Business Cycle Indicators at the Start of 2024

November monthly GDP is reported by S&P Global Market Insights, up 0.2 ppts, 2.6% annualized. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.

Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating preliminary benchmark (bold dark blue), implied level using Bloomberg consensus as of 1/3 (blue +), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP, 2nd release (blue bars), and GDPNow for 2023Q4 as of 1/3 (lilac box), all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS preliminary benchmark, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q3 2nd release incorporating comprehensive revisions, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (1/3/2024 release), Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.

Bloomberg consensus is for +163K NFP growth.

As of today, GDPNow for Q4 is 2.4% (q/q SAAR), S&P Global Market Insight is 0.9%, and GS at 1.4%. (NY Fed Q4 nowcast is 2.4%, while St. Louis Fed’s is 1.9%, both as of 12/29.)

4 thoughts on “Business Cycle Indicators at the Start of 2024

    1. Moses Herzog

      It appears Islamic State is taking credit. And some experts are saying the method of explosive doesn’t fit Mossad’s usual modus operandi. My apologies for the jump to conclusions.

      In other news:

  1. Moses Herzog

    Both of those reports above, which are factual, should be major topics on our evening news. But watch tonight. NBC, ABC, CBS, our networks with the supposed “liberal bias” probably won’t even mention this, much less detail it. 40 pharmaceutical advertisements in 30 minutes of broadcasting, a finale of some overweight policeman saving three kitties from the town drainage system, but nothing about MAGA ineptitude.

    This report on the trump family is what now qualifies for “Conservative values”.

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