Prediction Markets, FWIW

Reversion, seen over the past month. Why? Unclear given small movements in swing state polls.

 

I would expect these odds to match, pretty closely, but they don’t. Liquidity?

Polymarket way off (segmented from US participants?). RealClearPolitics average doesn’t include PredictIt (nor Kalshi).

538’s prediction over time. Green line marks beginning last month of data.

Update, 3:31pm CT:

More reversion (picture over last 3 months):

Proxy? DJT collapses (again), picture over last 3 months as well:

 

7 thoughts on “Prediction Markets, FWIW

  1. Percy Henton

    Unlike the last 2 elections, independents who decided late are going dem like 2012,2000. Harris is leading early voting at a clip notably despite more Republicans voting early and more Democrats not. My guess the non Trump betters are bailing.

    Reply
  2. Macroduck

    Repeating myself here. One possibility is that firms are hedging against the bad economic consequences of a Trump win. Buy “Trump” to compensate for the economic risk should Trump win.

    Not entirely related, the press has taken note of increased implied volatility in financial markets. The VIX is high, relative to actual stock price volatility:

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1xI3w

    The MOVE Treasury volatility index is also on the rise, though not particularly high:

    https://en.macromicro.me/charts/35584/us-treasury-move-index

    USD volatility is the standout among the three, having just hit a high for the year:

    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DBCVIX

    Maybe just the normal reaction to elections, rather than a freak out?

    Reply
    1. baffling

      how do you factor in this week’s crash of the trump truth social stock? is trump selling? lost a couple billion this week alone.

      Reply
      1. Macroduck

        DJT is a high-beta stock. That, alone, makes price wobbles part of the scenery. That latest drop mirrors an earlier rise – pretty symmetrical. That, too, is a common feature of high-beta stocks.

        We should be seeing SEC filings for insider sales, but I don’t see anything in the press. Given the nature of the thing, I’m happy to believe there’s some underhanded stuff going on, but I don’t have a feeling for what it would be.

        Reply
  3. Ivan

    As you move further to the election you move further away from crazy dream scenarios towards reality. All those crazy things you were sure each side would do either materialized or not and you are left with the pools.

    Reply

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