Continues to rise, according the the Phildaelphia Fed’s coincident index, just out. The divergence with GDP continues to persist.

Figure 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan), real wages and salaries linearly interpolated, deflated by national chained CPI (sky blue), GDP (red), coincident index (green), all in logs 2021M11=0. Source: BLS, BEA, Philadelphia Fed [1], [2], and author’s calculations.

The 3 month annualized growth rate of the Wisconsin coincident index is 3.7%; y/y it’s 1.2%.

Note there’s a stark contrast between the GDP series, and the other series. The GDP series is calculated based on the income definition of GDP, then using national level sectoral value added data to calculate the equivalent GDP. In fact, GDP as of the 2023Q1 release was much higher, relative to 2018Q1, than the corresponding benchmark-revised data for the corresponding quarter. See the figure below:

Figure 2: GDP in Ch.2017$ (bold black), GDP in Ch.2012$ from 2023Q1 release (blue), coincident index (green) and real wages and salaries (tan), all in logs, 2018Q1=0. Wages and salaries deflated by national Chained CPI adjusted by author using X-13. NBER defined peak-to-trough national recession dates shaded gray. BEA, BLS, Philadelphia Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.

What is causing the gap between the most recent estimates of Wisconsin GDP and the other indicators? I suspect it’s related in part to the gap between GDI and GDP. At the national level, the gap is about 2% (in log terms).

Update, 1:41 Pacific:

I have an op-ed in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel today. I didn’t pick the title. I would’ve titled it  “Wisconsinites are more “meh” than one would expect from economic conditions”.