Conference Board’s Confidence Index exceeds consensus (103.3 > 100.9), with July index revised up. Here’re August readings for confidence, sentiment and news.
Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (tan, left scale), both demeaned and normalized by standard deviation (for the displayed sample period); and Shapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Daily News Sentiment Index (black, right scale). The News Index observation for August is through 8/25/2024. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: U.Mich via FRED, Conference Board via Investing.com, SF Fed, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Here’s a close-up on what has happened to sentiment since the Democratic Presidential candidate has switched.
Figure 1: Change since July 2024 in University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Democrats (blue), in Consumer Sentiment – Republican (red), and Conference Board Consumer Confidence (chartreuse), Source: U.Mich, Conference Board via Investing.com, and author’s calculations.
Movement in sentiment has diverged for Democrats vs. Republicans.
Addendum, 8/28:
Torsten Slok (8/19) provides a picture of small business optimism, as reported by NFIB.
Look who is selling their Trump Media stocks:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/truth-social-exec-dumps-stock-as-price-plummets/ar-AA1pwpwc?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=a276b875088a42a78346dc8a6621ed6c&ei=41
The executives at former president Donald Trump’s Truth Social venture are officially starting to cash out of its meme stock. According to a recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) CFO and treasurer Juhan Phillip has already sold a whopping $1.9 million worth of company shares. CEO Devin Nunes and COO Andrew Northwall joined in as well, selling chunks of their holdings. Meanwhile, Trump is likely also getting ready to offload his 114 million TMTG shares — roughly 60 percent of the company’s outstanding stock — as soon as next month. The six-month lockup period determined by the SEC is set to expire as soon as September 20, clearing the way for Trump to pull out.
Share price down to $21.
Turns out, company executives’ sales are a repurchase by the company rather than sales to third-party “willing buyers”. Since the company is bleeding cash, these buy-backs are funded with working cash. So, as expected, the Super Poisonous Avarice Conspiracy created to buy Trump Media is just a way of fleecing the rubes. Who’d have guessed?
SPAC is usually defined as Special-purpose acquisition company but Super Poisonous Avarice Conspiracy is more appropriate!
Do I get this right that even though they are not allowed to dump their stocks on the free markets before trump begins doing it on September 20’th they are allowed to sell them to the company?
It would be really sweet if they are using their power over the company to front-run Trump. Out-conning the con man.
You demeaned the index? What did it ever do to you?
Give Kevin Drum credit for an interesting chart in this post:
Per capita GDP around the world
https://jabberwocking.com/raw-data-per-capita-gdp-around-the-world/
According to the International Monetary Fund, per capita GDP in the US is currently $85,000. This figure is adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, so it takes into account differences in living standards throughout the world. Here’s how everyone else is doing … The US is the richest large region in the world and the fastest growing except for China and India—both of whom are still far behind us.
Europe’s income per capita has not grown as fast as the US and it is now only 70% of ours. But of course our MAGA moron Bruce Hall will do his usual blame Biden BS by noting the US is not growing as fast as China – saying both economies are “comparable”. Never mind per capita income in China is less than 27% of per capita income in the US.
I may have noted earlier that Kroger had over $150 billion in sales in 2023. It seems Albertsons had almost $80 billion in sales in 2023. From its 10K filing:
As of February 24, 2024, we operated 2,269 stores across 34 states and the District of Columbia under more than 20 well known banners including Albertsons, Safeway, Vons, Pavilions, Randalls, Tom Thumb, Carrs, Jewel-Osco, Acme, Shaw’s, Star Market, United Supermarkets, Market Street, Haggen, Kings Food Markets and Balducci’s Food Lovers Market.
Anyone who argues this merger would not reduce competition is either a liar or lacks a brain.
we have a local Randalls, can walk to it, and seems never to be busy. not sure how it stays in business, but like the fact it is so close and convenient. down the street further, driving distance, is an HEB that is full from morning till night. serve same population. HEB seems to be a very well run business in texas. up north, I used to enjoy wegmans. both are privately held, I think. bigger is not always better I guess.
