From The Hill:
“The only way this war ends is in a negotiated settlement. Every day that goes by while this war continues, more Ukrainians die, citizens and soldiers, more Russian conscripts die. I take no joy in that. More of Ukraine gets destroyed,” [Senator Ron] Johnson said. “So, the sooner that they reach a negotiated settlement, the better from my standpoint.”
Johnson said he thinks Russia will not lose the war against its neighbor to the southeast. The Wisconsin senator said he doesn’t “like that reality, but it’s true.”
In essence, because the Russian forces are so strong and effective (despite evidence accumulated over the past year and a half to the contrary), then we had best give up, and negotiate now, the sooner the better.
In this Foxnews clip from yesterday, Senator Johnson also talks about how a negotiated surrender would be one favorable to the Ukrainians because Putin would be afraid of a protracted guerrilla war.
More generally, Mr. Johnson wants more for border security in any agreement for funding Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.
* Théoden Reference is to reign during period of Grima’s tenure as security adviser.
The fact is that Ukraine depends on western support – but if they get that support, they can slowly wear down Russia. The GOPsters peddling Putin narratives are just wrong. The longer the conflict goes on, the worse Russia will be off. Even if Putin goes into full war economy after the election, he will only get a short term advantage (but doom the long-term ability to retain Russia as a regional power). The fact is that Russia will lose most of its hydrocarbon incomes in the next decade. At that time it will not be able to fund most of what it currently is funding in its budget.
ISW has a nice article on the cost of letting Ukraine lose:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine
We should keep in mind that the miniscule support we give them (a very small fraction of our annual military budget) is by far the cheapest way to keep Putin and Russia under control. Furthermore, the “cost” on paper is much larger than the actual cost because most of what we give them would have been allowed to rust away, if we didn’t donate it. The knowledge of how to fight Russian strategies and weapon systems is priceless. We have learned how they fight and what their weaknesses are without them gaining that same knowledge about us.
An interesting and rather thorough discussion of the options and possibilities. A lot more informed that the BS from Ron Jon and his minnie me JohnH.
ISW makes a number of presumptions that are at best wishful thinking motivated by hope.
Russia output of shells in particular are capable to supply operations.
Western production is roundly inadequate with no evidence of surging. How do “we” supply Ukraine?
My suspicion is that most of the US’ presidential drawdown is already spent, and next round will be paper “back orders” for much of the military aid.
Anonymous: If Russian manufacturing capacity is sufficient to supply campaign needs, then why are they buying and using defective North Korean shells?
I would buy shells bc I have stockage plans that were suspended.
I have seen claims that Russia has increased output in shells and related needs to keep going.
As in most data points we depend on sources not all can be trusted.
My point on presidential drawdown is assumption. But I know that stock in war reserves is funded by congress separate from peace time operating/training supplies. A lot of the $$ quote on military aid is cost to refill war reserves. Also how pentagon can find $$ bc they repriced the withdrawals.
My feel is the ISW laundry list is selling a Thucydides trap, a bit hotter than Cold War II.
I disagree with a lot of ISW. Who have been advertising Russian ineptitude since the start.
Never underestimate….
Ukraine need better support. They have only been given enough equipment so they are not defeated rather than beating russia.
They need better planes so they have air superiority and missiles so they can say to Russia if you target our power stations we wil ldo the same.
That is merely two examples.
Putin as Saruman eh. Grima kills Saruman in the end!!
“They need better planes”.
Where do those better planes come from? Where do the bombs/weapons they shoot come from?
Are 40 odd year old F-16’s from EU countries who are getting “unsuitable” F-35’s “better planes”? Forbes seems to overstate F-16 and understate Russian models who have a lot of upgrades including being ahead of US wrt GaN IC’s.
A “package” of say a dozen F-16’s requires a large on the airfield group of direct to the F-16 maintenance experts, more weapons ‘handlers’ and a boatload of ground support equipment, as well as a large pond of jet A-1 or equal jet fuel. A support chain back to US depots in Utah and Oklahoma and Lockheed. Given distances in Ukraine a number of KC 46 refuelers.
Pristine runway bc the F 16 intake is under the nose.
Lack of air dominance was one demerit obvious from June 2023 on.
Achieving air dominance is long term, expensive and at the end of a long supply chain.
as we push to promote renewables and eliminate hydrocarbons, we continue to put long term pressure on Russia. Russia will burn through its hydrocarbon assets wasted on a war it will not win. there will be nothing left once the war is over, and the world stops using hydrocarbons. yet another reason to banish fossil fuels in favor of renewables. Reagan would be proud.
“So, I’m trying to make sure that the Republicans in the Senate will deny cloture on any bill to provide funding for Ukraine that doesn’t have benchmarks that the administration has to meet before the funding flows,” Johnson told Catsimatidis.
Shorter RonJon. Support my racist agenda on immigration or Ukrainians will die.
Well, aren’t we all glad that we have a House Speaker who understands things at such depth? Any negotiation, no matter the circumstances on the battlefield, will produce the same result; everybody knows that.
The determination of Ukrainians to keep fighting won’t affect the outcome of negotiations. The determination of Ukrainians allies to provide support won’t affect negotiations. The loss of blood and Treasury for Russia won’t affect the negotiations. And the cost to Russia of the war that Russia started – twice – is of no advantage to the U.S. Right?
So glad Johnson understands this stuff and is working for what’s in the U.S. interest.
