From GasBuddy:
Source: GasBuddy accessed 1/3/2024. Red line at expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine, just to irritate JohnH.
In my book, a little too early to declare the “viberecession” over (as per this article), but still, something that should be remarked upon. The price is the same as mid-2021.
Since the core CPI (chained) is about 11% higher than in June 2021, that means the relative price of gasoline is 11% lower than then.
Addendum:
Figure 2: Price of regular gas in 2022$. Core CPI deflated. December CPI nowcastd by Cleveland Fed (1/3/2024). Source: EIA, BLS via FRED, Cleveland Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
In inflation adjusted terms, pre-pandemic Trump year levels.
GasBuddy?
pgl: EIA data only through 12/25, so yes, GasBuddy.
Didn’t FRED just tell us the price as of 1/1/2024?
Gasbuddy get it right in my metro area 98% of the time, and when they don’t it’s probably when the price shifted like 5 minutes ago.
I believe you. I was being a bit unfair to Dr. Chinn as he used Gas Buddy before EIA did their update. I relied on FRED which dates when they pulled the most recent EIA data and my comments came after the update.
Check out the update – Dr. Chinn not only did that in inflation adjusted terms but he used the latest EIA data. Well done as usual.
Pretty much the same as 12/22 reflecting the season nature of gasoline prices… more summer driving and higher cost summer blends starting in spring. Article from April, 2023.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/04/17/why-gas-prices-rising/11681232002/
Given all of the electronic engine controls, gasoline vapor trapping technology, and catalytic converters that are on virtually all vehicles in operation, it would be much more economical if there was one blend that could be used all year long across the entire country, but that might be too much to ask.
Gas prices are rising for many drivers: Here’s where gas is cheapest and most expensive???
Leave it to little Brucie to quote the price as of 4/17/2023 when it is early January 2024. Come on Brucie – Kelly Anne Conway deserves a smarter liar.
“Given all of the electronic engine controls, gasoline vapor trapping technology, and catalytic converters that are on virtually all vehicles in operation, it would be much more economical if there was one blend that could be used all year long across the entire country,…”
Nonsequitor. The economic consequences of having a single grade of gas is utterly separate from whether gas-powered cars have pollution control equipment.
Presumably, you intend to suggest that pollution controlled equipment obviate the need for multiple grades of gasoline. It doesn’t.
I don’t think Bruce is talking about grades of gasoline. He’s talking about the different blends – Summer and Winter blends.
See this:
https://www.convenience.org/Topics/Fuels/Changing-Seasons-Changing-Gas-Prices
Gasoline blends used in the summer months are different than the blends used in the winter. In the winter, fuels have a higher Reid vapor pressure, meaning they evaporate more easily and allow cars to start in colder weather. In the warm summer months, these evaporative attributes would lead to increased emissions and the formation of smog.
Maybe Brucie is trying to say we should either usual seasonally adjusted data or compare Jan. to Jan. Funny thing little Brucie forgot to mention. The early Jan. 2024 nominal price is LOWER than the early Jan. 2022 nominal price. And Dr. Chinn has drawn his graph in inflation adjusted terms.
Little Brucie’s sly attempt to discredit Dr. Chinn once again falls flat on its face.
“Gasoline blends used in the summer months are different than the blends used in the winter. In the winter, fuels have a higher Reid vapor pressure, meaning they evaporate more easily and allow cars to start in colder weather. In the warm summer months, these evaporative attributes would lead to increased emissions and the formation of smog.”
I have an idea – make Brucie boy user summer blends all year to cut down on his obnoxious emissions. Now he would not be able to start his car on the very cold Michigan winter days but in my view that would be a grand thing!
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW/
US Regular All Formulations Gas Price
Now this source says a gallon of gasoline cost $3.09 per gallon as of New Year’s Day which is the same as it cost in late June 2021. Not that I trust GasBuddy but the post’s statement is spot on.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/chris-christie-these-are-the-two-factors-keeping-republicans-loyal-to-trump/ar-AA1mphub?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=8b34c02f2b014fc3ae691f579fec5652&ei=10
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie told MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Wednesday that there were two factors keeping Republican politicians loyal to former President Donald Trump. When asked why even Trump rivals such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley were reluctant to really attack him, Christie replied that there were two factors at play: “Fear and ambition. So the fear part of it is that all of them treasure their titles,” Christie said of Republican lawmakers. “And so, they treasure their titles more than they treasure the honor that’s given to them by the people to actually have those titles. They don’t want to lose them and all worried about being primaried by someone who would have Donald Trump’s endorsement.”
