This forecast from the Wisconsin Dept of Revenue based on S&P Global national forecast finalized before the election.

Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark (green), and Wisconsin Dept. of Revenue forecast (light blue), in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, Philadelphia Fed, and WI DoR.

While the official series is above Q4 forecast, the Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark suggests that, when the data are revised, employment will be undershooting the forecast. The forecast itself is up relative to the August forecast, unsurprising given the brightening prospects at the national level.

Figure 2: Wisconsin GDP (black), and Wisconsin Dept. of Revenue forecast (light blue), in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA and WI DoR.

Wisconsin GDP is now outpacing the forecast, so far. However, given the substantial revisions to state level GDP that can occur, I wouldn’t place too much emphasis on this outcome.