Headline from CNN.
Though the number of troops committed by DPRK will be limited, North Korea has effectively crossed the Rubicon. Europe traditionally has been North Korea’s gateway to the West and was seen by Pyongyang as more “neutral” than the United States. North Korean diplomats are stationed in most European capitals, and the level of interaction in general (pre-pandemic) has been fluid, much more so than with the United States, South Korea (ROK), or Japan. But North Korea’s decision to send troops to kill Europeans will not easily be forgotten in European capitals. Thus, this tactical move by Kim will have long-term consequences for EU-DPRK relations.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said “If they do deploy to fight against Ukraine, they’re fair game. They’re fair targets.” (CNN)
The shift to a bipolar political world may not be accelerating, but effects of the shift are sure are piling up. China and Russia are a special class of countries, actively undermining post-WWII norms and big enough to matter. They have clients like North Korea which see little hope of benefit from avoiding offense to democracies when their benefactors are so actively giving offense; better all-in than half measures.
There is now a huge gap into which a new non-aligned movement can fit itself, playing the two sides off against each other. Clinton, Bush and Obama all worked to create closer ties with India, but that didn’t do a thing to prevent India from doing business with Russia during Russia’s war on Ukraine. South Africa has been through some embarrassing diplomatic gyrations to avoid condemning Russia. Both Brazil and Argentina have flirted with their own brand of Trumpism, not much help for a rules-based international order. Brazil’s swing back to Lula and an AMLO acolyte following immediately after AMLO in Mexico means the two biggest and most populous Latin American economies are as non-aligned as they’ve ever been.
New world out there. Sure is nice having someone in the White House who knows how to think about this stuff.