Ron Paul, on ending the conflict in the Ukraine. From CounterCurrents:
Veteran U.S. Congressman and former U.S. presidential candidate, Ron Paul, claimed to a round of cheering applause that a “simple” way to stop the wars is to “end the Fed!” – and to not send people to war unless they vote for it.
He said: “If you cannot print the money, you cannot collect taxes by debasing the currency and stealing the wealth from the people, unnerving the middle class and the poor because that is who really pays for this, you could not have a war.”
“Why do the people go to war?” Paul said. “If you think you should have war – have a vote and make sure that the vote is carried out by the people between 8 and 24. This is the group that gets punished the most.”
I daresay ending the Fed would constrain government spending (expenditures as well as transfers), but might also induce the raising of taxes.
I’m trying to remember – did the Federal Reserve System exist in 1861-65?
.This is a very short retrospective on Dianne Feinstein’s political career. I thought it was quite well written, so I wanted to share it with Menzie’s readers:
https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/feinstein-in-retrospect/
Her political career was mixed. As this account notes:
‘Her most notable achievements were her bill banning assault weapons in 1994 (not renewed, alas, when it sunseted ten years later) and the nearly 7,000-page report on the CIA’s atrocious detention and interrogation practices, which she commissioned and oversaw as chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee in 2014.’
And yet Bush43 snookered her on the 2003 Iraq invasion. Plus she lost to Prop 187 Pete Wilson and her views on immigration at the time were almost as repugnant.
California will choose a new Senator in the Nov. 2024 so let’s hope they choose better. Personally I miss Boxer.
@ pgl
Ok, uhm, You already know I don’t like Pelosi, It has little (nothing, little) to do with feminism, but it’s a WAY to play one’s cars I do or don’t have respect for. The last two years, Feinstein scores low, she should have resigned ealrier, But… But. Feinstein played her poker cards MASTERFULLY most of the time… Soooo can’t insult her the way I did Pelosi.
You’ll either “get” my point immediately, or you won’t.
Feinstein did serve one term too many.
*Play one’s cards.
This is what happens when you inebriated comment, as Menzie is all too familiar with on me. He’d have his NObel in Economics 3 years ago if he didn’t have to delete my comments, I mean…. just about
Now before the wheels start turning in your mind, there are times when men should STFU ALSO OK??? Boxer was Feinstein’s Jewish “sister” and Boxer was sharp as hell as well, But similar to Hillary she hurt her own party, because in self-interest–and hurtful to the Democrat party, Boxer never knew when to STFU. Plus she was semi-corrupt,
Nope.
Banning assault rifles and exposing the CIA’s crimes are worthy of any politician’s obit.
When Shrub / Chaingun / Wolfman et al snooker everyone from Colin Powell on down, that’s not worth a mention in Feinstein’s bil.
When Pete Wilson manages to snooker California — my home state — that’s not Feinstein’s fault.
The US relied on something called The Independent Treasury System from the 1840’s to 1913.
https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/united-states-and-canada/us-history/independent-treasury-system
Ron Paul knows nothing about monetary economics and less about US history.
I am a little surprised Ron Paul didn’t say something about cutting taxes and shrinking the federal government’s power. He’s not quite Grover Nordquist. Paul is more moonbat utopian and Nordquist is more selfishly opportunistic. Same result.
Let’s try this again. I hit return too fast.
I’m a little surprised there was nothing about reducing tax burdens and eliminating government power. Ron Paul is a moonbat utopian. Grover Nordquist is a cynical opportunist. Same result.
“Hundreds of protesters gathered in Washington, DC Sunday for the ‘March Against the War Machine’ rally, with a number of prominent speakers from across the political spectrum of U.S. calling on the U.S. government to end its military support of Ukraine in favor of diplomacy, and slashing the Pentagon budget to address numerous domestic issues. The anti-war event held at the Lincoln Memorial marked almost one year since the start of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine, and featured a wide range of public figures, journalists and former politicians, including several U.S. presidential hopefuls.
I am against Putin’s invasion of Ukraine even more than this crew. But why is this protest in Washington DC and not at the Kremlin. Oh that’s right – it would take real courage to protest in Moscow.
