GDP 2nd Release for Q2

17 Replies

Revised up 0.2 ppts, 0.2 ppts above consensus. Final sales up 0.2 ppts. GDO rises 2.1% q/q SAAR.

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDO (tan), and GDP+ (green), GDPNow of 8/26 (sky blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP, GDO based on 2nd release. GDP+ iterated on 2019Q4 GDP level. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed (July release), Atlanta Fed, author’s calculations.

 

Figure 2: Quarter-on-Quarter growth of GDP (bold black), GDPNow of 8/26 (sky blue square), final sales (red), all SAAR. GDP based on second release. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, author’s calculations.

So, GDP and final sales growth exceeds trend in Q2, and GDPNow as of 3 days ago is at trend. GDP > final sales implies some retrenchment in Q3 given inventory accumulation.

 

17 thoughts on “GDP 2nd Release for Q2”

      1. pgl

        Since no one agrees with your latest hit and run BS, it would have been nice had you made an economic case for this position. But don’t bother as we know you have zero intelligence.

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      2. baffling

        actually, monetary policy is very tight. the correct path forward is a cut. the question is by how much. I prefer half a point, but a quarter point should be minimum. you will induce a recession if you do not cut soon. not sure why a recession should be your preferred outcome?

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  3. pgl

    Am I doing the arithmetic right? Real GDI is almost 2.7% below real GDP. Maybe there’s a paper along the lines of the Mystery of Missing Income.

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    2. Macroduck

      I think pgl is looking at the difference in levels, which is 2.76%, while GS is looking at differences in Q/Q change.

      The difference in levels is persistent over several quarters, so lagging estimates of interest payments probably won’t do much for the difference in levels, even after initial revisions.

      https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1thhQ

      Reply ↓
      1. pgl

        “I think pgl is looking at the difference in levels”.

        Thank you as that is precisely what I was doing. I could have been more explicit in how I wrote it.

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  5. pgl

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-reason-bill-gates-buys-farmland-across-america/ss-AA1pEKHe?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=e415a774df9949f0b2368bc1a09b3c78&ei=9#image=4

    Assuming this link works, the first thing you’ll see is Bill Gates’s ugly face and a story about how he and other very rich people are buying farmland. Read on and you will see:

    The growing concentration of land ownership among billionaires and large conglomerates is a concerning trend. Gerli highlights that the number of farms in America has drastically declined from over 6 million nearly a century ago to just 1.9 million today. This consolidation has led to a situation where more than 50% of U.S. crop output is controlled by large agricultural companies, with small farmers producing less than 15%. The loss of local and regional autonomy as land ownership becomes more centralized is a worrying development that could have long-term implications for the agricultural sector and rural communities.

    This sounds bad. But hey – maybe Apple Inc. will finally start producing apples, which would make Bruce Hall happy.

    Reply ↓
  7. Macroduck

    Off topic – Israel has expanded it’s war against Palestinian civilians to the Northern West Bank:

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/largest-in-2-decades-israeli-army-launches-major-military-operation-in-northern-west-bank/3314912

    Israel’s government claims that Iran is behind resistance efforts in the West Bank, but that claim is being questioned even by Israeli analysts. Israeli forces have killed over 600 West Bank Palestinians since the war against Palestinians began, with the result that resistance movements are growing. If Iran is involved, that involvement is opportunistic, feeding on opportunities created by Israel:

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/28/israel-launched-a-massive-assault-on-the-west-bank-why-and-why-now?traffic_source=rss

    While reporting by major U.S. news outlets reads mostly like Israeli government press releases, some western new organizations are doing actual journalism:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/aug/29/the-guardian-view-on-israels-west-bank-seizure-causing-harm-to-itself-and-others

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    1. Moses Herzog

      Yup, enjoyed this in kind of a sardonic way, thanks for the share.

      It’s funny you mention this. Just today (Saturday morning) I was in the drive thru of the financial institution I have my savings at. Guy pulls up next to us in the adjoining drive thru lane, small blue car ( didn’t get the make). On his driver’s side door he had like a picture/sign that said (paraphrasing) “Donald trump is coming to extract revenge…… and Americans are coming with him.” with trump in a cowboy hat and a six-shooter at his side. Driver of the blue car was wearing his red dunce cap. White male, couldn’t have been a day younger than 55, being as kind as I can.

      But I was at the hospital about 5 days, eating over-priced crap food and sleeping on a horrible chair performing murder on my spine, elderly relative having their gallbladder removed. They didn’t know what the deal was at first so took some time. But anyways…… she has one nurse. Former “nurse practitioner” (looked like she had had major cosmetic surgery on her face that hadn’t gone well at all, it required every molecule of self-control I could muster to stop my eyes from bulging out when looking at her face) She defended trump after we made a few disparaging remarks about trump, saying that “at least trump didn’t ridicule Biden for having Alzheimer’s”. I gave up the fight at that point, then we had another nurse (I’m presuming LPN, they tend to be the dumb ones) who basically said the FDA was out to kill all Americans and that people shouldn’t get inoculations, they should just let immunity happen as it spreads person to person through the air. Those were two nurses working at a large Catholic hospital. One claimed she had been a nurse 20 years, the one who destroyed her own face said she had been a nurse 30 years.

      This is Oklahoma, if I am out of my house I can’t throw a small pebble in a random direction and not hit one of these idiots.

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  9. pgl

    Forgive me but my damn newsfeed signal out some honest reporter at CNN arguing with some Trumpian blonde bimbo over whether Kamala Harris was the “border czar”. Yea I know – yada, yada, yada. But part of bimbo’s prepared remarks was how Trump had our economy roaring by drill, baby, drill. The CNN host cut her off noting we are domestically producing more oil and gas now than under Trump.

    That’s when bimbo claimed gasoline prices are 50% higher than under Trump. Well yea – gasoline prices were very low during the pandemic because the economy was in the tank.

    Maybe bimbo does not remember this but I’m sure Moses does. Back in the summer of 2018 nominal gasoline prices were nearly $3 a gallon. Yea they are nominal 10% higher today. But wait – the general price level is 20% higher than it was 6 years ago. Hey bimbo – let us do the arithmetic you never learned to do. Inflation adjusted gasoline prices are 10% lower now than they were 6 years ago.

    OK – rant over. I hope I did not insult too many people.

    Reply ↓

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