For GDP, no recession on the short horizon:
Figure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September median forecast (blue box), NY Fed nowcast (red triangles), SPF August (tan line), WSJ July (light green), in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q2 advance, FT-Booth September survey, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, WSJ, and author’s calculations.
There’s been a shift upward in the FT-Booth survey GDP level (implied q4/q4 2024 growth has risen from 2.0% in June survey to 2.3% in September). Given Q2 advance growth, this implies 2.4% in 2024H2 (SAAR).
Figure 2: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September median forecast (blue box), 10%ile/90%ile (gray +), FT-Booth June median forecast (light blue box), in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2024Q2 advance, FT-Booth September survey, and author’s calculations.
Neither the median nor 10%ile paths are suggestive of recession. The modal response is for a recession in 2026Q1 onward, as in June’s survey.
Source: FT-Booth.
The proportion of respondents that thought the recession would start in 2024 has dropped from 12% to 7%, while the proportion that thinks the recession will start in 2026Q1 or later has risen from 52% to 56%.
Check out:
Question 12: If the Harris or Trump economic platforms were to be enacted, which do you think would be more inflationary in the medium term?
Question 13: If the Harris or Trump economic platforms were to be enacted, which do you think would produce larger federal budget deficits in the medium term?
Trump wins both contests in a landslide!
I saw a couple of press reports as to this survey but none of the lame reporters could be bothered to provide a link. You did. Thanks!
It’s time for holiday shopping forecasts:
“With the fewest number of days between Thanksgiving and Christmas since 2019 and 43% of consumers carrying more debt than they were in 2023, retailers should prepare for an uphill battle in terms of shopper conversion.”
https://www.salesforce.com/news/stories/holiday-predictions-2024/
“Sales are likely to increase between 2.3% and 3.3% this season versus the 4.3.% increase from the 2023-2024 season.
“Though disposable personal income has been growing steadily this year, it is growing at a slower pace than the 2023-2024 season. The end to pandemic-era savings will also weigh on consumer spending growth. And so will high-credit card debt as they approach the holiday season.”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/shopping/2024/09/12/holiday-shopping-forecast-spending/75163925007/
The y/y % gains are nominal, so perhaps smaller holiday selling gains than overall GDP gains.
We’ll get Halloween spending data soon, a rough guide to willingness to spend for the holidays.
North Carolina and Georgia are now considered toss-up states in the presidential race:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4879003-tightening-race-north-carolina-georgia/
Just to preen a little bit – I told ya thus was going to happen back on August 24:
Election prediction oddity: North Carolina’s Republican governor is polling 14 points behind his Democratic challenger:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4845247-north-carolina-governor-poll-mark-robinson-josh-stein/?tbref=hp
Recent polling shows North Carolina as a toss-up in the presidential race, and the polls+pundits map at 270-to-win show NC leaning toward Trump. This seems at odds with polling in the governor’s race, unless there is going to be ticket splitting on a massive scale.
Holiday shopping over time is probably driven by demographics. As the cohort of young children grows, so does holiday activities. Demographics drive college enrollment as well. Enrollment starts to drop after this year because the college cohort shrinks. In general, our demographics are not great since the Great Recession.
Great or not great depends on what you think is important. The west has a shrinking population. Most of Asia has a shrinking population outside of India. Even India is not growing so fast. Sub-Saharan Africa is growing, but at a much smaller rate. Latin America is shrinking for the most part. The human population is still increasing, but it could peak and start to decline in the next century or so. This is only a problem if the economy is built on requiring constant absolute growth. I don’t know how to retool to focus on per-capita growth, but if we can do that, it means that a much smaller population can live better while consuming fewer resources. Getting there won’t be pretty. I’m probably stating the obvious, as usual.
AI will be very useful as we navigate poor demographics in developed nations. proper implementation of AI is similar to adding higher quality workers (both blue and white collar, incidentally) while simultaneously improving efficiency and profitability, per capita. the countries and industries that apply it best will benefit the most. AI is a major disruptor over the next decade.
As I have stated in recent comments here (in a semi-embarrassing way actually) I have always been interested in forecasts in many different disciplines. Economics, finance, sports, meteorological, astronomical, etc. I think it’s normal. Knowing the future or being able to put probabilities on events of the future give humans a kind of a sense (real or false) of security.
Kind of like your future certainty of that tulane win?
Quiet. There will be no truth-telling here that reflects on me in a negative light.
i have a soft spot for tulane and new orleans. but they made a mistake leaving the SEC decades ago, because the competition was too stiff. vanderbilt never wins either, but they rake in the profit sharing year in and year out even when they lose. tulane will never again be able to compete consistently at a high level because they cannot afford to spend the money on football and basketball.
Tulane should join the Ivies. That’s more or less where they are headed anyway.
academically, tulane is not close to being ivy league caliber. they also do not have an endowment that allows them to enter such a league. athletically, they have a problem. they cannot compete with the Div 1 schools, but are unwilling to move down to Div II or III. Which is really where they should be competing. if you are not in one of the big Div 1 conferences, the value of remaining in that division is questionable going forward. tulane, and new orleans, does not have enough wealthy alumni to properly support a competitive Div 1 program. they are not unique in this criticism either.
Check out
The Last Dog in Springfield (Donald Trump song parody)
Ala Youtube (Patrick Fitzgerald).
You’ll be glad you did!
It baffles me that people argue trump is more trustworthy on the economy, considering he oversaw a 30% crash in the stock market and the highest unemployment since the great depression. Seriously, giving trump kudos on the economy is simply ridiculous. We are lucky the damage was not more significant the last time in office. Ever look at the trillions of dollars he added to the debt? Budget deficits as far as the eye can see. Just a little reminder of the chaos he brought to this country.
China really killing it on some stats lately.
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-direct-investment-yoy
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/housing-index
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/fixed-asset-investment
I’m wondering…… if they’re losing a lot of “joint venture” cooperation (“we trade false promises of access to Chinese market to morons who want to give us free technology leaps”), who are Beijing going to steal all their ideas from?? Guanyin?? It appears that “Fat Buddha” and “Waving cat statue guy” are really all out of new ideas.
Do not think that it is unrealized the maga crowd promoting the pet thing in springfield understand this says pet dogs are more important than black immigrants in our society. This just reeks of racism and social injustice. And it is a sad indictment on our country that so many republicans take this view. Trump has been a terrible influence on our people.
donald trump has not “influenced” anyone. He has given permission for low-educated Americans to externalize beliefs they already had.
Vance, Bash get into heated back-and-forth over Springfield
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/vance-bash-get-into-heated-back-and-forth-over-springfield/ar-AA1qCkJL?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=b2c91e25c10d4ea9b620fb99e7174418&ei=12
JD Vance is confronted with his vile racist lies that has led to violence in Springfield Ohio and how does JD respond? Blame Kamala Harris.