“I am against Putin’s invasion of Ukraine even more than this crew. ”
what you gonna do?
send a check to the irs tell them to give it the pentagon and make more 155mm shells for zelenski?
or tell the congress the $40B a year “invested” in tactical aviation to buy fewer f-35’s and get less readiness out of the legacy fighters held over bc f-35 is a wretched aircraft? from a gao report last nov…..
or tell the us army they really should have replaced abrams with future combat system in the early oughties but….. they spec’ed the undoable.
putin’s invasion may show the need to if not stop the waste turn it around as usa disarms itself with new super weapons that do not deliver.
ron paul has a point, if you read bruce bartlett’s economic decline of rome….
libertarians are so misunderstood!
“ “I am against Putin’s invasion of Ukraine even more than this crew. ” If pgl really had the courage of his convictions, he could go fight for Ukraine. Instead he prefers to bark at the moon…which is at least better than the chicken hawks running foreign policy….people who use other people and their children to fight their wars and proxy wars.
Yea – we get you moved to the Kremlin so you could enjoy the slaughter of Ukrainian children by your master. Big brave pet poodle JohnH!
Here’s Johnny, being his silly self, using silly debating tricks because that’s all he has.
Johnny has made up a silly rule, specifically for pgl – pgl’s views on Russia’s war on Ukraine don’t count unless pgl takes up arms in Ukraine. And note this isn’t the first time Johnny has written this in comments, specifically in reference to pgl.
Let’s think about this. If pgl also has strong views on the war in Syria, shouldn’t he also go to fight in Syria? At the same time? And if he has strong views on elderly care, shouldn’t he volunteer at a senior care facility? And if there are family members he cares for, isn’t pgl obliged to spend time seeing to their welfare, while fighting in Ukraine and Syria? And if Johnny is so convinced of Ukraine being the bad guy, why hasn’t Johnny signed up with the Wagner Group? Sauce for goose, sauce for gander… Johnny?
The point of Johnny’s stupid debating trick is obvious. Johnny’s position in this debate is weak. He supports Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, but he won’t come right out and say it. Johnny instead engages in what-about-ism (What about the Iraq War?) and attacks on the character of those who disagree with him (stinking patriot!) and insists that his opponents (pgl in this case) meet inane “courage of his conviction” requirements as the price of expressing an opinion.
The truh is, Johnny is pretending to occupy the moral high ground while cheering for the death of tens of thousands of Ukranians, the dispossession of millions, the destruction of their homes and their way of Life, their political disenfranchisement. But cheering for these things out loud is unseemly, so Johnny instead shouts down anything and anyone who opposes Putin’s war.
I could get a giggle out of watching Johnny thrash around, if his position weren’t so ghoulish.
JohnH is always very selective when wailing and gnashing teeth. There’s always the required “what about………… (fill in just about any US official c.1787-2023) when defending the current Russian misadventure and civilian slaughter while simultaneously grieving over what his country has or has not done.
Interesting that in discussing Iraq casualties post invasion, he mentioned nothing about Iraq casualties pre invasion (which you would think this highly concerned self styled lover of world peace would not neglect). Specifically the murderous assaults on Kurds and Marsh Arabs by Hussein and his Ba’athists, resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths. (All well covered by the media then).
Question: was this willful or simply ignorant or not important when attempting another junior high debate maneuver to impress the Russian seventh graders who hang on his every word?
Libertarians are misunderstood? Incoherence will do that.
Exactly!
The only place they are understood is in their own bewildered brains. Their presumptions are blasted away as soon as you expose them to facts from the real observable world.
ron paul has a point, if you read bruce bartlett’s economic decline of rome….
Hey troll – I read what Bruce Bartlett wrote and you cannot even get the title right:
https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/How-Excessive-Government-Killed-Ancient-Rome-Bartlett/10e2d6b6a9ee3c2e376114c2e91293a2ae0860e3#:~:text=B.%20Bartlett%20Published%201994%20History%2C%20Economics%20Economic%20History,the%20western%20empire%20to%20afford%20to%20defend%20itself.
iirc it was about having to grab briton for the tin to replace the silver in their currency.
what did you get out of the paper? how did the title fit?
btw to answer johnh you are too old and decrepit to go off anywhere there might be soldiers.
what did you do during vietnam?
