From CBO report released yesterday.
The budget deficit would’ve been larger in the absence of the surge:
Figure 1: Baseline Federal budget balance to GDP ratio (blue) and counterfactual without immigration surge (tan), both by fiscal year. 2023 observation is actual. Source: CBO Budget and Economic Outlook update (June), and CBO (July 2024), and author’s calculations.
Nominal GDP would’ve been smaller as well.
Source: CBO (2024).
In 2023, the boost represented about 1.5% of counterfactual nominal GDP.
Interesting analysis of how the immigration surge is increasing tax revenues more than spending. Of course Trump and his MAGA morons like Bruce Hall deny this and in fact claim immigrants make the deficit rise. Why do they lie about this. Well their two big talking points are:
(1) THE DEFICIT!!!!
(2) Immigration is criminal.
It seems (1) and (2) contradict each other when one realizes the facts. Which is why Faux News is not telling its MAGA moron viewers about this report.
Most immigrants, whether documented or not, come to America wanting to work. Why are many of the recent arrivals that have been bussed to cities just loafing around while those from Ukraine working? Well, some are fighting to prevent the first group from getting work visas and blocking their ability to get under-the-table work, while the other has a special exception to get accelerated work visas!
There was a decline in the total number of undocumented immigrants after 2007. Why? What happened then? Is what happened then still impacting us now? The right’s view on immigration for the last 20 years has been demonization and nonsense.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/07/12/how-pew-research-center-counts-unauthorized-immigrants-in-us/
https://jabberwocking.com/a-short-primer-on-understanding-conservatives/
A short primer for understanding conservatives
Conservatives sometimes say confusing things. I’m here to help with a short, and sadly incomplete, primer on conserva-speak.
Useful list whenever reading the serial BS from the likes of Bruce Hall!
https://x.com/MikeZaccardi/status/1815384325656916310
‘Goldman’s Twitter Sentiment Index jumps to its highest mark since early 2020’
Gee – I did not know Goldman’s had this index. Maybe a post on it?!
That’s a bigger move than is often seen from Goldman’s index. Could be noise. The last time a big move like that happened was Autumn and early Winter of 2022-2023, when the Goldman index also diverged from Michigan. The S&P turned higher starting in November, 2022.
U Michigan tends to reflect equity market performance, but doesn’t show much evidence of the recent new highs in stock indices. Could it be that the Twitter index is a better measure of pure financial performance, without the heavy political overlay we know Michigan has?
Interesting comment. There was also this comment over at Kevin Drum’s place:
just eyeballing it, seems like the twitter index has more frequent updates and umich might just be lagging.
CNN data guru says JD Vance ‘making history’ as first VP pick with negative favorability following convention
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cnn-data-guru-says-jd-vance-making-history-as-first-vp-pick-with-negative-favorability-following-convention/ar-BB1qyZQD?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=68e493181b5d4576a79de46e7c5bdb0b&ei=13
Following the convention, the VP choice typically has a positive 19 rating. JD? Negative 5.
But hey he is stupid, racist, and generally obnoxious so he’s Trump kind of guy!
As said previously, JD Vance is the Dan Quayle of Sarah Palins.
Remember when Quayle’s wife (who was a lawyer) said she stayed home to bake cookies. Now Hillary used her time in the office making plenty of money to buy Mrs. Fields cookies. Yea they cost a bit but they are really good.
First generation immigrants come here to work hard and fulfill the American Dream. Their children, however, are immediately assimilated into American culture and become the slack-jawed, jaded apathetic whiners who can’t stand manual labor so they invent robots to do menial tasks. This how you end up with Skynet.
DeLong at Project Syndicate, discussing the difference in behavior between our two major parties:
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-election-democrats-focused-on-values-republicans-on-selfish-interests-by-j-bradford-delong-2024-07?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Nothing much new, but he has rounded up a handy set of quotes from both Haley and Vance, from prior to the time they prostrated themselves before Moloch.
“the virtue of asabiyya: a willingness to leave your back bare to protect the backs of your comrades, knowing that they will have your back in return.”
Yea – our modern Republicans like Haley and Vance do not have this virtue. I also like how he took out our pathetic press:
“the American press corps now faces a test of its own. Will it relentlessly press the “Is he competent” question, as it did with Biden? Or will it continue its standard operating procedure of interviewing ill-informed, easily grifted people in diners, covering Mar-a-Lago court intrigues, and saying as little as possible about the damage that another Trump presidency would do to the United States and the world?”
Biden has retire from the presidential race because of concern about his age and his poll numbers.
Nicki Haley, back before she bowed to Moloch, said “the first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election.” Do we have reason to believe she was right?
Here’s some polling data on public sentiment toward Trump staying in the race:
https://x.com/APNORC/status/1813607518163411126?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1813607518163411126%7Ctwgr%5E43b03611472c0bbfae41491dd77d2d482b844621%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fbuckscountybeacon.com%2F2024%2F07%2Fap-norc-poll-about-60-percent-of-americans-want-trump-to-withdraw-from-presidential-race%2F
Turns out, 57% of the public wants Trump to drop out. That includes 51% of independents and 21% of Republicans.
This shouldn’t be a surprise, given Trump’s persistently low approval numbers.
Hey, does anyone recall what percentage of votes Haley was typically winning in Republican primaries?
Can you just imagine having JD Vance as the Commander in Chief? I bet our European allies would beg us to leave NATO if this Hilberry became President.