Analysis of current economic conditions and policy
Gasoline Prices, Weekly thru Nov 20
19 thoughts on “Gasoline Prices, Weekly thru Nov 20”
Ivan
I would not be surprised if this will be the beginning of consumers being a lot less worried about inflation. Most of them are clueless that inflation is not the same as high prices.
James
What I find fascinating is that Saudi/Putin cutting production is not having the same effect this year. I wonder if investment in solar has some impact? https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60922 And, of course, EU moves to LNG and renewable energy.
Macroduck
Keep in mind that the world’s largest petroleum producer is ramping up production, helping to offset cuts elsewhere:
Almost certainly the result of Biden’s war on oil.
pgl
“the world’s largest petroleum producer is ramping up production”
US production up by almost 2 million barrels by per day since Biden took office!
And little CoRev and Brucie Boy told us that the Biden Administration was waging a war against Big Oil.
Yea I get the two of them lie more than even Trump.
Ivan
There are a lot of factors keeping oil and gasoline prices down. Many being the result of Biden’s competent government.
1. Biden pushing oil companies to use all those drilling licenses they had already gotten but not using.
2. Biden reminding the Saudi government that there is a limit to their behavior if they want to be our friend (giving Javanka $2 billion is not enough).
3. Policies that have pushed US and EU to switch away from use of oil and hydrocarbon energy towards renewables and energy efficiency.
4. Biden’s push to have more oil and natural gas developed in countries not hostile to US.
Russia, and to a lesser extend the Saudis, are in a catch 22. Higher prices will give them more money here and now – but also increase the profitability of alternative energy projects. So their overall hydrocarbon income over the next decade or two will be hurt by higher prices now.
So far Biden has kept the price of oil within the $80-100 range where we need it to be in order to propel the alternative energy switch, but not give hostile nations too much income from sales to the world. Its a delicate balance but they have done fantastic so far.
baffling
as I have said before, we can’t stop fossil fuels cold turkey. that is the false argument folks one covid try to use. I am willing to use and abuse fossil fuels now, to control cost and provide a smooth transition to renewables. this is also why some folks are so resistant to any funding of renewables right now. it is understand that a full transition today is not possible, but for it to work, a smooth transition over time is required. so the anti-renewables do anything to eliminate a smooth transition and force an abrupt change. it is the only way their argument against renewables can work. but with oil at $80-$100, we are in the sweet spot of this smooth transition. it still leaves gas in the the $3-$4 per gallon range, which incentivizes many consumers away from gasoline and towards electricity. and keeps EV’s viable.
CoRev
Just smiling at the idiocy and cognitive dissonance of the renewables zealots. EV purchases dropping, electricity pricing climbing, off shore wind losing money, coal use rising, fossil fuel use rising, etc. Your reliance on unicorn gas is an amazement.
James
Also Fed Chair Powell – please lower interest rates – so us working class people can afford to finance an EV. The new hybrid vehicles are impressive as well.
baffling
you will buy your new EV next year.
pgl
Back in June 2022 when gasoline prices hit $5 a gallon we had the Usual MAGA hatters (yes Brucie boy and little CoRev) going bonkers are how President Biden was an evil socialist and an OLD man. Yea – it all drill baby drill as absurd as that may be. Now that gasoline prices have come back to earth, there is dead silence from the Usual MAGA hatters. And the world is a better place.
OK – this was back in September and now but informative. The oil components of this gasoline price was only $2.11. But check out the high price of refining oil into gasoline which came to $0.73 a gallon.
Drill baby drill has little to do with this rip off but maybe some anti-trust enforcement could get this obscene refinery margin down.
;Refining margins have been steadily increasing since late 2020, as estimated by the difference between refiners’ acquisition cost of crude oil and wholesale gasoline prices. Estimated U.S. average wholesale gasoline margins increased from an average of 18 cents per gallon (cents/gal) in November 2020 to 33 cents/gal in February 2021.’
As I just noted, the refinery margin in Sept. 2023 was $0.73 per gallon which was one reason gasoline prices reached $3.84 per gallon. By November 20, 2023 gasoline prices fell by more than would have predicted by the oil price decline, which may be evidence that this obscene refinery margin has retreated just a bit.
Macroduck
Yu Yongding, an influential figure in Chinese economic policy, is urging immediate fiscal expansion:
Yu makes the uncontroversial assertion that weak growth and weak inflation indicate weak demand, and calls for fiscal and monetary expansion as a remedy. What about the debt overhand? Yu points to the composition of debt, mostly borrowing from banks rather than in the bond market, as evidence that more debt is manageable.
Yu warns of stagflation? The reporter and editor have mischaracterized Yu’s central point. There are no quotes from Yu in the article which mention stagflation. He may have mentioned stagflation, but we have only the reporters claim, and only as part of an extreme scenario. Similarly, “controversial” instead of “trusted” or “influential” looks like pure journamalism.
From my lowly perch, it looks like things are percolating in China. Making nice with Biden, talk of a shift toward increased demand-side stimulus, the “Singapore” social housing model all coming at once may be mere coincidence, but let’s hope not.