Bartlett’s piece on Rome’s decline is most entirely derivative. Oertel and Rostovtzeff were dead by the mid-1990s, so Cato couldn’t get them to repeat their apocalyptic views of Roman decline resulting from mob rule. Bartlett was free to repeat those views as his own.
Funny thing. The scholarly world had mostly moved past Oertel and Rostovtzeff by the time Bartlett lip-synced their views for Cato. In 1964, a sort of masterwork of scholarship on the later Roman empire was published:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-roman-studies/article/abs/h-m-jones-the-later-roman-empire-284602-a-social-economic-and-administrative-survey-3-vols-oxford-basil-blackwell-1964-pp-xxvi-1522-vi-5231068-vi-448-with-7-maps-in-folder-14-14s/9737844A0495DF6C06D9AB9E383D4C3A
By the time Bartlett got around to pretending he had deep knowledge of the Roman economy, the scholarly world had long dismissed the ideas Bartlett cribbed from.
Seriously, anybody who reads a Cato publication which boils down to imposing modern debates about taxation and governance on classical cultures should realize they’re being hoodwinked.
It certainly was never one of Bruce Bartlett’s better writings. Thanks for the other account.
Libertarians are selfish cowards. They want to live in civilized society but don’t want to help pay for it. They don’t have the guts to be anarchists.
Did I miss anything?
Given how many Russian flags were at that “anti-war” rally, I daresay someone who’s been hiding out off the grid with no news of the outside world for the past 10 years is more against Putin’s invasion than that sad collection of marginalia
if all you know is in your grid you may be misinformed
Former Congressman, Dennis Kucinich, who fought for the Democratic nomination in 2004 and 2008, cited a bombshell report by Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersh to demand accountability from the U.S. government. “In blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline, this government has used illegal and unconstitutional means to destroy the energy resources needed to protect millions of people in Europe during the winter, and then to profit from its illegal actions by selling energy to Europe at a four to six times markup,” Kucinich said.
I guess Kucinich is as gullible as JohnH – this particular tale by Seymour Hersh has no backing. But hey – why bother with facts when one has to excuse Putin’s war crimes?
rumor is the professional intelligence gobbers are out to get biden, something about inane tilting with thermo-nuclear war among spooks who read the old reports from the surface tests…..
shorter what obama said about biden’s talent to fubar everything.
https://www.amazon.com/End-Fed-Ron-Paul/dp/0446549193
End the FED (2009)
In the post-meltdown world, it is irresponsible, ineffective, and ultimately useless to have a serious economic debate without considering and challenging the role of the Federal Reserve. Most people think of the Fed as an indispensable institution without which the country’s economy could not properly function. But in End the Fed, Ron Paul draws on American history, economics, and fascinating stories from his own long political life to argue that the Fed is both corrupt and unconstitutional. It is inflating currency today at nearly a Weimar or Zimbabwe level, a practice that threatens to put us into an inflationary depression where $100 bills are worthless.
Anyone who thought we were about to have Weimar-Zimbabwe in 2009 should not be allowed out of his house. Had we listened to this gold bug nutcase, the Great Recession would have lasted for many more years. Now we mock the economic stupidity of nutcases like Bruce Hall and JohnH but damn – Ron Paul is a true bozo.
“A small group of pro-Ukrainian counter-protesters also showed up at the rally, numbering about five people. They held signs saying “Rage against Russian Invasion” and carried Ukrainian flags.”
The five people with a little common sense. Anyone with a brain knows this is Putin’s war.
A good critique of Kevin McCarthy’s decision to turn over the 1/6 tapes to liar Tucker Carlson:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/colby-hall-rips-sick-joke-of-tucker-carlson-reviewing-jan-6-footage-he-s-not-an-honest-broker/ar-AA17KHgZ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=49edec087fa6426cb1e8d76620053e69
But calling Tucker an 800 pound gorilla? Now gorillas may be 550 pounds but why overestimate by a factor of 50%? Oh yea but because Bruce Hall is so a little cry baby that he thought it would be funny to overestimate my weight by the same factor. Now I can bench over 225 pounds so I guess Brucie is jealous that he struggles with 20 pounds. After the girls in his gym are so cruel the way they laugh at little Brucie boy.
why do you disparage gorillas?
