Continued growth (report):
Figure 1 (updated): GDP (bold black), May SPF median (light blue), GDPNow of 5/16 (blue square), New York Fed nowcast of 5/17 (green triangle), St. Louis Fed nowcast of 5/17 (tan square), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q1 advance, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed via FRED, and author’s calculations.
Unlike the Nov ’23 and Feb ’24 trajectories, the gap between the Feb ’24 and May ’24 is trivial.
Figure 2: GDP (bold black), May SPF median (light blue), February (tan), November 2023 (light green), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q1 advance, Philadelphia Fed.
The SPF indicates a reduced probability of negative q/q GDP growth in Q2 and Q3, from 23.9% to 14.4% and 25.6% to 18.7%, respectively.
Expectations of recession fall for any quarter as that quarter comes closer in time. From higher-than-random to just about random. Fed policy and the yield curve probably account for this pattern.
bleach blonde bad built butch body! Jasmine Crockett takes on Marjorie Taylor Greene!
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/17/politics/crockett-greene-contentious-committee-meeting/index.html
I’m on Fake Eyelashes’ side. Challenge to fight 4pm after school north of the merry-go-round. Near the old armory.
I could tell some rhymes I learned on the playgrounds of Lawton Oklahoma just for laughs, but we won’t go there. Fort Sill military base was nearby, do I need to explain more about people who are attracted to the U.S. ARMY??
Empty has met her match.
Looking at the data so far, it sure doesn’t look like a recession coming, at least not to me. What am I missing?
I’ll tell you a funny story pgl I think many people here think me a sort of “rogue loser”. Maybe you did also until I knew your name, yes?? I won’t be offended if you admitted that much. See, I won’t be offended because In see myself, I see myself from OUTSIDE myself. My Dad was in the US. Army roughly 1944, took the train from his hometown into the Army. Never hesitated, But my Dad wasn’t a kind of guy to throw himself into death, He ended up in place after basic training, Fort Hood?? 2-3 places for training. The guy who made assignments (again 1944) was very coincidentally his friend.. Not like Dick Cheney “his friend” REALLY coincidentally his friend. He said to my Dad, “where do you think you could be of good service to our nation and do a job you are good at??” MY Dad said, “Clerical” or something Stateside training. So my Dad got that job (and more dangerous jobs) stateside. But here is somethign I will say about my Dad. Everytime he was in Church or a public place and they said “If you are a World War II veteran stand up and be recognized” My father NEVER stood up. He NEVER stood up when WW II veterans would be recognized. My Dad never stood up because my Dad was never “in the shit” and he knew that. Just imagine all the homeless guys pretending to be “Vietnam Vets” now and my Dad. Different worlds. Different mentalities. My Dad would never do that. My Dad always taught us these kind of things. These “silent” kind of things. Don”t take things that aren;t yours./
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqqpcWKOgEY
I am amused that MJT can allege another woman is stupid when she is clearly a sandwich short of a picnic. A bit like Trump calling some else fat!
you yanks have ben in a very long recession ( sarc)
OK, you SOB Trampis, you got us to plead gullty again. Mercy brother. Don’t you think the orange guy is sensitive skin for us?? like a sunburn?? GUlty GUilty. You got us on THIS one. Wow man. Wow, just really WOW. I thought mainland Chine had an inferiority complex. Just Wow Man, You got us on THIS one. Wow;. GUilty, if I say we’re guilty you run home to Mom and say “we got them Mommy!!”?? “Auussies win!!!!”Wow man.