Off topic, but good to hear: it looks like Iran is in the market for an oil-for-nukes deal.
There are a few complications. First, the legislative authority for the U.S. to engage in the deal runs out in about a year. Second, the original deal, that Trump walked away from, is no longer workable; a new deal needs to be negotiated. So we need to get going before legislative authority runs out.
Trump walked out of the first deal because Obama negotiated it, and anything that Obama did Trump had to undo. Except even Trump wasn’t short-sighted enough to overturn Obama care. So odds are Trump wouldn’t follow through on negotiations. December is a little early to expect a completed deal, so that’s another reason to vote for Harris.
Oh, and since Netanyahu is totally opposed to a deal with Iran, we should definitely do it.
Iran needs cash for conventional arms more than it needs nukes, given how badly Israeli nukes are at deterrence.
USS Abe Lincoln carrier battle group just arrived in the NW Indian Ocean. Joined the Roosevelt carrier group which is in the gulf of Oman. Lincoln group left the Pacific command without a carrier! For at least a month!
Maybe the two carrier groups will keep the Strait of Hormuz open, better than Roosevelt did for the Red Sea, off Aden!
Didn’t some Brit expert say the Houthi beat the US Navy.
There’s a lot more than arms at play in Iran’s decision. Youth unemployment is roughly 23%, in a country where the average age is just 33 years. Remember those huge anti-government demonstrations? Iran is more than just a supporter of armed groups; it has a population to deal with and things aren’t going well.
youth employment is also very poor in Asia. young people today are being left behind in large numbers. why so many young people are not employable, I do not know. are they just lazy? society is not worried about them? future economic growth is limited? to me, it indicates a divergence between the haves and have nots. what can a poorly educated high school graduate expect from the future? but it is not good, and will continue to contribute to populists such as trump into the future…
What Iran really need is raw materials so they can produce more arms themselves. They have been handing their own weapons over to Russia and anti-israeli forces in the Middle East. But Russia can only pay back in oil/gas and the others cannot pay anything.
Both Ukraine and the Houthi forces have demonstrated how limited the power of a navy is these days. The future is in missiles and drone wars, not big ships. Ukraine has build up a lead on that and just began their own production of new missiles. Put those on the F16 jets and they can be shot much further into Russia than anything they currently have and are allowed to use for attacks on Russian soil.
I’d make one adjustment to your statement. Ukraine and the Houthis have shown how limited naval power is in restricted waters. Bringing a big, expensive target near land-based forces is mucho risky these days.
Not saying naval ships are just as useful in the open ocean today as twenty years ago; I don’t have a clew. Just that operating near shore has gotten lots harder.
Before the days of naval artillery, ships were just buses and trucks for troops. Men and munitions traveled farther and faster on water than on land, just like everything else did. Vikings, the best naval warriors of their age, had better buses than everyone else. The Roman’s were so bad at conventional naval warfare that they installed a Corvus or two on each naval vessel, essentially turning a naval battles into a melee – Romans were good in a melee.
Artillery and aircraft turned ships into weapons against land-based targets. Suddenly, massive firepower could show up anywhere there was deep enough water. That’s still the case, but the weapon has to survive to be useful, and that’s getting harder.
Trump’s latest scam!
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-hawks-digital-trading-cards-during-election-campaign/ar-AA1pxpBW?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=a89533111a3647eab506a303123cf2de&ei=13
Trump Hawks Digital Trading Cards During Election Campaign
Trump is using his break from election campaigning to hawk a new batch of digital trading cards. The former president on Tuesday announced the release of the fourth round of his non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, with this series called the “America First” edition. It features 50 illustrations of Trump in various poses, including one striking image of the Republican presidential nominee in an Iron Man-style suit. On his Truth Social platform, Trump said the cards were “back by popular demand.” They cost $99 each. “These cards show me dancing, even me holding some bitcoins,” he revealed.