Why do you write such asinine comments? Run away pointless troll.
I am all in favor of releasing the 41,000 hours of footage. But there is no justification for making that release exclusive to Tucker Carlson. Release it to the public. There is no longer any reason to keep it secret.
LOL! A Napoleon complex!
And Brucie’s little “point” raising Napoleon? Oh Brucie once again has no point as he acts like the Klass Klown he really is. BTW Brucie – your Napoleon did lead a charge into Russia getting near the Kremlin. Go ask your preK teacher how that worked out?
Ron Paul has about as much credibility as Rand Paul. Both of them live in a fantasy world. Both of them are simply hucksters selling snake oil to the masses. Like father like son.
Ya know that “how’re we doing?” question regularly addressed here? Well, since the beginning of February, money markets have priced in an additional 50 basis points into the mid-year fed funds rate, now at 75 bps vs 25 pbs at the beginning of the month:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
That’s partly just Fed folk hammering away at “we aren’t done yet!” and partly one month’s inflation data, but also some pretty good real-economy data. It’s not just in the U.S. where “Hey, we dodged a recession!” can be heard. Europe’s economy is showing signs of improvement:
https://www.tijd.be/markten-live/nieuws/algemeen/europese-economie-klimt-verrassend-snel-uit-dal/10448850.html
Apologies to those who don’t read Belgian. Anyhow, Europe and China were the cement galoshes which we going to drag us to the bottom, and both are now showing signs of life, China perhaps less so than Europe:
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3210970/chinas-exports-2023-weighed-down-very-weak-outlook-analysts-say
This isn’t a good time for drawing strong conclusions about China’s outlook, what with a movable New Year messing up data and the consquences of China’s changed Covid policy still unclear.
European natural gas prices are at their lowest point in over a year, which may have something to do with improved European performance:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas.
One point that need repeating is that seasonal adjustment is a mess due to Covid – North America, Europe, China, everywhere – so take the data we see over any short period with a grain of salt.
The Problem with the Fed — Deja Vu All Over Again
Milton Friedman, 1968:
“Too late and too much has been the general practice.
For example, in early 1966, it was the right policy for the Federal Reserve to move in a less expansionary direction-though it should have
done so at least a year earlier. But when it moved, it went too far, producing the sharpest change in the rate of monetary growth of the postwar era.
Again, having gone too far, it was the right policy for the Fed
to reverse course at the end of 1966. But again it went too far, not only
restoring but exceeding the earlier excessive rate of monetary growth.
And this episode is no exception. Time and again this has been the
course followed-as in 1919 and 1920, in 1937 and 1938, in 1953 and
1954, in 1959 and 1960.
The reason for the propensity to overreact seems clear: the failure of
monetary authorities to allow for the delay between their actions and
the subsequent effects on the economy. They tend to determine their
actions by today’s conditions-but their actions will affect the economy
only six or nine or twelve or fifteen months later. ”
Keynes in 1923 said the lag time was 16 months. The Fed keeps making
the same mistakes no matter who runs it.
The Fed should be abolished and replaced by the U.S. Treasury. My guess Ron would then ask for the “Fed” to return.
Menzie Chinn,
I’m trying to remember – which foreign war(s) were the US providing aid to in 1861-65?
Are you just being the dork you really are or did your preK teacher not tell you about the Civil War? Again troll – find another blog to pollute with your stupid pointless little garbage.
Trying to remember – what’s special about foreign wars in the context of monetary policy? Why won’t any old war suffice for expositional purposes? Or are you just being the same old low-brow bullplop artist as always?
Macroduck,
I’m not suggesting anything is particularly “special about foreign wars in the context of monetary policy”. I’m merely pointing out that Menzie isn’t being intellectually honest with his faux-question because Mr Paul’s comments are in the context of a foreign war.
The reason why “any old war” won’t suffice “for expositional purposes” is because, Menzie’s first sentence “Ron Paul, on ending the conflict in the Ukraine.” Doesn’t align with Menzie’s final sentence “I’m trying to remember – did the Federal Reserve System exist in 1861-65?”. I’m merely pointing out the obvious inconsistencies in Menzie’s exposition.
