Forecast finalized in November (roughly same time as CBO’s projections, released in February).
First, GDP:
Figure 1: GDP (black), Administration forecast (red squares), CBO projection (tan), February Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue), GDPNow of March 7 (light green square), all in billions Ch.2017$ SAAR. Levels of GDP in Administration and GDPNow calculated using growth rates and levels of GDP available at time of forecast/nowcast. Source: BEA 2023Q4 2nd release, CBO (February), Philadelphia Fed (February), OMB (March), and Atlanta Fed (March 7), and author’s calculations.
Given the similar information sets available at early November when the two forecasts were generated, it’s not surprising the Administration and CBO have a similar outlook on GDP, even taking the fact that CBO’s projection is conditioned on current law, and the Administration’s is conditioned on the President’s budget. In fact, the Administration’s GDP forecast is virtually indistinguishable from the November SPF for 2023 and 2024.
Both the CBO and the Administration forecast higher 10 year Treasury yields than economists in the SPF. (The Administration trajectory is a quadratic interpolation to quarterly data, since the Budget only reports annual yields.)
Figure 2: Ten year Treasury yields (black), Administration forecast (red line), CBO projection (tan), February Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue), all in %. 2024Q1 actual yield is based on January and February data. Administration quarterly forecasts interpolated from annual data using quadratic match. Source: Treasury via FRED, CBO (February), Philadelphia Fed (February), OMB (March), and author’s calculations.
Here’s the table summarizing the forecasts.
Source: OMB (2024).
Well folks, it appears the EU bureaucracy can move faster than America’s House Republicans can—or will:
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/eu-plans-to-allocate-ukraine-3-billion-euros-1710197677.html
In other good news:
https://www.ft.com/content/96fa04fd-6afc-43c8-9661-fb02d0617f1b
Also, it turns out that historically pro-Nazi occupation of Pope stays the course:
https://www.voanews.com/a/kremlin-nato-chief-at-odds-over-papal-suggestion-of-ukraine-russia-talks/7523327.html
Some job vacancies just tend to attract the same type of losers.
Go light on the Pope!
Pope Francis could review “Just war” dogma (St Augustine) and find the one which say “pushing a nuclear power into a corner threatens nuclear exchange which is unjust to innocents down wind.” Actually killing too many innocents is one part. See Gaza.
War of empire are hardly consistent with Christ’ s teaching
That’s why you don’t “negotiate” with animals like Putin. The blood slaughter then becomes never-ending. But apparently that’s not what bothers Catholic leadership. The Catholic leadership doesn’t mind blood slaughter as long as the blood doesn’t splash up on their feathers.
War is an evolution of negotiating. diplomacy by other means, ‘achieving national aims’.
So, it is always war with thugs!
I doubt St Augustine had a rule that thugs make war “just”.
What criteria to judge a “thug”?
Is it a valid national aim to war on thugs, 6000 miles away?
It’s not a “war on thugs”. It’s assisting an ally in defending themselves from aggression from an amoral madman named Putin. You need to read a respected newspaper so you know what the facts involved are. You sound like you work for Russia’s foreign affairs dept.
Good piece in today’s WaPo by Yulia Navalnaya. Headlined: “Putin isn’t a politician, he’s a gangster.”
“Look at Putin as the leader of a mafia group. You will grasp his brutality, cynicism, penchant for violence, fondness for ostentatious luxury—and his willingness to lie and kill. All his talks about religion, history, culture, and politics might mislead Westerners.. But in Russia everyone knows that gangsters have always loved to flaunt large crosses, pose in churches, and present themselves as fighters for higher justice which in their understanding boil down to a professional criminal’s ruthless code of conduct.”
Not surprisingly, in true Godfather style, all Putin wants is to wet his beak in Ukraine. All he’s asking for is a mere 20% of the country’s territory. That and hoping Zelensky gets too close to an open window or that he might somehow accidentally “sleep with the fishes.”
All, of course, because he was, uh, backed into a corner”.
The 3-month average bill rate remains at 5.1% in 2024, same as 2023 – no Fed rate cut. That’s like the CBO. Ten-year yields average 30 basis points higher in the 2024 estimate than in 2023, with real rates 160 basis points higher. That’s somewhat lower than the CBO estimate, but still odd.
The 1.3% (or 1.7%, take your pick) real GDP growth estimate is very similar to CBO’s 1.5%, which indicates a considerable recession risk. So like the CBO’s set of estimates, the White House is looking for no rate cut and a rise in long rates while the economy is growing at a pace that’s historically associated with recession.
Here’s real GDP and inflation-adjusted ten-year rates:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ideW
As I pointed out when Menzie recently posted CBO’s estimates, both the CBO and White House are forecasting a combination of real-economy data which is consistent with recession and interest rates which -aside from continued curve inversion – are consistent with good economic growth. I don’t see rising real ten-year rates and sub-1.5% real GDP growth very often in the FRED link. Both CBO and White House forecasts look to me like a deviation from historic norms.
Any chance the administration knew what OMB would publish and didn’t want to be accused of publishing a rosy scenario?
Republicans have been saying they “wanted to clean the swamp” ever since it became the Orange Abomination’s phony slogan. As with many things Republicans have requested since Hillary’s incompetence as a politician showed itself in 2016, Republicans should be careful what they wish for:
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/11/bloodbath-at-rnc-trump-team-slashes-staff-at-committee-00146368
He’ll keep cutting, and wait until he’s done with the Republican party personnel. Mike Pence and the hangman’s noose will look like an afternoon picnic when he chooses his first Republican targets in 2025. He’s coming after all you Republicans. Get ready for trump’s Braunhemden to hit the hell trail.
The good news about Trump raiding the RNC and firing all the knowledgeable and competent people there, is that it will hurt GOP candidates. A lot of people who would not donate to Trump has been donating to RNC instead – no more. A competent RNC will distribute its money to candidates who have a chance of taking a seat if they get a little help. A Trump RNC will give the money to Trump and a few of his best ass kissing MAGA GOP friends. So republicans will have less money and waste more of what they have – what’s not to like about that. Go Laura.
wholeheartedly agree. I think the trump takeover of the rnc is wonderful. first let him empty the coffers for his court defense fees. then spend the remaining money on maga hatters. in the long run, it simply weakens the republicans. keep donating to trump and the rnc, you fools! serves you right.