I can only imagine how excited little Ricky Stryker must be! At those inflated prices, the entire set would cost little Ricky almost $5000. But poor Ricky blew his entire life’s saving on his Harris short. Quick guys – can we start a GoFund page so Ricky can get off checking out Trump in an Iron Man suit?!
“Zuckerberg admits that the White House pushed to SUPPRESS HUNTER BIDEN LAPTOP STORY (& much more!) IN OTHER WORDS, THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WAS RIGGED,” he wrote on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday morning, after Zuckerberg’s letter became public.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mark-zuckerberg-s-election-season-gift-to-republicans/ar-AA1pxJCJ?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=e621c2d3a05e4964b7966ef315287dd7&ei=53
There are lots of problems with this fake story. Unless Biden was President in 2020. Was he?
Yes Trump is getting very weird, even for a person with advanced dementia. This is not the first time he seem unable to remember when he was president.
How much is Tyson Foods paying Barron’s to write this stupid trash?
Food Is Getting Cheaper. The ‘Price Gouging’ Fight Has Nothing to Do with It.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/food-is-getting-cheaper-the-price-gouging-fight-has-nothing-to-do-with-it/ar-AA1pyMOQ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=f3223fd0a6ca403881eca32753407ca4&ei=28
Commodity food prices—including wheat, soybeans, and other agricultural goods—are falling fast. That is good news for consumers, who are already seeing what they pay at the grocery checkout aisle level off. Consumers can thank a host of factors including excess supplies and good weather—just not the political fight over “price gouging.” While the stock market is near record highs, agricultural commodities face a bear market. Corn recently traded at $3.68 a bushel, according to near-month futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade. That is down 22% year to date and 55% from its 2022 high. Wheat is down 19% this year, and 64% from its 2022 high. Falling prices reflect an abundance of U.S. corn and other crops. Corn prices hit decade highs in 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine snarled supplies. Prices have fallen steadily since, as demand for U.S. corn in places like China slowed, and U.S. growers faced competition from growers in Brazil and elsewhere in South America.
One more time for these mentally retarded fools. The discussion has been over the prices of meat such as chicken, beef, and bacon. Now it is great for consumers that corn prices have fallen but our diets consist of a lot more than corn.
And BTW you ever wrote this, farmers do not send packages of chicken directly to the grocery store. Live chickens have to be processed before we go to our local Safeway to buy dinner.
Now I get Barron’s have never had a great reputation for writing on economics but come on – do you have to be even dumber than Bruce Hall and CoRev?
Economic journalism is full of poorly concealed editorializing. For much of the period of low inflation, Bloomberg had an obvious editorial policy of writing that inflation was just around the corner. It was a constant in BBG’s economic reporting, making their reporting wrong on the outlook for years. These days, we routinely hear from journalists that the Fed has succeeded in bringing down inflation when Fed policy had no beneficial effect on supply constraints which were at the root of inflation. We’re now being told that a weakening labor market is a good thing.
I understand that journalists feel compelled to explain, but their explanations are very often naive and misleading.
that is why readers here appreciate folks like you on this site, md. it is helpful for somebody with expertise to point out flaws and fallacies, given the amount of misinformation that is intentionally pushed into the world theses days. thanks to folks like you and prof chinn. you are doing your part.
Cutting the head of a dead whale to take it home for study is weird – but this is JFK Jr. so we are not shocked.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr7rj432835o
But making it a family outing and strapping the head on top of your minivan – are you freaking kidding me!
Great guy to put on the Trump transition team and determine who is best qualified to be in charge of our military, FBI and health and human services.
first trump chooses vance. then he brings on Kennedy jr (rfk, not jfk). you just can’t make this sh!t up. Harris should make trump own that Kennedy endorsement.
Taphonomy is an under-appreciated qualification for high office. ‘Bout time somebody took an interest.