16 thoughts on “High Frequency Prices in Presidential Prediction Markets”
Macroduck
Context:
The gap between Harris and Trump in polling averages has been narrowing. Recently, the average has dipped below 3% advantage Harris. As the Harris advantage has narrowed in polling, it nearly disappeared in PredictIt betting. (They’re listening, Moses.)
During the debate, Harris blew out by 6 cents, half gain for Harris, half loss for Trump. Liquidity effect? Probably, but the Harris gain mostly persisted in the second hour.
Taylor was holding her cat. Read her Instagram post as she is proud to be a childless cat lady. Of course she might have been protecting her cat from one of Trump’s immigrants looking for his dinner.
Even Fox News scored this as a big win for Harris. But of course Trump had to enter the spin room and declare this to be his best debate ever. Yea – he is that clueless.
Trump media shares are off over 13% so far today, and we’re down as much as 15% earlier. There really does seem to be an assumption that Trump will use the presidency to direct money toward his media company. As his re-e!action odds suffer, so does Trump media’s expected flow of future earnings.
In 49 out of 50 states last night, abortion was the most Google term. Only exception – Ohio. Something about immigrants stealing and eating cats and dogs.
hey rick stryker, are you listening? because your golden boy looked and sounded OLD last night-which he is. too old to be elected president. and he is incoherent. and angry. he used to lie and know it, now he cannot distinguish between his lies and reality, which makes him dangerous. trump has reached a point where his cognitive abilities are almost child like. he did not answer a single question last night, because his brain could not process both a question and an answer simultaneously. his simply repeated the phrase “millions of illegal immigrants who are murderers” to any question posed to him-probably because his brain could only memorize a few syllables at a time.
last night, donald trump sounded alot like uncle moses after three bottles of vodka while sitting on a giant hemorrhoid. angry and incoherent.
I believe it is important to continue to point out the fact that not only is trump old, he is acting very old. he has poor memory, confusion, anger issues and irritability. Donald Trump can no longer distinguish fact from fiction in his life. which is why traditional republicans are not only voicing their opposition of trump, but actively advocating for Harris as president. the list is long. liz Cheney, dick Cheney, Romney, bush, Rumsfeld, McConnell, Ryan, mccarthey. all have warned of the dangers of trump and embraced others. trump’s entire cabinet believes he is unfit for office. everybody is bailing on Donald Trump as unfit for office. there is not a single military leader who embraces another round of trump leadership. it is time for both democrats and real republicans to turn the page to a brighter future, away from the chaos and anger of the maga movement. nobody wants to relive the trump years again. economic chaos, pandemic, riots. what a dismal era we can move away from. starting in November.
Context:
The gap between Harris and Trump in polling averages has been narrowing. Recently, the average has dipped below 3% advantage Harris. As the Harris advantage has narrowed in polling, it nearly disappeared in PredictIt betting. (They’re listening, Moses.)
During the debate, Harris blew out by 6 cents, half gain for Harris, half loss for Trump. Liquidity effect? Probably, but the Harris gain mostly persisted in the second hour.
Biggest news of the night- Taylor Swift has endorsed Harris.
Just another childless cat lady 😉
Taylor was holding her cat. Read her Instagram post as she is proud to be a childless cat lady. Of course she might have been protecting her cat from one of Trump’s immigrants looking for his dinner.
Even Fox News scored this as a big win for Harris. But of course Trump had to enter the spin room and declare this to be his best debate ever. Yea – he is that clueless.
Was this before or after Trump told us immigrants were cooking the dogs for dinner?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/
Trump Media stock took another beating in after hour trading.
Trump media shares are off over 13% so far today, and we’re down as much as 15% earlier. There really does seem to be an assumption that Trump will use the presidency to direct money toward his media company. As his re-e!action odds suffer, so does Trump media’s expected flow of future earnings.
I follow DJT daily – just for the giggles.
The Russiophile chorus from right wing bloggers were partially funded by Russia.
https://www.vox.com/politics/370323/tenet-media-russia-what-happened-tim-pool-dave-rubin-benny-johnson-lauren-southern
Sad part is that some of them didn’t need to be paid at all. They were dumb enough to get hooked without there even being a worm on it.
In 49 out of 50 states last night, abortion was the most Google term. Only exception – Ohio. Something about immigrants stealing and eating cats and dogs.
hey rick stryker, are you listening? because your golden boy looked and sounded OLD last night-which he is. too old to be elected president. and he is incoherent. and angry. he used to lie and know it, now he cannot distinguish between his lies and reality, which makes him dangerous. trump has reached a point where his cognitive abilities are almost child like. he did not answer a single question last night, because his brain could not process both a question and an answer simultaneously. his simply repeated the phrase “millions of illegal immigrants who are murderers” to any question posed to him-probably because his brain could only memorize a few syllables at a time.
last night, donald trump sounded alot like uncle moses after three bottles of vodka while sitting on a giant hemorrhoid. angry and incoherent.
Give little Ricky boy a break. He is trying a new dinner recipe which involves cooking the neighbor’s dog. The right mix of spices is a bit tricky.
I believe it is important to continue to point out the fact that not only is trump old, he is acting very old. he has poor memory, confusion, anger issues and irritability. Donald Trump can no longer distinguish fact from fiction in his life. which is why traditional republicans are not only voicing their opposition of trump, but actively advocating for Harris as president. the list is long. liz Cheney, dick Cheney, Romney, bush, Rumsfeld, McConnell, Ryan, mccarthey. all have warned of the dangers of trump and embraced others. trump’s entire cabinet believes he is unfit for office. everybody is bailing on Donald Trump as unfit for office. there is not a single military leader who embraces another round of trump leadership. it is time for both democrats and real republicans to turn the page to a brighter future, away from the chaos and anger of the maga movement. nobody wants to relive the trump years again. economic chaos, pandemic, riots. what a dismal era we can move away from. starting in November.
Trump keeps saying he won the debate. His alleged evidence? He’s up in the polls after the debate? Wow – he is delusional.
“No evidence there were transmitters in Kamala Harris’ earrings during debate”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/no-evidence-there-were-transmitters-in-kamala-harris-earrings-during-debate-fact-check/ar-AA1qptjS?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=7a4f1824b7cb47ec97704188c320f4f7&ei=11
Team Trump is now claiming Harris cheated? No MAGA morons – your boy lost because he is old, stupid, and a flaming racist.