Fear and ambition are 2 out of 3 factors. Krispie Creme left out the key 3rd factor – RACISM. Trump is a flaming racist as is DeSantis and Nikki Lightweight.
“More Signs that Power in the Labor Market Has Shifted from Workers back to Employers”
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/01/03/more-signs-that-power-in-the-labor-market-has-shifted-from-workers-back-to-employers/
That much ballyhooed tight labor market sure did deliver those real wage gains just as mainstream economists’ catechism advertises it to happen in tight labor markets! Average real hourly earnings rose 0.66% over 4 years (woo-hoo!) and 0.16% per year, well below the 10 year, annual real growth rate of 0.7%. Meanwhile the employment cost index rose more slowly than inflation in the last four years, despite claims by some that you to be living on another planet to believe that!!! Hello, FRED, what planet do you live on? https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2018/02/are-wages-increasing-or-decreasing, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1cKEd
And to think that all those magnificent real wage gains occurred because labor was in a strong position to DEMAND higher wages!!!
Oh well, all “good” things have to come to an end. The labor market is shifting power back r to employers, who will now again be free to simultaneously rebuff workers’ DEMANDs and raise prices to consumers…not that economists will deign to notice…
Workers only salvation will be if the rate of inflation and energy prices drop below the wage increases that Corporate America has already budgeted.
Johnny, Johnny, Johnny, as sloppy and dishonest as ever. If you had bothered to check the quits data, you’d have found that quits, as measured by either the rate or the number of quits, are historically high:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dDGa
Quits have come down from the record level reached during the pandemic, but are still as high relative to previous cycles. The rest of what you wrote is word salad; I can’t tell what you meant to say, other than “America BAD!!!”
And, by the way, layoffs were at an 11-month low in November. Your link points out low layoffs, but you ignored it. Your link points out high job openings, but you ignored that, too. There is really only good news in the data, but you pretend otherwise – like always.
Folks, Johnny has been doing this “the labor market is BAD!!!” schtick forever. He doesn’t care whether wages are strong or weak. He only cares that he can find some way to say they’re weak – like linking to Wolf Street because of its headline, no matter the reality. He ignores job growth, because job grwth has been strong, and Johnny’s job is to make us all feel bad, so Biden will lose the election. Biden has resisted Putin, Trump didn’t, so Trump has to be re-elected. And Johnny wll tell any lie to get that done, simple as that.
As I noted in another comment Jonny boy trusts the horrific writing from Wolf Richter. Wolfie presented the data fine but his interpretation of the data was his usual stupid babbling. Which of course Jonny boy fell for hook, line, and sinker.
My employer gave me a 10% salary increase this year. It was a salary adjustment process. Instigated by my employer. Facts on the ground seem to contradict your assertions, johnny.
Still waiting for johnny to explain why i got an additional pay raise due to tight labor markets. Johnny says it is not happening. But i offer proof that it is occurring, numerous times, and get nothing but silence from johnny. Why? Because johnny is not interested in informed discussion on this site. Johnny is only interested in promoting his propaganda and moving on, like a troll. Just like he wont admit that to stop the futile and pointless war in Ukraine, all he needs to endorse is that putin and russia withdraw from their immoral invasion and leave ukraine. But he will not do it. He is not antiwar. He is pro putin.
Remember this?
Ronald Reagan v. Jimmy Carter: “Are You Better Off Than You Were Four Years Ago?”
President Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan debated just once in the contest of 1980.
Trump turns this on its head by asking are you better off than 5 years ago? How clever to skip over Trump’s mishandling of COVID19! Yea – only a MAGA moron would fall for this.
Why does shell charge about a dollar a gallon more than everybody else in texas? Quite interesting. Shell stations have been a high outlier for a month now.