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) spread Thanksgiving cheer by falsely claiming that the price of buying a turkey has skyrocketed — and then compounded it by blaming the nonexistent phenomenon on President Joe Biden. In a post on Twitter, Stefanik claimed that “this Thanksgiving, Americans will pay 7.2 % more for their turkey because of Joe Biden and Bidenomics.” In reality, as CNBC reported recently, turkey prices are down significantly from last year, as the average price of a 16-pound bird has dropped by more than 5 percent compared to a year ago.
Could some fellow New Yorker take Stefanik to their local grocery store? Oh wait – most New Yorkers hate this lying ugly witch with a b. So yea – let her overpay for her bird.
Central banks are cutting interest rates at fastest clip in years. When will the Fed join them?
Investors have been waiting for central banks to start cutting interest rates since the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike of the cycle in March 2022. Now, it looks like it is finally happening: For the first time since January 2021, the number of central banks cutting interest rates has surpassed the number hiking them, according to an analysis from Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid. That is certainly a promising development for investors cheering for central banks to pull off a “soft landing” for the global economy, according to Reid and Dario Perkins, an analyst at TS Lombard.
JohnH
“ Bets on ECB Cuts Risk Prompting Hike Instead, Wunsch Says…’ I think markets are relatively optimistic today that they exclude the possibility that we have to do more or that we have to remain at 4% for longer,” said Wunsch.
“If we arrive at the conclusion that inflation is not going down fast enough, we’ll communicate it through our projection and through our communication,” he said.
But pgl is ever hopeful that rate cuts will significantly boost the value of his asset portfolio…
pgl
Gee – my mentally retarded stalker returnth. Dude – your emotional issues are getting way too serious.
joseph
What? They’ve put Larry Summers on the board of OpenAI? Could they come up with a worse misogynist sociopath than Summers? This is the sort of person you would want providing humane guidance for possibly one of the most socially disruptive technologies in history?
Interesting data showing many Europeans are paying $2 per gallon or more just for the excise tax on gasoline. And Americans whine when they have to pay more than $0.40 per gallon on excise taxes.
I would not be surprised if this will be the beginning of consumers being a lot less worried about inflation. Most of them are clueless that inflation is not the same as high prices.
What I find fascinating is that Saudi/Putin cutting production is not having the same effect this year. I wonder if investment in solar has some impact? https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60922 And, of course, EU moves to LNG and renewable energy.
Keep in mind that the world’s largest petroleum producer is ramping up production, helping to offset cuts elsewhere:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M
Almost certainly the result of Biden’s war on oil.
“the world’s largest petroleum producer is ramping up production”
US production up by almost 2 million barrels by per day since Biden took office!
And little CoRev and Brucie Boy told us that the Biden Administration was waging a war against Big Oil.
Yea I get the two of them lie more than even Trump.
There are a lot of factors keeping oil and gasoline prices down. Many being the result of Biden’s competent government.
1. Biden pushing oil companies to use all those drilling licenses they had already gotten but not using.
2. Biden reminding the Saudi government that there is a limit to their behavior if they want to be our friend (giving Javanka $2 billion is not enough).
3. Policies that have pushed US and EU to switch away from use of oil and hydrocarbon energy towards renewables and energy efficiency.
4. Biden’s push to have more oil and natural gas developed in countries not hostile to US.
Russia, and to a lesser extend the Saudis, are in a catch 22. Higher prices will give them more money here and now – but also increase the profitability of alternative energy projects. So their overall hydrocarbon income over the next decade or two will be hurt by higher prices now.
So far Biden has kept the price of oil within the $80-100 range where we need it to be in order to propel the alternative energy switch, but not give hostile nations too much income from sales to the world. Its a delicate balance but they have done fantastic so far.
as I have said before, we can’t stop fossil fuels cold turkey. that is the false argument folks one covid try to use. I am willing to use and abuse fossil fuels now, to control cost and provide a smooth transition to renewables. this is also why some folks are so resistant to any funding of renewables right now. it is understand that a full transition today is not possible, but for it to work, a smooth transition over time is required. so the anti-renewables do anything to eliminate a smooth transition and force an abrupt change. it is the only way their argument against renewables can work. but with oil at $80-$100, we are in the sweet spot of this smooth transition. it still leaves gas in the the $3-$4 per gallon range, which incentivizes many consumers away from gasoline and towards electricity. and keeps EV’s viable.
Just smiling at the idiocy and cognitive dissonance of the renewables zealots. EV purchases dropping, electricity pricing climbing, off shore wind losing money, coal use rising, fossil fuel use rising, etc. Your reliance on unicorn gas is an amazement.
Also Fed Chair Powell – please lower interest rates – so us working class people can afford to finance an EV. The new hybrid vehicles are impressive as well.
you will buy your new EV next year.
Back in June 2022 when gasoline prices hit $5 a gallon we had the Usual MAGA hatters (yes Brucie boy and little CoRev) going bonkers are how President Biden was an evil socialist and an OLD man. Yea – it all drill baby drill as absurd as that may be. Now that gasoline prices have come back to earth, there is dead silence from the Usual MAGA hatters. And the world is a better place.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
Regular Gasoline September 2023 Retail price: $3.84/gallon
OK – this was back in September and now but informative. The oil components of this gasoline price was only $2.11. But check out the high price of refining oil into gasoline which came to $0.73 a gallon.