I am “just being the same old” commenter pointing out Menzie’s half-truths.
Econned: I repeat Macroduck’s question: What does the nature of the war — foreign or civil –have to do with the issue of financing? I think it’s irrelevant. If you have an explanation for why it matters, I would be very pleased to hear it.
Menzie Chinn,
I repeat my reply. Verbatim:
“The reason why “any old war” won’t suffice “for expositional purposes” is because, Menzie’s first sentence “Ron Paul, on ending the conflict in the Ukraine.” Doesn’t align with Menzie’s final sentence “I’m trying to remember – did the Federal Reserve System exist in 1861-65?””
1) I make no claim on the nature of the war having anything to do with the “issue of financing”
2) your thinking “it’s irrelevant” is irrelevant
My point has little to do with Paul’s thoughts in general or specifically. My point is you’re misrepresenting Paul’s comments by referencing a civil war (which really can’t be avoided) in a discussion of financially supporting another nation’s military efforts (which can be avoided).
So, I repeat my earlier reply to you:
“I’m trying to remember – which foreign war(s) were the US providing aid to in 1861-65?”
Econned
February 22, 2023 at 7:18 pm
Yea – this troll has gone well beyond absurd. You know if you banned this pathetically pointless wonder, no one would miss him.
You of all people should be careful questioning whether someone is being intellectually honest. You are nothing more than a worthless troll who really needs to just go away.
freh=nch royal maximillian had grabbed mexico, so Grant had the president send sheridan to run the texas department with a large corps of veterans. ultimately the locaks deplaced maximillian.
Anonymous,
I thought that was post-Civil War?
You thought? Gee I never knew worthless bot were capable of thought.
i do no use the shift key
maximaillian grabbed mexico (invited by santa ana) and was crowned in apr 1864.
sheridan was assigned to the west right after appomattox
he was executed by firing squad bc he was in the austrian navy in 1867.
usa did not intervene but sheridan was located there to give a invasion force an experienced successful general
disclaimer: i have read grant’s sherman’s and sheridan’s memoirs…
Marjorie Taylor Greene says she wants a Civil War because she is afraid of a Civil War?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mtg-defends-her-call-to-split-up-the-us-by-saying-the-country-is-moving-towards-another-civil-war-we-have-to-do-something-about-it/ar-AA17NEhp?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=bf3fc48a0dc44fa59cc8bd9d17c6f69a
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene defended her position that the US should be split up into separate “red” and “blue” states by saying another civil war is looming. The far-right Republican appeared on Fox News on Tuesday, where host Sean Hannity questioned her about her position, and how division in the US could be healed without a split. Greene responded by saying that she doesn’t want a civil war, but that the country was moving towards one and action needs to be taken. “The last thing I ever want to see in America is a civil war. No one wants that — at least everyone I know would never want that — but it’s going that direction, and we have to do something about it,” she said. Greene also claimed that everyone she talks to is “sick and tired and fed up with being bullied by the left, abused by the left, and disrespected by the left.” “Our ideas, our policies and our ways of life have become so far apart that it’s just coming to that point,” she added.
Poor Marjorie – that we respect the rights of blacks, gays, Muslims, Hispanics is such a hardship on her and her KKK friends. Maybe Marjorie will be happy if we bring back slavery.
When Emily Kohrs speaks, traitor Trump had to be listening:
https://news.yahoo.com/not-short-list-grand-jury-194741710.html?ref=upstract.com
The Georgia special grand jury investigating the attempt by former President Donald Trump and his associates to overturn the 2020 election results in the state has recommended indictments against several individuals on multiple charges in its report, only part of which has been released, the jury’s forewoman has said. “It is not a short list,” Emily Kohrs told The New York Times. She said the jury appended eight pages of legal code “that we cited at various points in the report”. She chose not to comment on who the grand jury has recommended for indictment as the judge chose to not release that information when publishing parts of the report last week. Ms Kohrs told the paper that seven sections of the report that haven’t been released handle recommendations for indictment. She was asked if Mr Trump had been recommended for indictment.
“You’re not going to be shocked. It’s not rocket science,” she told The TImes. “You won’t be too surprised.”