@ baffling
Great question. Not just in Texas. It’s the same here, and actually that’s been true for YEARS. I don’t know how the hell they stay in business. How do they even sell cigarettes when no one gets gasoline there?? The only logic I can make out of it is they (I don’t know) refuse to put ethanol in the gasoline so they can charge higher?? It’s not an in pennies difference, sometimes it’s multiple dimes difference in ONE gallon of gasoline. It’s one of the strangest things I have ever seen in my life, and I was starting to think I was the only person on Earth who noticed this
i noticed after filling up a tank from shell, then driving a mile down the street and seeing how much i was ripped off. it was not a location thing. it was a brand thing. the only shell stations with cheaper gas are the ones located across the street from another brand, and even then they often are a bit more expensive there as well. strange.
I may do a web search on this and see what turns up. There has to be some “reason” even if it is a illogical or nonsensical reason, it’s a definite pattern with the brand Shell, as you say, so it’s not random, there is something involved there.
To repeat facts about the relationship between the Michigan Sentiment index and other indicators mentioned here in the past:
U Michigan Consumer Sentiment hasn’t been as highly sensitive to gasoline prices in the pas as itt is now, though this picture suggests otherwise after the 2008 recession:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dDMy
There were other things going on after 2008, like a weak labor market, which were undermining sentiment. The oddity is that today’s strong labor market hasn’t done much for moods.
The unemployment rate had always been a good (inverted) match to Michigan Sentiment, but not now:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dDOk
In fact, the “misery index” (U3 unemployment rate plus the inflation rate) is an even better match for Michigan Sentiment, or was until the Covid pandemic:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dDP7
As has also been pointed out before, it is mostly Republicans who currently skew sentiment downward relative to the misery index. Partisanship is virulent these days, and by golly, Johnny means to make the most of it!
Jonny boy reads Wolf Richter’s headline “More Signs that Power in the Labor Market Has Shifted from Workers back to Employers”
But forgets to read the data Wolfie provided which was the latest JOLTS report. Nothing in the report justifies this STUPID title – nothing. But Jonny boy falls for it hook, line, and sinker. Oh yea – Jonny boy dusts off some FRED blog from 2018.
Wow – Jonny boy. You have taken a huge lead for 2024 troll of the year. Keep the dumbass comments coming as you can finally win it!
Kevin Drum reads the WSJ on the spread between 30 year mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields but is not buying the WSJ explanation for this higher than normal spread:
https://jabberwocking.com/the-mortgage-spread-is-coming-down-slightly/
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/the-hidden-force-pushing-mortgage-rates-down-5e4146b6?st=3idtqnutmo2h64c&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
The Hidden Force Pushing Mortgage Rates Down: The differential between 30-year mortgage rates and benchmark Treasury yields has been shrinking for eight straight weeks
“These days, investors have lots of reasons to demand more yield. For one, there is the risk that mortgages extended today won’t be around tomorrow. If rates fall, as many expect, homeowners will refinance into lower-rate loans, cutting off investors’ streams of income.”
Now I’m not in the habit of giving the WSJ any credit but its statement here is basic option theory as in the risk that borrowers will prepay high interest rate long-term mortgages if long-term rates fall in the future. I would have thought someone as bright as Kevin would have picked up on this.
Of course we should expect some dimwitted rant from JohnH as this moron never got basic option theory.
Which country paid Trump the biggest bribes?
https://jabberwocking.com/which-country-paid-trump-the-biggest-bribes/
‘According to Democrats on the House Oversight Committee, foreign governments trying to curry favor with Donald Trump spent nearly $8 million dollars in stays at Trump’s hotels during his presidency. As a public service, I have made a chart out of the top ten sycophants with the columns colored in beautiful Trump gold:’
Kevin Drum notes the PRC spent over $5.5 billion on Trump hotels.
EEIA report for week ending 12/29:
Comm’l crude stock +2.5% y on y
Gasoline stock +6.4% y on y
Distillate stock +6% y on y
Kerosene +16%
Net import crude 2285 thousand bbl/day cumulative avg
Net import -1954 ( (-) is net exports crude and petroleum products)
Nat petrol reserve -2.5% y on y (about 3 million bbl in negotiation for refill)
Gasoline and diesel could come down some at the retail.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
West Coast excluding California $4.13 a gallon
California? $5.18 a gallon
Yea – gasoline is expensive here. But at least I’m not sucking in NYC emissions anymore!