Yves Smith has a good recap of what has been happening: “Yours truly plans to write a broader post about the increasingly sorry state of the Ukraine conflict, at least from the Western perspective. Within a very short period of time, the messaging has changed from exhortations about the inevitability of Ukraine success to tight media focuses on itty bitty parts of the conflict to depict Ukraine as gaining ground, to now admissions not only that the great Ukraine counteroffensive failed, but that Ukraine itself will have to go on the defensive…
Ukraine is having multiple systems break down, and armed capability may not turn out to be the one that drives the timetable…
Other systems breaking down are government funding and the domestic economy. The loss of foreign welfare will turn Ukraine’s budget hole into a yawning chasm…
The economy was similarly in immediate and long-term dire shape. Many companies have been hollowed out by conscription. Many fields are similarly reportedly grown over. Citizens have fled to Europe and are not coming back. Money to repair Russia’s damage to the electrical grid last winter was largely looted.”
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/12/ukraine-flails-as-proxy-coalition-war-scheme-comes-apart.html
There reaches a point in each of the US’ string of pointless and futile wars where policy makers must decide whether to declare victory and leave (cut and run} or double down. In Korea, Eisenhower had the wisdom to cut and run. In Vietnam, Nixon doubled down for a while after the Tet offensive and intensely bombed North Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos…all to no avail. In Iraq there was David Petraeus surge. And in Afghanistan there were surges every couple years…all to no avail.
My guess is that Biden will try to double down, even in light of the failed counteroffensive. But that will only buy him time, and that path will be fraught. What the
Republicans have done is to expand the Overton Window to make it permissible to criticize the war and to question Biden’s prioritizing of Ukraine’s needs over those of the American voter. And so, the killing and destruction will proceed apace, even though it is becoming increasingly obvious that all this could have been avoided if the US had not sabotaged negotiations in 2022. Pointless and futile.
“My guess” is your attempt to be a supporter of the Russian invasion while parading as an anti-war crusader is growing more transparently hypocritical by the day.
You lied about a potential Russian invasion. You cautioned readers not to believe visuals and on ground reports of “corporate “media or any government reports. You insisted the damage done at Mariupol was minimal. You repeated the big lie of Russian attempts of denazification while insisting the Zelenskys were zillionaires in the making. In fact, it would take pages to list, muchless counter, your constant falsehoods.
You lie hourly, if not daily , as everyone here knows
Russian atrocities? Massive civilian deaths? Not a word.
You’ve been prompted to simply say the war was unnecessary, that it could be ended by the INVADERS return home. Silence. Ukraine needs to negotiate and all will be well.
You have no shame. And, somehow, you get more shameless by the post.
Noneconomist’s screed is exactly the kind of nonsense that war opponents have had to endure during every one of the US’ pointless and futile quagmires. And guess what? We were on the right side of history.
Johnny, why do you support the illegal invasion by Russia and the resulting death and destruction by Russia perpetrated on the Ukrainians? there is absolutely no ethical or moral defense of the Russian behavior in this conflict. what putin has demonstrated is that nato should have actually put boots on the ground and battled putin directly. instead Ukrainians are suffering and Johnny wants to continue their suffering and place them under Putin’s thumb.
Jonny boy supports Putin’s war crimes because he is trapped in the Kremlin ordered to do so lest Putin does not feed his little pet poodle his doggy treats.
You’re a war opponent?
OK, here’s your chance: denounce the Russian invasion without qualification. If you believe the war should end as soon as possible, state without hesitation or qualification that a Russian withdrawal would accomplish that.
Guess what? If you can’t do that, you’re still a fraud. Like always. And a laughably sad one at that.
Another day in JohnH world, another pair of pants burned by his continuous series of lies.
Dude – that “response” was weak. You are indeed a worthless little turd.
“Yours truly plans to write a broader post about the increasingly sorry state of the Ukraine conflict, at least from the Western perspective.”
Yves has neither the integrity nor the guts to discuss the “increasingly sorry state” of Putin’s war crimes in Ukraine. Neither does Putin’s pet poodle JohnH.
Putin found it unexpectedly difficult to take over Ukraine so instead he has found it much easier to take over the Republican Party.
Russian Ron “Lord Haw-Haw” Johnson has been laundering Putin disinformation for a long time – ever since he made that business trip to Moscow during the 4th of July 2018 – https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a33419403/ron-johnson-senate-investigation-russian-influence-campaign/ I say business trip because Ron started discussions to make a sweetheart deal to sell his share of the in-laws plastics company in 2018 conveniently right before the market tanked – . ” Johnson said the process of selling off his share of the company began as early as 2018,” https://wisconsinexaminer.com/brief/ron-johnson-sold-his-companys-stock-before-the-market-tanked/
But Russian Ron has to be careful with his pro-Putin yapping – he knows most of this foreign aid is being spend in the U.S. – a substantial amount at Oshkosh Defense https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/american-oshkosh-military-vehicles-reportedly-deployed-ukraine
BTW – Ron basically visits Wisconsin for closed door campaign events https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/05/26/ron-johnson-used-tax-dollars-trips-florida-home-capitol-wisconsin/9931923002/ and has mega-donors Uihleins and Diane Hendricks on speed dial to find out what kind of tax breaks they need https://www.wispolitics.com/2022/wisdems-icymi-billionaires-backing-ron-johnson-got-massive-tax-breaks-for-spend-millions-on-super-pac-backing-him/