I see them on the public roads so much, I feel like I’m a brother to squirrels. And I’ll feel deeply emotionally bruised and scarred for life if people don’t also see me as squirrel.

    Does anyone know what Liberace, Richard Simmons, Boy George, and Rock Hudson did to survive before gender studies?? Asking for a friend.

    1. Macroduck

      The entertainment industry has often been a refuge. Outside of entertainment, life was harder. Remember when Barney was the only member of Congress who was gay? Except, of course, he wasn’t. And nowadays, Congress is part of the entertainment industry.

      1. Moses Herzog

        I have been a Barney Frank fan for quite awhile, as you may or may not have noticed. And I’m sure being gay has caused him some rough moments. But there are many different things which cause people “rough moments” and may or may not last an extended period of time/ percentage of people’s lives— being physically “ugly”, being “fat”/obese, being born with varying levels of autism, being an orphan, your parents getting divorced at a young age, on and on and on and on and on. Be that as it may, as “rough” a time as Barney Frank may have had it, seemingly he has anded up relatively socially adjusted pretty well with strong social skills despite the fact up until the time he turned 21 (and probably well after, to NOW) no one ever grabbed him by the shoulders as he was walking some school/office hallway and said “Have I ever told you how glad I am to view you as gay, or wait, that is what you “self-identify” as, right?? Just tell me if you identify as hammer head shark instead of gay white male, and I’ll operate appropriately”. Yet somehow Barney hasn’t had to enter the funny farm as of yet. AMAZING, aye??

        When does the endless hand holding get ridiculous and/or damaging to developing an inner strength to “roll with the punches”??

Comments are closed.