Drill baby drill has little to do with this rip off but maybe some anti-trust enforcement could get this obscene refinery margin down.
I would hope this gets update:
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=47357#:~:text=Refining%20margins%20have%20been%20steadily%20increasing%20since%20late,November%202020%20to%2033%20cents%2Fgal%20in%20February%202021.
;Refining margins have been steadily increasing since late 2020, as estimated by the difference between refiners’ acquisition cost of crude oil and wholesale gasoline prices. Estimated U.S. average wholesale gasoline margins increased from an average of 18 cents per gallon (cents/gal) in November 2020 to 33 cents/gal in February 2021.’
As I just noted, the refinery margin in Sept. 2023 was $0.73 per gallon which was one reason gasoline prices reached $3.84 per gallon. By November 20, 2023 gasoline prices fell by more than would have predicted by the oil price decline, which may be evidence that this obscene refinery margin has retreated just a bit.
Yu Yongding, an influential figure in Chinese economic policy, is urging immediate fiscal expansion:
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3242318/outspoken-chinese-economist-yu-yongding-issues-stagflation-warning-beijings-fiscal-policies?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=3242318&utm_medium=share_widget
Yu makes the uncontroversial assertion that weak growth and weak inflation indicate weak demand, and calls for fiscal and monetary expansion as a remedy. What about the debt overhand? Yu points to the composition of debt, mostly borrowing from banks rather than in the bond market, as evidence that more debt is manageable.
Yu warns of stagflation? The reporter and editor have mischaracterized Yu’s central point. There are no quotes from Yu in the article which mention stagflation. He may have mentioned stagflation, but we have only the reporters claim, and only as part of an extreme scenario. Similarly, “controversial” instead of “trusted” or “influential” looks like pure journamalism.
From my lowly perch, it looks like things are percolating in China. Making nice with Biden, talk of a shift toward increased demand-side stimulus, the “Singapore” social housing model all coming at once may be mere coincidence, but let’s hope not.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/shamless-elise-stefanik-slammed-for-claim-about-skyrocketing-turkey-prices/ar-AA1knaYC?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=9b69b43db1624a77968f25a0b521d405&ei=12
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) spread Thanksgiving cheer by falsely claiming that the price of buying a turkey has skyrocketed — and then compounded it by blaming the nonexistent phenomenon on President Joe Biden. In a post on Twitter, Stefanik claimed that “this Thanksgiving, Americans will pay 7.2 % more for their turkey because of Joe Biden and Bidenomics.” In reality, as CNBC reported recently, turkey prices are down significantly from last year, as the average price of a 16-pound bird has dropped by more than 5 percent compared to a year ago.
Could some fellow New Yorker take Stefanik to their local grocery store? Oh wait – most New Yorkers hate this lying ugly witch with a b. So yea – let her overpay for her bird.
Central banks cutting interest rates?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/central-banks-are-cutting-interest-rates-at-fastest-clip-in-years-when-will-the-fed-join-them/ar-AA1kj27C?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=7e53cd76fc83415481b9a4fc0585e872&ei=6
Central banks are cutting interest rates at fastest clip in years. When will the Fed join them?
Investors have been waiting for central banks to start cutting interest rates since the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike of the cycle in March 2022. Now, it looks like it is finally happening: For the first time since January 2021, the number of central banks cutting interest rates has surpassed the number hiking them, according to an analysis from Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid. That is certainly a promising development for investors cheering for central banks to pull off a “soft landing” for the global economy, according to Reid and Dario Perkins, an analyst at TS Lombard.
“ Bets on ECB Cuts Risk Prompting Hike Instead, Wunsch Says…’ I think markets are relatively optimistic today that they exclude the possibility that we have to do more or that we have to remain at 4% for longer,” said Wunsch.
“If we arrive at the conclusion that inflation is not going down fast enough, we’ll communicate it through our projection and through our communication,” he said.
“If the markets don’t infer from this that it’ll be high for longer, then we’ll have to use our rate instruments and hike to get where we want to go.’
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bets-on-ecb-cuts-risk-prompting-hike-instead-wunsch-says-1.2000934
But pgl is ever hopeful that rate cuts will significantly boost the value of his asset portfolio…
Gee – my mentally retarded stalker returnth. Dude – your emotional issues are getting way too serious.
What? They’ve put Larry Summers on the board of OpenAI? Could they come up with a worse misogynist sociopath than Summers? This is the sort of person you would want providing humane guidance for possibly one of the most socially disruptive technologies in history?
Lord help us. We’re all gonna die.
https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/eu/gas-taxes-in-europe-2022/#:~:text=The%20European%20Union%20requires%20EU%20countries%20to%20levy,opt%20to%20levy%20higher%20excise%20duties%20on%20gas.
Gas Taxes in Europe
Interesting data showing many Europeans are paying $2 per gallon or more just for the excise tax on gasoline. And Americans whine when they have to pay more than $0.40 per gallon on excise taxes.