Nominal consumption, PCE deflator m/m at consensus, nominal income at +0.2% vs. +0.4%. Here’s the picture of key NBER BCDC indicators plus monthly GDP:
Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2017$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 advance release, S&P Global Market Insights (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7/1/2024 release), and author’s calculations.
Addendum, 10am Pacific Time:
Alternate indicator for nonfarm payroll employment, manufacturing instead of industrial production, coincident index instead of monthly GDP, and GDO instead of GDP also suggest continued growth through June 2024.
Figure 2: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (bold dark blue), civilian employment adjusted to CBO immigration through mid-2023 (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers in Ch.2017$ (bold green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2017$ (black), consumption in Ch.2017$ (light blue), and Coincident Index (light pink), GDO (blue bars), all log normalized to 2023M04=0. GDI used in calculating GDO for 2024Q2 estimated by predicting 2024Q2 net operating surplus using GDP, lagged surplus, lagged differenced surplus, 2021Q1-2024Q1.Source: BLS via FRED, Federal Reserve, BEA 2024Q2 advance release, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.
Note the adjustment for civilian employment only extends to mid-2023. Reported changes in civilian employment used thereafter. Hence, the adjusted level of civilian employment does not really show up in this normalization to 2023M04 (for normalization to 2021M11, see this post).
Note that three other alternative indicators — real retail sales, vehicle miles traveled, and heavy truck sales (which is highly volatile), we don’t see big drops.
Figure 3: Real retail sales (teal, left scale), vehicle miles traveled (brown, left scale), and heavy truck sales (light green, right scale), all in logs, 2023M04=0. Retail sales deflated by chained CPI, seasonally adjusted by author using X-13. Source: Census, NHTSA, BLS, via FRED, and author’s calculations.
Any thoughts on the Cleveland Fed, Median PCE Inflation statistic?
The monthly percent change in the PCE median has stayed at 0.3% since February 2024.
https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/median-pce-inflation
AS,
You’e seen the San Francisco Fed’s dispersion data?
https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/data-and-indicators/pce-personal-consumption-expenditure-price-index-pcepi/#:~:text=The%20personal%20consumption%20expenditure%20price,by%20consumers%20throughout%20the%20economy.
Another look unto the details of price changes.
You may have heard Trump is scared to debate Harris on September 10. Now it seems there’s a different reason – he may be a little busy:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-s-sudden-debate-withdrawal-linked-to-looming-criminal-sentencing-legal-experts/ar-BB1qGHvd?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=9f14ceab32e14323b763e6e8d548f574&ei=9
New York Supreme Court Judge Juan Merchan is expected to deny Donald Trump’s motion to dismiss his 34-criminal count conviction on September 6, and sentence the ex-president on September 18. That likelihood may be impacting his sudden decision, announced late Thursday night, to pull out from the ABC News September 10 presidential debate he previously agreed to.
Hey – if they lock up this felon maybe they can hold the debate in his prison!
So far I think it makes more sense that he is simply scared of a fair debate against a former prosecutor. I have seen that he is only going to debate her if he can have his friends at Fox run the debate. He’s chicken when it comes to strong woman who refuse to be bullied.
The whole thing will be appealed for at least another 3-4 years – so it will unfortunately be some time before he goes to jail.
‘Articles Were Wrong’: CNN Fact Checker Says Media Incorrectly Labeled Kamala ‘Border Czar’
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/articles-were-wrong-cnn-fact-checker-says-media-incorrectly-labeled-kamala-border-czar/ar-BB1qDQ1i?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=08426da0a0774997ba1bec812e64480e&ei=15
Yea the original press reporting was wrong but at least they had the courage to admit their mistake. Ricky boy Stryker made the same charge but we know this weasel of a troll will not admit he got this wrong.
The Kamala Harris Surprise
I had long thought she couldn’t beat Donald Trump. That’s wrong. In a 50/50 country, she can.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-kamala-harris-surprise-i-thought-she-couldnt-beat-trump-but-now-think-she-could-fbdcaebc
Never been a big fan of Peggy Noonan but on this we agree.
Funny thing is that the GOP spend the last 6 months centering debate around the issue of age, fumbling with words and incoherence. Now democrats just need to turn that one around and declare bi-partisan agreement. GOP set themselves up – now they are scrambling to do a 180 turn and find whatever to divide democrats and attack Kamala. So far the Vance dufus has pissed off childless cat ladies – and Taylor Swift is one of them.