Instantaneous PCE Core Inflation below 2%

With August data:

Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services supercore (light green), PPI core (red), and PCE core (green), per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4. Horizontal chartreuse dashed line at 2% PCE inflation target (for CPI should be about 2.5%). Source: BLS, BEA, Pawel Skrzypczynski, and author’s calculations.

7 thoughts on “Instantaneous PCE Core Inflation below 2%

  1. pgl

    It is time that monetary policy turns expansionary.

    Oh wait – fake Ph.D. EJ Antoni just cooked up some nonsense about past M2 growth and why that means inflation is about to take off.

  2. pgl

    Trump’s new election guru!

    ‘Bruce Zuchowski, the sheriff for Portage County just southeast of Cleveland, posted the suggestion to his social media account on Sept. 13, when he talked about Harris’ campaign and border policies. “When people ask me…What’s gonna happen if the Flip – Flopping, Laughing Hyena Wins?? I say…write down all the addresses of the people who had her signs in their yards,” Zuchowski wrote in the Facebook post. “Sooo…when the Illegal human ‘Locust’ (which she supports!) Need places to live…We’ll already have the addresses of their New families…who supported their arrival!”‘

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/he-has-made-me-feel-unsafe-ohio-sheriff-s-kamala-harris-facebook-post-draws-complaints/ar-AA1rlqHh?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=f4501bb31f4c4dc8b9478156a57f278e&ei=14
    Kamala Harris Facebook post draws complaints

    Complaints – you think? How does such a disgusting POS like Zuchowski even have a job in law enforcement?

  3. pgl

    Harris went to the border to talk about immigration. Part of her discussion noted Trump did NOTHING of substance on this issue. She also noted drug overdoses went up a lot during Trump.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db491.pdf
    Drug Overdose Deaths in the United States, 2002–2022
    Merianne R. Spencer, M.P.H., Matthew F. Garnett, M.P.H., and Arialdi M. Miniño, M.P.H.

    Check out Figure 1. Age-adjusted rate of drug overdose deaths, by sex: United States, 2002–2022

    She’s right about Trump. But what about the Biden-Harris years. It seems this flattened out in the first two years and my understanding is that this is now going down.

    Wait – MAGA morons claim the opposite. Of course we know their real forte is LYING.

  4. Macroduck

    Off topic – The Couch Potato is snuggling up to Christian Nationalism:

    JD Vance is preparing to link arms with Lance Wallnau, self-declared prophet and a prominent figure in the Christian Dominion movement:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/27/vance-lance-wallnau-event

    Wallnau has told his followers that it’s OK to let the cat out ofthe bag about taking over the country when talking to other Dominionists, but not to the general public. Lying about their intentions is part of the plan. So really, just a Republican? Wallnau also more or less thought up the “god’s instrument” excuse for supporting Trump despite his unchristian behavior.

    Here’s more on this power-hungry creep:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lance_Wallnau

    I kinda think the Couch Surfer isn’t doing this to round up vote for Trump. Trump already has the votes of hypocritical Christians. I think this is Vance (and his master Peter T.) making friends with Christian crazies further own purposes. The Sofa Seducer is, after all, the potential face of the Right-wing Reich, the maybe annointed one of the GOP rich elite. Vance has to prove he can swallow Dominionist malarkey. Or else.

  5. James

    We know that the U.S. will be challenged by more extreme weather events in the future – lives lost and mounting economic costs – but no questions of the Presidential candidates about how they will deal with climate change – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-27/helene-dumps-rain-on-millions-of-us-homes-that-lack-flood-insurance
    Harris/Walz constantly mention need to meet the challenge of climate change in stump speeches and Harris/Biden admin has made historic investments in renewable energy and reducing emissions that she plans to continue and Walz has lead the way at the state level in reducing emissions and implementing efficiency standards –
    Can one of the serious journalists at the NY Times ask Donald Trump to explain the greenhouse effect and why it is vital that we start working to zero emissions? You will get a incoherent rant about sharks and boats and climate change is a hoax. Or he will try and sell you a ersatz fancy watch for $100,000 or a cheap commemorative coin for $100 (Folks – we have reached late stage Republican party – where the GOP leader rants incoherently about past grievances and uses his time on the national stage to grift his base selling trading cards, coins, bibles, and junk knickknacks.)
    When do voters in Southern red states start realizing that they are on the front lines of extreme weather events caused by climate change and it is costing them lives and massive economic costs? When do they reject GOP political leaders that refuse to deal with the challenge of climate change?

  6. pgl

    Just picked up a copy of The Handmaid’s Tale (1985). I was told it is the perfect description for how Trump and Vance sees the role of women in America.

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