It’s not rocket science – Trump is a criminal. It is not a short list – yes the mob boss and his hence men are going down.
I seem to remember that recessions were more frequent and worse before we got the Fed. Wars were also much more frequent. Not sure about inflation, but I guess depressions are a cure for inflation – but then the cure is worse than the disease.
Ron Paul is one of those clowns who is obsessed with one specific issue and then blame that issue as the cause for any imagined or real problem in this world.
Interesting fair pay case before the Supreme Court:
https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-984_j426.pdf
HELIX ENERGY SOLUTIONS GROUP, INC., ET AL. v. HEWITT
CERTIORARI TO THE UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE FIFTH CIRCUIT
No. 21–984. Argued October 12, 2022—Decided February 22, 2023
Respondent Michael Hewitt filed an action against his employer, petitioner Helix Energy Solutions Group, seeking overtime pay under the
Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938, which guarantees overtime pay to covered employees when they work more than 40 hours a week. From
2014 to 2017, Hewitt worked for Helix on an offshore oil rig, typically working 84 hours a week while on the vessel. Helix paid Hewitt on a
daily-rate basis, with no overtime compensation. So Hewitt’s paycheck, issued every two weeks, amounted to his daily rate times
the number of days he had worked in the pay period. Under that compensation scheme, Hewitt earned over $200,000 annually. Helix asserts that Hewitt was exempt from the FLSA because he qualified as “a bona fide executive.”
I’ll let you read on but Hewitt won despite Alito and Trump’s two young guns dissenting. The fun part is in the footnotes were Kagan just rips the logic of Trump’s young guns.
If I recall correctly, it was Dick Cheney who said, “Deficits don’t matter.” Bush then proceeded to cut taxes and invade Iraq, thereby demonstrating that military adventurism can be financed with debt.
When taxpayers had to foot the bill for war, there was at least the potential for a measure of restraint and some public discussion of the wisdom and rationale for war.
No more. Under Obama, the pointless and futile war in Afghanistan was even exempt from sequestration!
Dick Cheney was even worse at macroeconomics than even Ron Paul. But he certainly has a better grasp of economics that little Jonny boy.
Like a decline in the national saving rates that lowered long-term growth from 3.5% per year to only 2.5% per year does not matter. Gee Jonny boy – your preK teacher forgot to tell you that too?
Two face Nikki Haley:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/21/politics/nikki-haley-secession-confederate-history-month-flag-kfile/index.html
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley defended states’ rights to secede from the United States, South Carolina’s Confederate History Month and the Confederate flag in a 2010 interview with a local activist group that “fights attacks against Southern Culture.” Haley, who was running for South Carolina governor at the time, made the comments during an interview with the now defunct “The Palmetto Patriots,” a group which included a one-time board member of a White nationalist organization.
Off topic, supply-chain/demand effects –
The NY Fed has (un)modified its Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) to include demand effects:
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/02/how-have-swings-in-demand-affected-global-supply-chain-pressures/
Now, by simply comparing the two indices over time, we can get an impression of the relative effects of supply and demand on supply chain performance. When both indices behave similarly, relative balance prevails. When they behave differently – represented by a wide gap on the chart – there is an imbalance, and we can see whether supply of demand is the source of the imbalance. Gotta love it when somebody answers a question like that.
As anyone who hits the link will see, there has recently been a substantial gap between the twoindices, as the “net” index diverges from the supply-only index. If I understand correctly, this means a formerly tight supply-chain situation has been balanced by weakening demand growth.
So the Fed should…?
FOMC minutes out today. Ever-so-slight increase in fed fuds rate expectations over the whole calendar. A month ago, the median priced-in expectation was split between the same rate at year end as now and a 25 basis point cut. As of today, pricing suggests either a 50 bp increase or a 75 bp increase by year end.
An admittedly cursory reading of the minutes suggests to me that the Fed folks are more set on maintaining a high funds rate than they are on raising rates much higher. Even if I read right, that could change. Fed folk aren’t much better at reading the future than we are. And are apparently just as likely to be deceived by messed-up seasonal adjustment as your average economist – don’t see a whole lot of “hold yer horses – this oddly strong January could be a seasonal adjustment think” in recent Fed chatter.