Headline from CNN.
Though the number of troops committed by DPRK will be limited, North Korea has effectively crossed the Rubicon. Europe traditionally has been North Korea’s gateway to the West and was seen by Pyongyang as more “neutral” than the United States. North Korean diplomats are stationed in most European capitals, and the level of interaction in general (pre-pandemic) has been fluid, much more so than with the United States, South Korea (ROK), or Japan. But North Korea’s decision to send troops to kill Europeans will not easily be forgotten in European capitals. Thus, this tactical move by Kim will have long-term consequences for EU-DPRK relations.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said “If they do deploy to fight against Ukraine, they’re fair game. They’re fair targets.” (CNN)
The shift to a bipolar political world may not be accelerating, but effects of the shift are sure are piling up. China and Russia are a special class of countries, actively undermining post-WWII norms and big enough to matter. They have clients like North Korea which see little hope of benefit from avoiding offense to democracies when their benefactors are so actively giving offense; better all-in than half measures.
There is now a huge gap into which a new non-aligned movement can fit itself, playing the two sides off against each other. Clinton, Bush and Obama all worked to create closer ties with India, but that didn’t do a thing to prevent India from doing business with Russia during Russia’s war on Ukraine. South Africa has been through some embarrassing diplomatic gyrations to avoid condemning Russia. Both Brazil and Argentina have flirted with their own brand of Trumpism, not much help for a rules-based international order. Brazil’s swing back to Lula and an AMLO acolyte following immediately after AMLO in Mexico means the two biggest and most populous Latin American economies are as non-aligned as they’ve ever been.
New world out there. Sure is nice having someone in the White House who knows how to think about this stuff.
I wish I knew who you were, cuz your writing and thinking is really quite good quality, No joke
Blush
Hahahahaha!!! Damn you Sir. YOU always make me laugh and make me happy anyway Sir. Hahaha!!! God bless you Sir. You ALMOST make me eliminate my “self-hate”. You are a gift to this world Sir.
You remind me of my father, He had this way of making me self-deflect, Shortly before my Dad died I would feed him by hand in the hospital room It was one of the very very few times I didn’t feel self-conscious in front of my father. Let’s not copy that one, ok??
I can’t see NK soldiers liking to fight there for something to them is meaningless. A bad career/korea move to say the least
My guess with NK’s jundt system, these 3000 persons are being “mitten”. Now Putin knows these troops are unmotivated rejects, well…….He is desperate.
Putin is desperate for ammunition, soldiers and equipment.
Shelling at the front used to be 10:1 in his favor, it fell to 5 and then 3 to 1 during the summer and now it’s 2:1. Given that the quality and precision of Ukraines shells are much better, we are now looking at parity or advantage Ukraine. North Korea had to send people trying to “fix” the poor quality shells they have provided to Russia – not sure how/if that is even possible.
Sign on bonuses for Russian soldiers are up 4-fold in less than a year and already at about the average annual salary – and they still can’t recruit as many as they lose. They have been faking signatures and depositing sign-on bonuses to bank accounts of young men to try meeting recruitment goals. The quality of their soldiers is terrible. They are murdering and raping civilians in the war zone ON Russian ground.
Russia is also running out of armored vehicles and sending soldiers out with no cover, to be slaughtered in a meat grinder worse than ever before. Russias war capabilities and resources are running low and they cannot sustain their current offensive level for much longer – even as the offensive has completely failed in its objectives. Russia will be forced to tone it down soon, while Ukraine continue to build up their abilities. Delivery of cannons fodder from NK will only delay that outcome, unless they come with all the equipment and extra ammo for a real military force.
Before US Election Day, Russia was supposed to have run Ukraine out of the 4 oblasts Putin has declared part of Russia, and also taken some extra pieces of land as bargaining chips. Then Putin and Trump could dictate a peace that gave Putin those oblasts and demilitarized the rest of Ukraine (for later conquest). Biden has brilliantly made sure that Ukraine has build up its own military industry, such that even a Trump win will not give Putin more than a short term advantage. Putins desperate gamble on NK suggests that he now knows that. South Korea has the capacity to begin delivery or artillery shells in massive amounts to Ukraine (but has been holding back) and may well “release the hounds” if NK begin sending its troops to the front line in Ukraine.
All true, but the weight of meat waves is eroding Ukrainian defenses. DPRK troops are just more meat. I think it’s just Putin pulling whatever lever he can, and never mind what unintended consequences it might have. Putin is all in on destroying Ukraine, which will only be rebuilt if it’s independent. Putin won’t bother. He will go on to the next war. He has to, since his economy is entirely dependent upon war spending now. It isn’t sustainable, but it isn’t collapsing anywhere near as fast as I sure would like to see happen.
if the depletion of soldiers and ammo is occurring at rates reported, the collapse will happen very quickly-when it occurs. the longer this conflict stretches out, the better Ukraine can position itself. because they are using drones and targeted ammo, rather than raw recruits in a meat grinder. yes they are losing people, but does not appear to be at the same rate as Russia. the winter may be harsher on Russia than Ukraine this time around. those drones can fly through Russian airspace during any month of the year. same cannot be said for advancing soldiers.
Mud season has just begun and is making offensives a lot more difficult. Vehicular assaults and even the boots of Russian/Korean soldiers are getting stuck in the mud. Drones love “stuck in the mud” fixed targets. Putin went all out to try and take the strategically important town of Pokrovsk before the mud season – he failed.